26 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We can expect Derivative expiry day volatility. If Nifty spot stand below 6260 then it will favour bears only for a move towards 6200.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 December 2013: -

On 24 December 2013, FII Bought INR 40.67 crs and DII Sold INR 43.09 crs

As expected, it was dull participation by FII and market almost remains directionless. Now we are on derivative expiry day. Last year in the same period Nifty was at 5930 but cracked by 1% on expiry day. so, it depends on market volume for its direction.

Suppose if it stand below my critical 6260 levels then I cannot deny the possibility of 6230 to 6200 in down side. 2013 is memorable year for many global markets but for Indian market it remains pinching. We are almost on year end trade.

Traditionally, Indian market has again under performed global indices for December month. Except technology and reality stocks, nothing has impressed. Buying goes in patches. Still, market may try to be optimistic in near future for long term. I am keeping my analysis same as of Tuesday.

For this kind of day, we must get a threshold point as ‘make or break’ levels. For today it is 6260. One can trade short below 6260 on Nifty spot level. Hold long as long as it holds 6260.  Nifty 6320 will act as stiff resistance. Crossover of 6320 can be indication for massive short covering rally.  

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty December future – It may open flat. It has immediate trading support at 6275 levels only. It can be fine as long as it holds 6275. Once it breaks 6275 then you can expect a fall in market. Volume is going to be low so one should be very time specific for trades. I am hoping for decisive trading move in last hours only.  Nifty December month future should have stiff trading resistance at 6315 and 6335 levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said, “Once it crosses 1814, we have reasons to expect 1854. Right now it is on mini resistance area of 1830. It can take some pause but finally it can try to hit 1854.”

Now, it has surpassed 1830 also and confirming for a move towards 1854. US market can violate any worse global trend to move forward. So far, everything looks good to close 2013 on highest point of the life time.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar