31 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Last trading day of the year. It will face resistance at 6326 to 6350 levels. Be stock specific and be cautious on all banking stocks. Nifty support – 6260.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 December 2013: -

On 27 December 2013, FII Bought INR 116.06 crs and DII Sold INR 207.15 crs

There is no great volume in market yet. It seems that market is still on expected holiday mood. There were some good news aftermarket hours. FIPB cleared Vodafone and Tesco proposal. These are the damage control steps against long policy paralysis. FM claims that India will meet its CAD target and it will be lower than expected.

We may see some better opening due to above reasons. I am not sure that those can be enough reasons to get a direction in market. India market is just waiting for fresh cues by FII to get a direction. Even US market is also trading with dull and holiday mood.

VIX goes above 15 now. I am already sensing that it can either move towards 20 or may try to settle near 12. We will see some decisive move by next week only. Small cap or mid cap indices are still trading not alarming. These might be close to give a caution signal. Banking index is looking alarming from higher levels. Are we close to a melt down? Keep your eye on currency market too.

For today, technical resistance will be at 6324 and 6350. Below 6280-6260 we can see some drag towards 6200. I still believe that if fall comes it can be little bigger in magnitude. It may again slip from higher levels for today also. Let us see how year closes for Indian market. Nifty closed at 5905 on 31 December 2012.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty January future – It should open higher back by off market news flow. I still believe that it may not sustain at higher levels. It will have resistance at 6400 levels. In the lower side it will see threshold support at 6310 levels. If it breaks 6310 then only we can get some decisive moves on trades. It may not be impressive for trading if it holds positive.

S&P 500 (USA) – It remains unchanged and so my study remains same. It gives me a sense that profit taking may start near the resistance of 1854. What can be magnitude of correction?  It depends on market condition. I said this in past also that world’s strongest bulls are at USA. Technical charts are suggesting that now traders should short any rise with stop loss at 1854 for 2-3% pullback at least. If it crosses 1854 then it will again prepare for another higher level like 1880!!!

Regards,

Praveen Kumar