19 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I see FOMC minutes as ‘negative’ for emerging market like India. Caution advised if topping out pattern comes before 6300 of Nifty.
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read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 19
December 2013: -
On 18
December 2013, FII Bought INR 1198.60 crs and DII Sold INR 413.01 crs
Firstly,
it is the time to congratulation to Dr. Raghuram Rajan that he at least dares
to think in positive way. I do not know if it is a courage or adventure. Only time
can answer. Honestly, I was not expecting this kind of decisive.
He left
the words of caution too by saying that he may act before policy. So now he
made the things still jittery. I will fear on every day whenever data comes. Our
country is heading towards election now and so RBI may not get good support
from government. So we are still far away from improvement in growth but some
hopes may come if this works.
Now, let
us see what has happened in US last night. The Federal Reserve announced
Wednesday it would start to taper its aggressive bond-buying program to $75
billion a month beginning in January, propelling the market to a record close. The
FOMC also announced it would lower its monthly long-term Treasury bond
purchases to $40 billion and mortgage-backed securities to $35 billion a month,
both reductions of $5 billion.
Well, it
may be good news for USA but it may not be as good for countries like India. I am
expecting a stronger opening but not as strong as USA or Japan or any developed
market. I am adding a warning sign. Suppose if closing comes near to day’s
lower levels then it will develop an odd pattern. Logical resistance is at
6280-6300-6320-6350.
Visit
again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during
market hours.
Strategy
for Nifty December future – I am expecting
only 40-50 points higher opening at the max. It may open weaker than what SGX
will give us at 9 am today. 6300 may act as still resistance although if
momentum sustain above 6300 then we can expect levels like 6350 also. Recovery depends
on follow up buying. Technical support is at 6260 and 6220 levels.
S&P
500
(USA) – FOMC gave a cheer mood to
the global market. S&P was fluctuating near 1780 before decision and then took
a sharp bounce. Finally, it closed at highest point of the day at 1810. It is
just 4 points away from another all-time high. I highlighted this in past also
that if it breaks 1814 on higher side in December month then expect a wild move
towards 1854 levels which is indicated by gann resistance line for December
month. It is the time to forget yesterday and think about today. One must watch
for 1814 to add fresh long. I cannot deny the possibility of “Blow up top
formation”.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
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