18 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Logically, we should expect 6080 or lower levels but keep your eye on RBI policy only. Market may wait to see FOMC outcome tonight.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 December 2013: -

On 17 December 2013, FII Bought INR 249.93 crs and DII Sold INR 96.83 crs

Money flow goes dull on critical levels. Nifty has broken 50 DMA and closed below the support of 6150-6145 levels. Logically, we should have a bounce as it was falling continuously. Things have not gone well for bulls. In recovery it has failed to cross even 6200 levels. Now, we came on RBI policy today.

It was definitely not a strong close yesterday. I am scared that Nifty spot may try to test the levels of 6080 now. Big question is that will we get support even at 6080. Suppose if it breaks 6080 and sustain then it will open door for 6000.

Some developments on charts are suggesting and hinting for 6000 levels although it can be too brutal to write. This market is falling continuously without any support and refusing to move parallel to global market. I always fear if Indian market starts underperforming. I took a soft long day before yesterday but exited yesterday in very first minutes as it opened weaker than SGX cues.

All eyes will be on RBI policy today. I expect 25 bps hike in repo rate after troubling WPI and CPI data past week. When Dr. Raghuram Rajan was PM’s advisor, it was advocating for ‘rate cut’. Now when he became RBI governor, he is doing exactly opposite.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty December future – SGX NIFTY is hinting for a soft to positive start. I must say that it has full chance of opening lower than what SGX Nifty is hinting. I am expecting Nifty December future to hit 6100 or nearer levels. On higher side, it cannot be safe as long as it is below 6200 levels. It is better to wait for RBI outcome.

S&P 500 (USA) – FOMC outcome will have great potential to impact market now.  It has closed on dot near 1780. I consider this as ‘make or break’ levels. Generally, this kind of day is not easy to trade. If it goes above 1780 then expect a rise to break the challenge of 1794. If it stays below 1780 then I have reasons to expect 1750-1740. One must wait to conclude market behavior at 1780.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar