29 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Resistance is at 6113 and support at 6060 levels. One can expect some direction beyond this range. It is still looks weak from higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 November 2013: -

On 28 November 2013, FII Bought INR 102.91 crs and DII Bought INR 330.51 crs

Nifty hit a high at 6113 levels yesterday and closed at 6091 levels. So far, this is not giving any big threat. It still looks dull and this dull move cause in to weakness anytime. Technical support is at 6060-6030 levels. We must note that Indian market is going through under performance. I am very much concerned with this factor.

VIX is also running near 21 and always issuing threat to move higher. We should note that Indian market is making tops which are lower than previous. It is forming a right angle triangle on chart with base at 5970. At this kind of formation, even single thrust can do big damage.

Most of the time in recent past, I prefer to buy near 6000 but not this time. History suggests that third attempt usually fail in Indian market if it has to save support. Right now 50 DMA is at 6062 levels. Remember, it has extended from 5980 to 6062.

For today’s trading session also we will see trading support to emerge at 6060 and then 6030-6024 levels. Once it breaks 6030-6024 then we can expect rapid fall towards 5970. Any break below 5970 will push bulls in the back seat. On higher side even 6113 levels may not be safe. Only above 6113, it may try to impress bulls.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future will open on flat note. Threshold point support will be at 6115. If it breaks then we can expect fall towards 6080 levels. On higher side 6170 will act as stiff resistance and cross may result a move towards 6200. First day of expiry is going to be important to take cue for rest of the month.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is on another life time high but there is no great firework or euphoria kind situation. US market will be closed tonight. I still consider that 1813 may be under reach but this index has to stop somewhere. So far, it is going without gravity. Technical says that as long as it is above 1790, there will be no fear for bulls. December is traditionally a good month for market but this time story should be different. In my view, people will book some profit on year end trade.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

28 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Trading support will be at 6030. I can expect a dull expiry if it saves 6030 throughout the day. 5970 is a threshold for bears!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 November 2013: -

On 27 November 2013, FII Sold INR 48.53 crs and DII Sold INR 58.13 crs

It was a volatile session yesterday in a narrow band. It is still impressive hat Nifty has saved 6030 as a dot. Does it make sense to say buy on this cue? Well, if we would not be on expiry then then my answer would have been ‘yes’ but right now answer is ‘no’.

I have already said that expiry could head at lowest point of month. I have few good reasons for that. First is that VIX is giving all possible sign of rise. If not today then very soon VIX will shoot up and index will fall. Second reason was also mentioned too many times in recent past. Indian market is just under performing in a big way. When all global indices hitting its all-time high or 52 week high we are near monthly low  

For today’s trading session also we will see trading support to emerge at 6030-6024 levels. Once it breaks 6030-6024 then we can expect rapid fall towards 5970. Any break below 5970 will push bulls in the back seat. On higher side even 6100 levels may not be safe. Still it is derivative expiry day so my confidence will also be less. Let us wait – watch and then trade.

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Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future will open with some optimism. Will this optimism sustain? May be not. Keep an eye on 6035 levels as trading support. I feel that we can see comfortable dead only if it breaks 6035 levels. On higher side 6080 to 6100 will act as resistance. Majority of move will come in second half only. It may be very dull expiry if it fails the break 6035 on Nifty November future or 6030 in Nifty spot.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is on another life time high but there is no great firework or euphoria kind situation. US market will be closed tonight. I still consider that 1813 may be under reach but this index has to stop somewhere. So far, it is going without gravity. Technical says that as long as it is above 1790, there will be no fear for bulls. December is traditionally a good month for market but this time story should be different. In my view, people will book some profit on year end trade.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

27 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Last hope for bulls will be 5970. If it breaks then one must unwind all long deals if you have. Alarming signs are coming near derivative expiry.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 November 2013: -

On 26 November 2013, FII Sold INR 339.16 crs and DII Sold INR 356.90 crs

Now once again FII cash data has turned negative. More important is that once again Nifty has closed near its lowest intraday levels. Many times I have quoted that heavy FII buying used to go at tops. Hope you remember that FIIs were buying near 6200 very heavily few weeks back.  

Worse part is that when almost every single global index is running near their 52 week high, Indian market is very shy from those cues. I consider this as under performance as bad sign for buying. We are just one trading session away from November month expiry.

For today’s trading if Nifty breaks 6030-6024 levels then it will be confirmation of retest of 5970 support levels. On higher side it will face resistance at 6080-6100 levels. Blue chip stocks like reliance, TCS and Bharti is trading on weaker note. I still like to add that if it breaks 5970 then one must unwind all long trades. It can result fall towards 5850 and then towards 5700 also.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future will open on almost flat note. We can expect volatility for today’s trading session. It may not be very reactive in first half as most of the time action goes in second half. Good trading support will be only at 6035-6030 levels which may be tested today. Any further break will cause damage towards 6000-585 levels. Will it break 5985? I cannot deny the possibility.

S&P 500 (USA) – Traditionally, it hit another life time high yesterday but fail to sustain at higher levels. It was just a dull close. It is still not giving any big sign of profit taking but it is now missing momentum. I still believe that 1813 is a meaningful resistance or you can say target also. It is not going to be great days to deal in US market future.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

26 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We are close to expiry and VIX moved by 5% yesterday. Expect pullback again. Key support will be at 6050 levels only. Avoid long at higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 November 2013: -

On 25 November 2013, FII Bought INR 837.80 crs and DII Sold INR 743.82 crs

Have a look at the fall of past three trading days. It slipped from 6212 to 5792. Now in just one day it has covered 62% of the fall. These are rapid and wild swing. On Friday VIX was down by 5% and then we saw Nifty running on Monday. Now, on Monday VIX is up by 5% and it is hinting for a pullback again.

European and American market hit its fresh new 52 week high again. This is long phase of underperformance in Indian market. If global market goes on profit taking then situation can be concerning in India. I quoted many times that we can be optimistic buyer but cannot rule out the odd outcome.

For today’s trading 6140 is likely to be a stiff resistance to deal while market can slip to test the support of 6050 or nearer. We are in derivative expiry week now and just two days away from November month expiry. If things goes wrong here then we can expect derivative expiry going on lowest point of the month.

Although we are 2% away from 5970 but I still like to add that if it breaks 5970 then one must unwind all long trades. It can result fall towards 5850 and then towards 5700 also.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future may give up some premium again as hints are coming from option market. It is likely to see that December month series will also give up major part of premium. Technical support will be at 6090 levels. Break of 6090 will give it a move towards 6070 and then 6055. Note that 6055 will be final support and break can cause panic sell off. On higher side 6140 is a resistance. Although on the cross it can add 25-30 points more to come near 6170 levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – It has started year at 1426 and now almost sitting with gain of almost 380 points. It has to stop some point for correction. I still consider that as long as it is staying above 1790 it will avoid all such possible signal for profit taking. We may see some year-end profit taking next month. Due to long negative divergence every silent day makes me cautious from long. In all, resistance at 1813 and support at 1790.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

25 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It has again saved 5970 and so life for bulls will remain there. Iran signs nuclear deal and world cheers. Shall we expect get some support in India too?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 November 2013: -

On 22 November 2013, FII Sold INR 2.83 crs and DII Sold INR 252.45 crs

I still believe that as long as it holds 5970 levels we can expect for a rise. It may be technical recovery but it deserve rise. Technical indicators are turning for positive divergence. We should note that market slipped with low volume this time. This is also good factor for traders.

I am still concerned with under performance in Indian market. Note that almost all major global indices are hitting their new 52 week higher levels. Indian market is almost on the lowest point of past one month’s trade.

Technical suggest for a strong support at 5970 levels. RSI also gave a positive divergence but this divergence has a meaning only after at least one positive close. This is importance that we close negative from past three trading days in a row. Even after strong global cues we need at least one positive close to conclude for some short term low.

I like to add a warning too with the beginning of this week. Nifty closed below 6000 levels for twice. Technical charts are saying that if Nifty starts closing below 5970 then it may give a fall as brutal as 5850 and 5700 of Nifty. Be optimistic for rebound but be cautious too. Iran nuclear deal will give advantage to India also as India can import crude oil from Iran up to its full capacity.

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Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat to positive today. Assume support at 6000 and 5985 levels. On higher side it still needs to cross above 6070 to attract short covering. It is still a tough task. It is too early to conclude or restore confidence for bulls. One thing is clear; do not buy anything if it slips below 5985 levels. So the range of 6070 to 5985 will critical and possesses technical meaning. It may not be a bad idea to be silent in the range of 6070 to 5985.  

S&P 500 (USA) – It has closed above 1803 and now showing all signs for a move towards 1824-1830 levels. Immediate trading support will be at 1798 and 1789 levels. It is looking like to advance with some gap up today. A moderate resistance may come at 1813 levels also but that resistance can be bought by bulls. I am optimistic for this week.  If a dip has to come then also it will come second half of the week. There is nothing which can suggest sell except negative long – long negative divergence.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

22 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It was so rapid fall to break 6000. Now, do not short unless it breaks 5970 support band. We are just few days away from derivative expiry. Hoping for rebound today!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 November 2013: -

On 21 November 2013, FII Sold INR 59.80 crs and DII Sold INR 650.66 crs

All has sold yesterday. Sell figures in cash market by FII is not surprising. Typically, those figures are just confusing for themselves. Now, suppose if it rebound from here then we can say that FII has sold in cash market on bottom day. Yesterday, I bought softly but I bought. I hope that 5970 will be saved. It is important to note that 5970 should be a strict stop loss for long which one is taking at lower levels.  

We are going to enter in derivative expiry week. This is giving me a sense that people should try to enter December month with some hope. Now, this hope is based on state assembly result which will come on 8^th December. This is going to be interesting expiry. Market is betting on BJP for their favour.

For today’s trading session, Nifty has support at 5970 to 5960 levels. Violation of this range will open space for 5900 to 5850 also. If it saves then we can expect a move towards 6060 to 6100 levels.

I will bet on steel stocks and few selected auto stocks for my list. I must say that comfort levels are not here to buy as of yesterday’s close. We need a higher close and fresh strength. So you still need to judge parameters during trading hours today.  

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Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat today. Immediate trading support will be at 6000 levels. Crossover of 6075 can give a clear buy. Till that time it will fluctuate up – down pattern. It means that range of 6000 to 6075 will just going to be a swing. I hope for higher break in second half which will come again after some consolidation. As long as 6000 holds, I will not short. 6000 to 5990 is a support band for Nifty November month future.

S&P 500 (USA) – I always believe that strongest bulls of the world are at USA only. They saved their market again. What does yesterday’s rebound means? I feel that it will surpass 1803 also and this time it may try to take a hit at 1824 to 1830. As long as 1776 to 1770 holds, it remains open for upward journey. Take this as fair way, bears has one day and bulls has five days kind of ratio. This ratio is perhaps best in US market only.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

21 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: So price correction begins. Nifty can go as low as 6060 levels. Technical resistance will be at 6160 levels. Avoid all possible long deals for few days for caution.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 November 2013: -

On 20 November 2013, FII Bought INR 80.40 crs and DII Sold INR 283.81 crs

FIIs were buying aggressively in past few days and suddenly those dried up yesterday. Buying today is not a guarantee for buy tomorrow. Most important is that FIIs are buying heavily near top. This is not unusual and do not misinterpret that it’s a bullish sign.

S&P 500 took a dip in last hour of trades last night. Problem with Indian market is that it is known to take wild impulsive dip even in good global cues. Yesterday’s last 30 minutes dive was one such example. It was justifying on technical chart too. 6200 was 62% retrenchment. I have already suspected that 6240 will not tested. So far, it moves the way shown in our road map.

We can expect technical resistance at 6160 to 6189 levels. In the down side we can expect support to emerge at 6060. Below 6060, it can support at every 30 points like 6030, 6000 and 5970. Do we have threat to test all? I cannot deny such situation.

I found some stocks yesterday for shorting. We need to see that momentum stocks were negative or weak yesterday. Stocks like Reliance, LT, Tata Steel, RCOM are on dip or profit taking. It is itself showing sign of weak trend ahead.

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Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open weak today. Immediate resistance will be at 6189-6200. Technical charts are suggesting for a move towards 6080 to 6050 levels. I can say that traders should use odd and impulsive rise for shorting only. Do not expect easy day for recovery. Even if recovery comes then also it will be sold at higher levels.   

S&P 500 (USA) – I said to short S&P 500 for a move towards 1770. Here it begins. We saw another dip in last hour of trades. Technical charts are still justifying for a move towards 1770. If it breaks 1770 then we can expect for a move towards 1748-1742 levels. On higher side, it seems that 1803 will remains a top. I can still say that something big is coming in few days or weeks. Long trades are not good to hold or even to take risk.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

20 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I can still say, 6240 will be tougher task to cross or may even untested. Break below 6160, it can see fall and only fall. Let us see!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 November 2013: -

On 19 November 2013, FII Bought INR 1014.61 crs and DII Sold INR 726.55 crs

I said this from past two trading days that Nifty will not get easy cross of 6240. So far, we saw high at 6212 levels. I can say that possibility of a pullback is strong for today. We already some short shorts on yesterday’s rise and hoping for gain today.

Global market mat give us a sign of cooling off very sooner. Asian market is trading soft this morning. Market need to consider if S&P 500 gave top at 1803 itself. Worse part is that Indian markets fail to give fresh life time high. It is so unfortunate on charts.

Technical charts are suggesting for stiff resistance at 6240. I am not claiming that it can test. It may stop even at 6200 or may try to violate the meaning of 6240 also by few points. In terms of supports, we have 6160 to 6140 as crucial support. Do not expect the end of recovery as long as we are above 6160-6140 ranges.

I have no plan to buy top so I prefer to wait and watch near 6240. I found some stocks yesterday for shorting. We need to see that momentum stocks were negative or weak yesterday. It was only reality and banking stocks which were saving the day.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open weak today. Immediate resistance will be at 6250 and then at 6270 levels. Intraday support will emerge at 6190-6200 levels. If it breaks and stay below 6189 for 5-10 minutes then it will be short to trade. Break below 6189 will give levels like 6140-6130 sooner. On higher side we may face resistance at 6240 and then at 6275.

S&P 500 (USA) – There were no great chance in US market last night. It was soft and dull trading session. I still feel that as long as it is staying below 1803 we can expect for dip although it is still early to say this for a top. Immediate short term support is at 1770. S&P 500 is short for trade as of now with a stop loss at 1803 for a move towards 1770.

I always believe that strongest bulls of the world are in USA so I am not in hurry to conclude for massive shorting in the anticipation of top formation.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

19 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: For today 6240 will be a tougher task for bulls to cross. Reforms in China can put India’s money flow as second priority. Technical support is at 6160.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 November 2013: -

On 18 November 2013, FII Bought INR 1158.57 crs and DII Sold INR 655.40 crs

FIIs took full charge to make a stronger recovery. Just in two days of time, Nifty bounced by more than 200 points from its low of 5972. I have already said that it will find its first meaningful and stiff resistance only at 6240. Honestly, I was not expecting this to come so sooner. Perhaps, it is global cues which have given technical figures before time. Dow gave 16000 levels last night.

China has started it biggest reform of last more than two decades. This has triggered massive rally in Asian market yesterday. Whole Asia may gain from this but not India. I fear that some curious money may shift from India to China. We all know how poor our fundamentals are in recent period. Be honest, we have no great hope from policy making in near future. Still, it is my speculation only. Let us see if this happens.

Technical charts are suggesting for stiff resistance at 6240. I am not claiming that it can test. It may stop even at 6200 or may try to violate the meaning of 6240 also by few points. In terms of supports, we have 6160 to 6140 as crucial support. Do not expect the end of recovery as long as we are above 6160-6140 ranges.

I have no plan to buy top so I prefer to wait and watch near 6240. I still find auto and metal as good bet for long side.

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Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat today. Immediate resistance will be at 6250 and then at 6270 levels. Intraday support will emerge at 6190-6200 levels. There is no point to short as of now but we may see some retrenchment from higher levels. All depends on how global market shapes up in afternoon hours. When we have possibility of stopping at US market then it is better to be cautious. My worry is that we are hitting higher targets before than expected.

S&P 500 (USA) – I quoted yesterday,” If this rally has to end then it may fail before 1803. To trade fresh long deals, wait for the crossover of 1803 and then enjoy another 1% to 1.50% rally.” Have a look on the high on S&P 500. It hit 1802.33 and slipped by almost 11 points. Patterns are forming for top but lot of confirmation has to come. I cannot suggest fresh long unless it stand tall above 1803.

I always believe that strongest bulls of the world are in USA so I am not in hurry to conclude for massive shorting in the anticipation of top formation.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

18 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect 6240 as least target in this recovery or upside. Be cautious after a wild gap up today. Enjoy if you have long from past week. Support – 6050 > 6030.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 November 2013: -

On 14 November 2013, FII Bought INR 970.03 crs and DII Sold INR 410.81 crs

Welcome back after a long weekend!!!

Indian market is going to take mammoth gap up of nearly 80-100 points. We need to accept that even on Thursday it took a bull’s gap up. Closing was not as strong as I was expecting but I still believe that if bounce is coming from 50 DMA then it need to sustain for trading.

Recovery has justified by FII huge buying in last trading session. We can add much logic to demand for recovery. There are few facts. One is, fall stop on technical support of 50 DMA. Second is, rise or recovery will depend on the intensity of global market. Nikkei surpasses 15000 marks this morning and gaining almost 1000 points in past few days while we slipped.

Technical charts are suggesting for support at 6050 to 6030 and final support is at 5970. On higher side, I am expecting 6240 as first challenging levels. Take a note that current structure is alarming with a clear hint of fall from higher levels whenever it comes.

I like to buy metal, auto and technology stocks for this week of trades. There is no idea for shorting while we have garden of opportunities to trade long side for good gains.  

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open higher today as SGX NIFTY is giving hint for 6170. It is going to be 80 points higher where we closed on last Thursday. After such a big gap up, intraday may not have big meaning to trade. Let us see if it can able to close well off any day’s low. We still need to see that sort of closing which should be well away from day’s low.

S&P 500 (USA) – We just need few more point to get another landmark of 1800 on S&P 500. Technical charts are suggesting that we can strongly surpass those. As long as S&P stay above 1785 we can hope for another great extension. What can be next for bulls? Yes, it can go as high as 1824 to 1830. If this rally has to end then it may fail before 1803. To trade fresh long deals, wait for the crossover of 1803 and then enjoy another 1% to 1.50% rally.

I always believe that strongest bulls of the world are in USA.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

14 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I still hope for strong trading support to emerge in the zone of 5975 to 5960. Bounce deserve after seven straight negative close.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 November 2013: -

On 13 November 2013, FII Bought INR 299.70 crs and DII Sold INR 253.01 crs

First good news for me is that 10 year bond yield goes at 8.92. Second good news is that all results like SBIN, TATASTEEL, ONGC and M&M, are stronger than expected. Third good news is that bottom is likely to form near my expected 50 DMA support which came at 5975 – 5960 ranges.

Impact of above is likely to be a gap up. Yes, I bought the dip and now I will wait for rebound, a real strong rebound. I have already said that it must see respect for 5975 to 5960 levels. We got a low at 5972. An only disappointing thing was that it got the close near days low again but such things used to happen in panic.

VIX came near to 21 but not manage to get a close above 21. I hope that it will oscillate in the zone of 21 to 18. If this is true then we are set for a relief rally. I am naming it as a relief rally only. One must note that we still need a positive close and then a follow up buying.

I can say that the way SBIN and TATA STEEL gave their number, they deserve re-rating. This can happen now or in coming few quarters, that depends on market but 101% they deserve. I am already heaviy bullish on TATASTEEL from past few months. I may plan to add SBIN too.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open higher today as SGX NIFTY is giving 50 points higher. I was already anticipating this yesterday. So, 6015 is supposed to be a magic support which was mentioned yesterday. I hope to see a higher opening which will proved as ‘bulls gap up’. It means that it should not filled up.

S&P 500 (USA) – Finally, we got the desired bounce and S&P 500 is on its newer life time high. I am expecting it to come near to 1800 as of now. We must note that that we are in last stage of rally but a topping out pattern is still missing. I am expecting the extension of rise and a topping out pattern to come sooner. It may be by this week of early next week. As long as it is above 1770, bears should be silent.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

13 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Today is eighth day from the top of 6348. Nifty can get support at 5975 which is 50 DMA. If it holds then we can expect relief recovery today.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 November 2013: -

On 12 November 2013, FII Bought INR 347.58 crs and DII Sold INR 870.40 crs

In the month of July – August, it was FII who were selling when 10 year bond yield was going above 9%. This time FIIs are silent and DII have sold heavily. Core of the market is that it is afraid of long term bond yield going higher. Adding another spice, September IIP came only at 2% while CPI shoots up above 10%. None were unexpected figure.

Now today is going to be eighth day from its recent high of 6348. Technically it has importance for any trend reversal. I still like to say that intensity is showing for 13 to 21 days of massive bear hunting. If it stops today then only it can save wild moves. It is more important to note that Nifty has 50 DMA at 5974 levels.

It must see respect for 5975 to 5960 levels.

No higher level looks safer for bulls. I can equally say that recovery will also get sold in short term. What I mean to say is that we are now too far away to think for newer high again. In all, it for triple top? Yes, it may be.

VIX is now very close to 21 levels. Any higher break will give panic sell off on NIFTY. We cannot think about recovery on Nifty if VIX close above 21 today.

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Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open down near 6030-6040 levels. Exact dot support is at 6015 levels. I am expecting recovery as today is eighth day from top. Still it is not easy, it is just a view and we need to see for more confirmation before buying. No great expectation but every panic bottom comes in this way only.

S&P 500 (USA) – It bounced in another typical style and kept market confused. We cannot bind this market with levels. I still feel that US market is in strong bulls run but at exhausted state. A short to long term top will emerge at 1780-1800. We are on most crucial week. We will get many such answers now. US indices has almost seen more than 26% this year so far. Let us see what is going to happen in the world when S&P 500 will come in the zone of 1780 to 1800. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

12 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: No sign of revival or pullback is coming yet. Below 6080, it can extend fall up to 6030 to 6000 levels too. Do not hurry to buy dip.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 November 2013: -

On 11 November 2013, FII Bought INR 333.50 crs and DII Sold INR 782.53 crs

DII has actively sold this market while FII has reduced their buying intensity. We saw constant dip in Indian market after ‘Muhurat Trading’ session. Indian market has turned nervous in the fear of rollover of QE sooner than expected as US data has seen remarkable improvement. This is turning a reason for weakness in Indian rupee too. We saw strength in EU and US indices but same is not making impact on market like India.

We have already seen this kind of fear earlier too in the month of July and August. I have already said not make hurry in buying dips. So far, I can say that no significant buy signals are coming on charts.  

VIX is my prime concern. I have already said that VIX is reflecting for rise and indicating fall in index. We just need to see if it can able to close above 21. This bounce is coming from 18 levels and may cause some big damage. Equally, there are few technical indicators which are giving sell with strong negative divergence.

Technical support of 6080 has already broken in a soft way. I am not optimistic for today. A dip is likely to come. Equally, it is not easy to short this market for sixth day in a row. I like to see if come sign of revival come during trading session, else prepare to see 6000.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat. Technical support is expected in the zone of 6120 to 6100 levels. Break below 6100 will cause panic sell off and levels cannot be predictable. On higher side as long as it is below 6190, nothing is safe so prefer for a wild trading day. I can give an idea; prefer to buy a stable bottom as stop loss. Those can be predictable during trading hours.

S&P 500 (USA) – It bounced in another typical style and kept market confused. We cannot bind this market with levels. I still feel that US market is in strong bulls run but at exhausted state. A short to long term top will emerge at 1780-1800. We are on most crucial week. We will get many such answers now. US indices has almost seen more than 26% this year so far. Let us see what is going to happen in the world when S&P 500 will come in the zone of 1780 to 1800. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

11 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Below 6180 it came to 6120 levels. Now, bounces are not going to sustain at higher levels. This market is changing its direction, just few more confirmation required.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 November 2013: -

On 08 November 2013, FII Bought INR 412.03 crs and DII Sold INR 915.63 crs

Indian market is giving us my expected fear. It is under performing and this underperforming can turn to panic anytime now. We may not have great chance for rebound but if it comes then also it will be last such bounce.

VIX is my prime concern. I have already said that VIX is reflecting for rise and indicating fall in index. We just need to see if it can able to close above 21. This bounce is coming from 18 levels and may cause some big damage. Equally, there are few technical indicators which are giving sell with strong negative divergence.

As US indices has advanced on Friday night so we can see some optimism with the opening of this week trades but such attempt of revival will not be strong one. Now, chances are high that Nifty will face resistance in the zone of 6180 to 6200 levels.

Technical support for the day is at 6080 only. Any further break below 6080 will cause this stock for a fall towards 6000 levels. There are many stocks which are giving some troubling signs. Well, so question is where is the hope ‘new all-time’ high. Few weeks back also I suggested that if FIIs are buying heavy in cash market then there is chance of making top. Now, FIIs are reducing their intensity.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open lower as SGX NIFTY is showing slide of 1% right now. Remember, it may repeat what has happened in the month of June – July. Under performance is always a big threat. Once it open near 6120-6130 range then it will be tougher to touch. I will prefer to short pullback rather than shorting.  

S&P 500 (USA) – It bounced in another typical style and kept market confused. We cannot bind this market with levels. I still feel that US market is in strong bulls run but at exhausted state. A short to long term top will emerge at 1780-1800. We are on most crucial week. We will get many such answers now. US indices has almost seen more than 26% this year so far. Let us see what is going to happen in the world when S&P 500 will come in the zone of 1780 to 1800. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

08 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 6180 just came as low for yesterday. Any break below 6180 will cause panic sell off. US indices have also cracked last night. I am repeating again, “do not buy dips immediately”.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 08 November 2013: -

On 07 November 2013, FII Bought INR 479.24 crs and DII Sold INR 715.07 crs

I have mentioned a crucial support of 6180 yesterday. It has tested in last hour of trades. We got a surprise bounce too in morning minutes. This kind of index behavior used to come near this kind of top. I was also saying for some sort of global sell off. We got almost 1% dip in US market last night. Equally Japanese market Nikkei is almost testing 14000 levels.

I have already said that VIX is reflecting for rise and indicating fall in index. We just need to see if it can able to close above 21. This bounce is coming from 18 levels and may cause some big damage. Equally, there are few technical indicators which are giving sell with strong negative divergence.

One must note that we have seen some brutal sell off yesterday in mid cap stocks also which is another concerning fact. It may reflect that investors have fulfilled their appetite. It is quite normal to say that every sell off starts with profit taking. So do not start buying dips immediately.

Technical support for the day is at 6180. On higher side major technical resistance will be at 6240 to 6260.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to take support at 6215 levels. If it goes in a gap formation then we can see some disturbing fall. So, question is that are we going to see 6100 again. I feel that it can go to test 6100-6080 levels. This fall can intensify is global sell off begin which I am already talking from past few days. Let us see what is going to happen next.

S&P 500 (USA) – It has stopped exactly near previous all-time high. It has almost slipped by 30 points from its high. In this process it has broken 1750 also. I am now expecting this dip to continue. Next technical support will emerge at 1730 levels. Well, as I always said, there is no use of technical levels. Take a core that this market can see a dip. Stay away from long and go short.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar