12 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: No sign of revival or pullback is coming yet. Below 6080, it can extend fall up to 6030 to 6000 levels too. Do not hurry to buy dip.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 November 2013: -

On 11 November 2013, FII Bought INR 333.50 crs and DII Sold INR 782.53 crs

DII has actively sold this market while FII has reduced their buying intensity. We saw constant dip in Indian market after ‘Muhurat Trading’ session. Indian market has turned nervous in the fear of rollover of QE sooner than expected as US data has seen remarkable improvement. This is turning a reason for weakness in Indian rupee too. We saw strength in EU and US indices but same is not making impact on market like India.

We have already seen this kind of fear earlier too in the month of July and August. I have already said not make hurry in buying dips. So far, I can say that no significant buy signals are coming on charts.  

VIX is my prime concern. I have already said that VIX is reflecting for rise and indicating fall in index. We just need to see if it can able to close above 21. This bounce is coming from 18 levels and may cause some big damage. Equally, there are few technical indicators which are giving sell with strong negative divergence.

Technical support of 6080 has already broken in a soft way. I am not optimistic for today. A dip is likely to come. Equally, it is not easy to short this market for sixth day in a row. I like to see if come sign of revival come during trading session, else prepare to see 6000.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat. Technical support is expected in the zone of 6120 to 6100 levels. Break below 6100 will cause panic sell off and levels cannot be predictable. On higher side as long as it is below 6190, nothing is safe so prefer for a wild trading day. I can give an idea; prefer to buy a stable bottom as stop loss. Those can be predictable during trading hours.

S&P 500 (USA) – It bounced in another typical style and kept market confused. We cannot bind this market with levels. I still feel that US market is in strong bulls run but at exhausted state. A short to long term top will emerge at 1780-1800. We are on most crucial week. We will get many such answers now. US indices has almost seen more than 26% this year so far. Let us see what is going to happen in the world when S&P 500 will come in the zone of 1780 to 1800. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar