11 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Below 6180 it came to 6120 levels. Now, bounces are not going to sustain at higher levels. This market is changing its direction, just few more confirmation required.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 November 2013: -

On 08 November 2013, FII Bought INR 412.03 crs and DII Sold INR 915.63 crs

Indian market is giving us my expected fear. It is under performing and this underperforming can turn to panic anytime now. We may not have great chance for rebound but if it comes then also it will be last such bounce.

VIX is my prime concern. I have already said that VIX is reflecting for rise and indicating fall in index. We just need to see if it can able to close above 21. This bounce is coming from 18 levels and may cause some big damage. Equally, there are few technical indicators which are giving sell with strong negative divergence.

As US indices has advanced on Friday night so we can see some optimism with the opening of this week trades but such attempt of revival will not be strong one. Now, chances are high that Nifty will face resistance in the zone of 6180 to 6200 levels.

Technical support for the day is at 6080 only. Any further break below 6080 will cause this stock for a fall towards 6000 levels. There are many stocks which are giving some troubling signs. Well, so question is where is the hope ‘new all-time’ high. Few weeks back also I suggested that if FIIs are buying heavy in cash market then there is chance of making top. Now, FIIs are reducing their intensity.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open lower as SGX NIFTY is showing slide of 1% right now. Remember, it may repeat what has happened in the month of June – July. Under performance is always a big threat. Once it open near 6120-6130 range then it will be tougher to touch. I will prefer to short pullback rather than shorting.  

S&P 500 (USA) – It bounced in another typical style and kept market confused. We cannot bind this market with levels. I still feel that US market is in strong bulls run but at exhausted state. A short to long term top will emerge at 1780-1800. We are on most crucial week. We will get many such answers now. US indices has almost seen more than 26% this year so far. Let us see what is going to happen in the world when S&P 500 will come in the zone of 1780 to 1800. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar