13 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Today is eighth day from the top of 6348. Nifty can get support at 5975 which is 50 DMA. If it holds then we can expect relief recovery today.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 November 2013: -

On 12 November 2013, FII Bought INR 347.58 crs and DII Sold INR 870.40 crs

In the month of July – August, it was FII who were selling when 10 year bond yield was going above 9%. This time FIIs are silent and DII have sold heavily. Core of the market is that it is afraid of long term bond yield going higher. Adding another spice, September IIP came only at 2% while CPI shoots up above 10%. None were unexpected figure.

Now today is going to be eighth day from its recent high of 6348. Technically it has importance for any trend reversal. I still like to say that intensity is showing for 13 to 21 days of massive bear hunting. If it stops today then only it can save wild moves. It is more important to note that Nifty has 50 DMA at 5974 levels.

It must see respect for 5975 to 5960 levels.

No higher level looks safer for bulls. I can equally say that recovery will also get sold in short term. What I mean to say is that we are now too far away to think for newer high again. In all, it for triple top? Yes, it may be.

VIX is now very close to 21 levels. Any higher break will give panic sell off on NIFTY. We cannot think about recovery on Nifty if VIX close above 21 today.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open down near 6030-6040 levels. Exact dot support is at 6015 levels. I am expecting recovery as today is eighth day from top. Still it is not easy, it is just a view and we need to see for more confirmation before buying. No great expectation but every panic bottom comes in this way only.

S&P 500 (USA) – It bounced in another typical style and kept market confused. We cannot bind this market with levels. I still feel that US market is in strong bulls run but at exhausted state. A short to long term top will emerge at 1780-1800. We are on most crucial week. We will get many such answers now. US indices has almost seen more than 26% this year so far. Let us see what is going to happen in the world when S&P 500 will come in the zone of 1780 to 1800. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar