19 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: For today 6240 will be a tougher task for bulls to cross. Reforms in China can put India’s money flow as second priority. Technical support is at 6160.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 November 2013: -

On 18 November 2013, FII Bought INR 1158.57 crs and DII Sold INR 655.40 crs

FIIs took full charge to make a stronger recovery. Just in two days of time, Nifty bounced by more than 200 points from its low of 5972. I have already said that it will find its first meaningful and stiff resistance only at 6240. Honestly, I was not expecting this to come so sooner. Perhaps, it is global cues which have given technical figures before time. Dow gave 16000 levels last night.

China has started it biggest reform of last more than two decades. This has triggered massive rally in Asian market yesterday. Whole Asia may gain from this but not India. I fear that some curious money may shift from India to China. We all know how poor our fundamentals are in recent period. Be honest, we have no great hope from policy making in near future. Still, it is my speculation only. Let us see if this happens.

Technical charts are suggesting for stiff resistance at 6240. I am not claiming that it can test. It may stop even at 6200 or may try to violate the meaning of 6240 also by few points. In terms of supports, we have 6160 to 6140 as crucial support. Do not expect the end of recovery as long as we are above 6160-6140 ranges.

I have no plan to buy top so I prefer to wait and watch near 6240. I still find auto and metal as good bet for long side.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat today. Immediate resistance will be at 6250 and then at 6270 levels. Intraday support will emerge at 6190-6200 levels. There is no point to short as of now but we may see some retrenchment from higher levels. All depends on how global market shapes up in afternoon hours. When we have possibility of stopping at US market then it is better to be cautious. My worry is that we are hitting higher targets before than expected.

S&P 500 (USA) – I quoted yesterday,” If this rally has to end then it may fail before 1803. To trade fresh long deals, wait for the crossover of 1803 and then enjoy another 1% to 1.50% rally.” Have a look on the high on S&P 500. It hit 1802.33 and slipped by almost 11 points. Patterns are forming for top but lot of confirmation has to come. I cannot suggest fresh long unless it stand tall above 1803.

I always believe that strongest bulls of the world are in USA so I am not in hurry to conclude for massive shorting in the anticipation of top formation.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar