14 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It may be a dead session before poll result day. Expect volatility in 100 points range but not easily tradable. I will confident to buy if it takes out 7175 levels else I will be silent.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 May 2014: -

On 13 May 2014, FII Bought INR 2026.23 crs and DII Sold INR 649.42 crs

Nifty hit a new all-time high at 7172.35. It was third big day in a row. Do not still think about shorting. I am not betting anything for 16^th May yet as we have two more trading session before that. As per Fibonacci series and Elliott wave analysis, we still have upside target either at 7325 or at 7568. ‘Optimism’ rally always drive a possibility of contra trade direction. In my view, till 15^th May, market has nothing to play for contra.

I have quoted 254 for BJP on Friday and I have explained in my weekend article with complete details. If I am right then NDA will surely come with comfortable majority. If I have to update my projected numbers then it will go in favour of NDA to large extent. Believe me BJP number will be higher than 254. I will not surprise if it came near to 272. This is perhaps my sentiment. So, mathematical study is still justifying for 254. I heard that even ‘satta’ bazzar is also stopping at 254.

It should be a bigger duty to protect capital with a view that if things goes wrong. Well, those can be applied tomorrow. Before that, what is the possibility of missing majority for NDA? Remember, I have quoted only for 286 and even smaller margin can switch thing figure. I will take caution call tomorrow, not today.

Charts are still going with full possibility for up move on 16^th May 2014. Final quote is, if NDA goes in the zone of 300-320+ (which is not impossible), then you can expect fastest 1000 points travel for Nifty. Yes, we may need to bet for even 7800-8000. This rally will at least continue till 25 May 2014.

How does wave looks like? This is fifth wave extension. This generally comes with extremely rapid pace. Have a look, if we compare this to third wave. 100% @ 7325, 127.20% @ 7569, 161.80% 7878. Please refer to the chart.

For today’s trading, we have support at 7080 and 7050. On higher side, we have meaningful resistance at 7175 and then only at 7200 levels. Trading may turn dull today.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – It will get support at 7100 levels. If it breaks 7100 then exit long trades on Nifty future for the day. On higher side, I expect a retest of 7200 levels. I have long which I will give up depending on opening. One thing is for sure, we will see volatility in small ranges of nearly 100 points. It can easily make me nervous. I will not make many deals today.

S&P 500 (USA) – Since early May, I said for a new life time high. It gave 1902.17 yesterday. Is it a bull run? May be not, charts are just satisfying itself only. Now, one should stop adding long or trading long. This may emerge as long term top. So, finally we have a possibility of “May month sell off” which may begin in second half of the month. Technical support is at 1867 levels which is 50 DMA. At this point of time, I am off all trades and strongly winding up all long. Wait for shorting opportunity. What can be first possible target? Definitely 50 DMA which is 1867.