15 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Will it consolidate more or will it add more long on ‘Optimism’? Does not matter but do prefer to hold only lighter positions for overnight. If possible, just stay out. Prepare for either up circuit or down circuit tomorrow in extreme case.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 May 2014: -

On 14 May 2014, FII Bought INR 1520.08 crs and DII Sold INR 410.01 crs

I have already quoted for 7080 as technical support. We saw a lot on dot at 7080 and then a small rebound but it was over all a day for consolidation. Even for today’s trading session, this consolidation may continue. I still believe that market will offer good support at 7080 and 7050 for Nifty.

Optimism over poll result before 16^th May is still on. We need to note that FIIs are more bullish nearer to poll result. Time has come. I will surely go with light position over night. Remember, this kind of event is always a gamble for trading. No matter how sure you are for the outcome for result. I enjoyed pre-poll result rally and I will go on side line.

We may have a chance of missing good percentage movement of market but I may like to give up. I still believe for 254 for BJP but it has nothing to do with my trading decision. A positive factor is that BJD may come out to join NDA. I will light on market but I will not short this market in any case.

Light heart traders must watch poll result on his TV set. Take trading holiday and be safe. For today’s trading session we may move higher again as Optimism may go on its peak again. Wave theory is still supporting market.

How does wave looks like? This is fifth wave extension. This generally comes with extremely rapid pace. Have a look, if we compare this to third wave. 100% @ 7325, 127.20% @ 7569, 161.80% 7878. Please refer to the chart.

For today’s trading, we have support at 7080 and 7050. On higher side, we have meaningful resistance at 7175 and then only at 7200 levels. Trading may turn dull today.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty May future – It will open flat to positive but study remains same like yesterday. It will get support at 7100 levels. If it breaks 7100 then exit long trades on Nifty future for the day. On higher side, I expect a retest of 7200 levels. I have long which I will give up depending on opening. One thing is for sure, we will see volatility in small ranges of nearly 100 points. It can easily make me nervous. I will not make many deals today.

S&P 500 (USA) – I have already quoted that 1902+ may emerge as long term stop before “May month sell off”. Yesterday S&P lost 8 points. It is just a confirmation before lower levels. Shorting US indices may not be bad idea now. It has scope to give target as 2% dip from this point. It means that it is going to test 1865-1860 levels. Further break will give us levels like 1810-1800 in coming weeks. US market may get nasty sell off before weekend. Just add short on any rise and keep stop loss at 1903.