Possible Outcome of general election 2014 – BJP may go near or at 254 seats and INC to limit at 66 seats. NDA to go at 286+ and UPA to go below 100 seats very easily.

I have already quoted for 254 seats for BJP on 09^th May 2014 and bet on ‘Rally in stock price based on Optimism’. This article is about rest of my political conclusion.

This is perhaps most intense general election which I am watching in my life time. We saw war of words, more than those extreme personal attacks. I think that no one is unbiased to analyse. I saw people going brutal if someone refuses to accept their views.  Example – If someone comments against Mr. Narendra Modi, then few of their friends “unfollow” him on twitter or facebook or may be even stopped talking to him or her. In some cases, I have noticed stronger criticism which went beyond limits. This has happened in case of political leaders too.  This election is of ‘most emotional war’ of recent decades. Tolerance limits has reduced substantially in our modern society.

So, dear friends, excuse me if my words go against your views. I am very sorry in advance if my views hurt your political views. Surely, this article may hurt some part of readers. Take it just as a study and my duty.

I try my best to be on side-line when I was analysing data. This given possible outcome is the outcome of my mathematical research.

 I gave weightage to survey agencies based on their total number of sample and I gave higher weightage to those who gave data nearest to poll dates. It has nothing to with NaMo wave or RaGa wave. I have not watched any news channel from past more than two months and focus completely on data analysis. Time to time, I am aware about all those remarks and comments which were given by politicians to impress voters in any mean including policy making talks.

Survey agencies whose data has helped me a lot in my studies are as follow –

Times now, Cvoter, ABP News, Nielsen, The week, Hansa Research, CNN-IBN, The Hindu, CSDS, India Today, Lokniti and NDTV.

Few factors which are trend decider for current election.

1.       Series of scams - UPA is close to pay price for Series of scams

2.       Policy Paralysis - Policy paralysis makes corporate angry and hence employees of private sectors

3.       Social Media - This is most important – higher number tech savvy youth  has voted first time who are surely has great influence from internet and social media

4.       Media - Can we say that Media remains fair through out there election and related reporting? Perhaps not.

5.       Politics of packaging – You all know what I am talking about. Rallies were planned like a corporate event. Event managers were very active. In such cases, number of people in crowd cannot represent true number of voters.

Do you remember a name “Ajit Sarkar”? He used to keep few red towels in some main location of his constituency with a message that give one rupee coin if you want to support me. This was not done to collect election expenses. This was done by him to know true number of voters.  Democracy in India moved so far from these ideological approaches.

Let us come to conclusion fast,

a.       My studies have given 254 seats for BJP on standalone basis. Number of seat will reach to 286 for current NDA. I am saying current NDA as I strongly believe that few more parties will come to join NDA in post result days.

b.      Congress can end up near to 66 seats only. I am not happy with this as the role of opposition in democracy is very important. If this really happen then democracy will lose its meaning in term of opposition as it will be perhaps weakest and less united opposition of past 25 years.

c.       AITC will emerge as third largest party followed by AIADMK. If my forecast goes wrong and NDA misses few seats then Mamta Banargee and Jayalalita will be deciding force of next government.

d.      I will surprise you most with this – Rahul Gandhi might win with smaller margin or may fail to save Ameti seat. At least, it will not be easy win for him. I gave 5 seats to INC in UP which may go to 4 if he loose from Ameti. Surely, such predictions are not easy to make. Even a smaller swing can change the result.

Few prime factors where poll campaign goes wrong.

a.       I personally have strong objection on the language used by political leaders. It gives a very wrong image to new voters.  Remember, national leaders must and must have decency. Thankfully, number of such leaders were no very high.

b.      Ruling UPA failed to impress and they will be responsible for weak opposition.  There were completely missing in plans and there prime leaders were out of the field. It would have been better if they would have come with promises and promises to punish the scam stars.

c.       My third point is most worrying some for me. We all know that a major part of India votes on caste and such related mean. This time, new voters have voted but major part of such youth has lesser political knowledge.  This is based on my personal observation on personal meeting and different interaction sources. Many of my friends may dis-agree with me. I am happy if I am wrong here.

Do you how most Indian are voting? This is most bitter answer.

Their sole objective is “My vote should not be wasted”.  I always believe that there is nothing absolutely right or absolutely wrong in democracy. Still, people need to be less emotional and should try to pick who is right for you in your constituency.

I study the economic cycles. It shows this fact – “It does not matter who form the government, he/She will face extremely high troubles in running the government.” The fate of upcoming government is to face extremely tough economic climate. Long back, people used to ask me if we can see mid-term poll before 2014 or not. My answer was – “I do not know if we can have midterm poll before 2014 or not but chances are bright for midterm for post 2014 election.”

I can take a better call after may 16^th.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar