21 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Now, next is to challenge all-time high at 6820. Technical support for trade is at 6750-6730. Derivative expiry may play key roles now.

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For 21 April 2014: -

On 17 April 2014, FII Sold INR 433.40 crs and DII Sold INR 122.75 crs

We got expected up move on last trading day with good reversal. In continuation, we can expect this rise to extend to make a new all-time high. It is just 40 points away from those levels. At least it can go lot closer. This rise depends on short covering before derivative expiry. It is likely to continue till expiry day. It is not giving sign for weakness yet at higher levels but we may prefer to avoid long neat 6820 for once.  

Short term support is still at 6640 levels which were saved twice in recent dips. Most promising day for bulls was last trading session. Today’s rise depends on follow up buying. From past 12 trading sessions, market is still in range and that gives me a clue that lots of shorts might be in the system. It may drive short squeezes.

Conclusion for the day is that Nifty will get support at 6750 to 6730 levels. On higher side, I am expecting a move towards 6820 levels. It may come very near if not hitting it as a dot. For caution, I will not initiate long if market goes negative or open negative. Key is that it should spend positive for good time to conclude for long.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – I have focused on 6800+ levels and we got that. Technical charts are suggesting that we have some more upside left. One can prefer to trade long if it stand tall above 6820-6825 levels. On higher side it can expect levels of 6880-6900 if we see fulfillment of trading buy conditions. We have technical support in the range of 6770-6760. Either buys at bulls’ crossover or from bulls support. There is no choice to buy from in between levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – I was expecting 1872 by Thursday night but it gave a high almost at 1870. I still see room for upside. There is nothing critical at this point of time. I still expect the test of 1872+ levels at the beginning of this week’s trade. Trading support will be at 1854-1850 levels. On higher side we can expect it hitting at 1872 first. Now, suppose if it sustain well above 1872 then it can try to challenge 1885 levels again. I think that we should first focus on 1872 before concluding for the possibility of 1900 or 19XX levels.