17 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical support – 6660-6640. Trade long for recovery if Nifty spends time above 6700 levels. It is on demand support line now. Final battle for bulls & bear now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 April 2014: -

On 16 April 2014, FII Sold INR 44.69 crs and DII Sold INR 347.70 crs

Nifty hit a low at 6660 while technical support was at 6640. One needs to note that 20 DMA is also at 6660. This gives me a sense that it almost at support after three days of fall. Today will be fifth trading session after hitting an all-time high at 6820. If primary trend is bullish then we can hope for recovery today.   

In other sense, I do not like to short near 6660 – 6670. It is better to wait for the break below 6640 to trade short now. I have said this yesterday only in my intraday updates everywhere. I am just avoiding risk for unnecessary trades here at these levels. If it breaks 6640 then I will catch shorts happily else it is a market which should be bought for recovery. Note that if recovery comes as its true strength then it can be bigger. We have long weekend ahead.

Conclusion for the day is that Nifty will get support at 6660 to 6640 levels. Let it stand above 6700 to trade on long side. Remember, efforts will come from both side. Bulls want to take it above 6750 and bear want it to bring below 6640. No one will give up so easily in this range. Today’s trading session will be most important before expiry.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – I have said yesterday that we may have a chance to buy near 6700 levels for once. I stand with my view. If it stays above 6700, nifty future may be a buy with small stop loss. Important technical support will be at 6680 and 6660 levels. We may have small gap up but that gap up should not fill. It will be better to wait for first 60 minutes to conclude for trend. It is very likely that we will see decisive move only in second half. Confidence will grow if it spend time above 6730 levels only

S&P 500 (USA) – I said, “There is no point to stay short above 1840 levels of S&P 500.” It moved in line with expectation and surpassed 50 DMA. Most important is that we got closing at 1862. Next logical target will be 1872 which may come by tonight. You can name it as weekend rally. Charts are saying that this rise will as long as it is above 1850. I am repeating my analysis just as the past time when it was rising and above 1860. It is replica condition now. Bigger question – Can it hit 1900? It is not easy to answer; I like to see today’s market too to get some charting development. One thing is for sure, if today’s closing goes negative then 1899 would be a confirmed top.