15 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Infosys number and guidance will dominate trend. Nifty may challenge 6820 on higher side. Profit taking from higher levels is likely. Support – 6740.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 April 2014: -

On 11 April 2014, FII Sold INR 362.29 crs and DII Bought INR 364.92 crs

No doubt that it has digested the pain of global weakness and stand well. Now, we have Infosys figures coming today before market opening. Infosys ADR jumped nearly 5% at NASDAQ last night. This might be buying by well-informed traders who took position before result. It is very likely that Infosys will deliver something which can boost stock price.

VIX comes in the range of 29-30 levels. Big funds like FIIs might have hedge their position using VIX. It has odd behavior since 6400 levels of Nifty. I would not be surprised if it tested 30 on dot or might cross also.

Indian market has no impact of global weakness in last few weeks. Now, we need to see the reactions towards quarterly earnings. Along with Infosys, we will have quarterly numbers of TCS, HCL, WIPRO and Reliance too coming this week. We will have WPI and CPI number coming today. We may not have any negative impact of negative IIP number which came on Friday. I feel that market night not remember negatives in this mood.  

For today’s session, Nifty is likely to open little higher nearly 6800 levels. There is no point to short as long as it holds 6750-6740 levels. Higher levels will be determined by Infosys number and its guidance. 6820 may be challenged again.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – in the name of correction, even 50-60 points of Nifty remains big. I avoided forwarding short on weekend. Well, we have a very short week. Nifty April Future may opening higher above 6800 levels and then it will face resistance at 6830 or at 6860+ levels. So far, nothing looks bad. Only surprises can drag market lower from higher levels. I will take call only after knee-jerk reaction of Infosys number. Still, trading index is not my choice.

S&P 500 (USA) – it found support at 1815 but I still feel that fall has not done yet. Yesterday’s bounce may be only an intermediate bounce. We may see some more higher levels today like 1840 but it can sold at higher levels. I still say, as long as it is below 1840-1842 levels, it can fall again to break 1800 levels in the days to come. Take a note that US market is trading below 50 days moving average after a long time. 18001798 may be decisive support. If that breaks then we will see bright possibility for hitting 1740 too. It may happen sooner or later.