28 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: So, bounce is coming and bears got trapped. Another mammoth gap up is coming today after GAS re-pricing. I said to buy dip. Have you bought?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 June 2013: -

On 27 June 2013, FII sold INR 1043.27 crs and DII bought INR 358.38 crs.

Will you really care about above data to conclude for your trades? I am giving you a picture. FII were buying in rise from 5477 to 6230. Then they start selling aggressively from 5900 levels. So far they pulled almost 12k crs from equity segment. Due to sharp depreciation in Indian rupee, FII might be losing in most of their investment. When we have global strength, they should be buying 5600.

I have highlighted Reliance on buy side for whole June month. I bought this stock with my highest priority and I bought twice near 790 levels. We finally got the news and cabinet approved GAS re-pricing on higher side. Due to strength in Reliance, we may see a fresh up move. All oil production companies will open higher today.

US market moved higher again. So, now world forget about QE shock which was expected and obvious. Indian traders are still holding shorts. Today is the first day for new derivative series. It will open on strong note.

Technical charts are suggesting that we should see a move towards 5750. Well, but it will open at 5750. Then just prepare to see 5800 levels too. I bought the low and I will bet for mammoth rise in index too. In my sense we should start thinking about 6000 levels or more too.  

People found value in stocks when NIFTY was at 6100 and they do not find any value at 5600.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX JULY NIFTY is up by 80 points now and trading at 5757 levels. What more to write. It will open so higher that it will limit trading moves. Technical charts are still saying for buy in dip. I suggest buying some dip after gap up. Somehow Nifty July future will go higher towards 5860 levels in coming few days. Technical support will emerge at 5700 levels.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

I already said that technical charts are saying that it may try to reach 1660 as long as it holds 1584 now. Crossover of 1600 has generated momentum and confirmed the trend. We may see pause near 1620 levels. Let us see weekend closing. I am sensing for some resistance at 1620-1624. Cross over will give 1643 to 1653. I still advocate for buying only. Buy supports and resistances too. 

27 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect GAP up to trap bears from 5600. Cross above 5640 will give 5683-5700. A litmus test @ 5683. Weak GDP data fuel rise in US market.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 June 2013: -

On 26 June 2013, FII sold INR 547.79 crs and DII bought INR 336.98 crs.

It was another day of money outflow by FII in Indian market. We saw Indian rupee hitting 60.63 against USD. All thanks to RBI and MoF. It is weak Indian Rupee which has given a dent in Indian market. If you look at global indices then one can understand that those are out of ‘QE rollback’ shocks. Weak rupee is going to fuel inflation further as fuel price hike is coming soon. Now, in order to improve sentiment to minimize dollar out flow, RBI need to opt for bank rate cut. It is beyond my understanding what RBI is waiting for.  

I still have a view that I will not short this market from 5600 levels as positive divergence is emerging. As long as 5570-5545 is saving, I cannot see any big reason to sell stocks without any recovery. Yesterday’s last 30 minutes selling was due to rupee weakness. Market gave a huge punishment to many mid cap small cap stocks which are supposed to give poor quarterly numbers on currency weakness. At some point market will start ignoring ‘pessimism’. We should be close that point. 2-3 days in time and 1 percent on Nifty may be considered as approximation.

I have already said yesterday that Nifty need to stand above 5640 at least. Once it crosses 5640 then litmus test will come at 5690-5700. My technical condition remains same. It is looking like to see higher opening. So, bears may see a trap now.

Cabinet – CCEA meeting is scheduled today to discuss gas pricing issue today.

Strategy for Nifty June future – SGX NIFTY is giving signals for much better start. What is the reason for this kind of higher trade on SGX Nifty? If we really going to see opening above 5640 (very likely) then we will see bears to cover their shorts by force. It may hit 5683 then. I said earlier that 5683 is litmus test point for Nifty June future. Let us see if it crosses by today.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

From a low point of 1560, it got more than 3% rebound and closed well above 1600 marks. I have already said that we may see fresh momentum on rise on the cross of 1600. We got the condition and now expect further massive rise in US market. Technical charts are saying that it may try to reach 1660 as long as it hild 1584 now.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

26 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A before expiry, expects lots of actions. Technical support is at 5570-5545. Will BANKS recover? It is the last need now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 June 2013: -

On 25 June 2013, FII sold INR 1285.86 crs and DII bought INR 824.36 crs.

FII has sold more than 10000 crs in equity and more than 26000 crs in debt market so far in the month of June. Indian market never saw this kind of money out flow in recent years. It was market under – performance which has triggered this selling. Market has tested lots of patience and Indian market is in a range from more than a year. When all global indices were hitting all time high, India was struggling.   

Nifty has saved 5545 levels yesterday and almost bounced by 96 points before last hour sell off. On higher side it needs to stand above 5690-5700 levels which are a tough resistance to cross now. It has washed more than 60 points in last hour of trades which was not small. Definitely, it was FII selling in last hour and banks were on their target. India VIX has a high at 22.11 and still closed above 21 levels. It is yearly high for VIX. (Stock exchange should give VIX for trade). Undoubtedly, it is a critical levels and showing panic in the market.

Technical charts are still suggesting for some recovery which may be driven by short covering. It is only banking stocks which have refused to recover. We have long black candle + Doji which might be the first hint for short term trend reversal. Technical support for Nifty is at 5570 and 5545 or in the same range.

Recovery is still not confirmed. Nifty needs to stand above 5640 and then it needs to cross 5690 too. It is very likely outcome before expiry tomorrow.

Strategy for Nifty June future – SGX NIFTY is giving signals for little better opening with 20 points gain. Thanks to some recovery in US market. Expect trading support at 5570 to 5545 levels. On higher side expect some sustainability in trade if it manages to stand above 5642 only. If world does not get any further shock then we can expect the cross of critical 5683 today. It’s not a bet, it is only a hope.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

I was expecting 1600 in recovery and we saw a high at 1594 yesterday. Note down very strongly that US market will be the best part of the world in term of price performance. It is still expected to see a high day today with a real attempt towards 1600. Next move will depend on failure or success of 1600 marks. Cross above 1600 brings bulls momentum back.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

25 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If global cues turn supportive then first bounce will come in Indian market. Technical support is at 5545 and confirmation point for bounce is cross above 5640.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 June 2013: -

On 24 June 2013, FII sold INR 1552.98 crs and DII bought INR 931.11 crs.

Day after day FIIs are selling huge. So far, in terms of money flow, this is worse month since September 2011. They sold INR 9073 crs so far. Suddenly world is bleeding from past just three days. Nifty lost more than 200 points in past two days.

Market is absorbing too many shocks. Firstly, it was rupee weakness then it got fed shocker and now it is digesting China fear. Almost every single global index is heavily oversold in short term. A bounce or recovery deserves but before that we need silence in news flow. Some sort of bottom buying has happened in US market last night as it was well off the lows and futures are also little higher.

Technical charts are giving support but every single support has broken in past 3 – 4 days. I was expecting it to save 5600 but that has also broken and now hopes for support at 5545. I must say that it should not come close to 5545. Small positive divergence is emerging on daily chart and based on which I am betting on recovery.

Note some threshold point. If Nifty manages to stand tall above 5640 on 5 minutes chart then only expect some sustainable recovery. Is it going to happen? Let us see. Note that INDIAVIX is now well above 21, even yesterday it shoots up to 10%.

Strategy for Nifty June future – SGX NIFTY is giving signals for a flat start which is itself a big thing. It may improve more before our market open. We got 45 points of intraday recovery yesterday from low. It is giving a sense that 5556 should for some time. Crossover of 5630 will generate for the test of 5683. A point of 5683 will be litmus test for recovery.  

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

US market is at the lowest point of past two months of trade. Now it hit a low at 1560 with good cool off in VIX. It is still concerning that it has closed below 100 DMA. I am expecting 1560 to hold as panic low. We can expect recovery towards 1600 now. Remember, Tuesday has a good history for bulls. Will it be another rising Tuesday?

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

24 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: As long as 5600-5610 holds, we can expect a short covering bounce on derivative expiry week. Normalcy will come from early this week in global market.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 June 2013: -

On 21 June 2013, FII sold INR 1768.60 crs and DII bought INR 1196.55 crs.

It is almost 8000 crs selling so far in June month by FII. They have sold massively in bond market too. Those have caused a weaker Indian rupee. I must say that long under performance was already indicating for this FII selling. I believe that weak FII money is moving out of Indian market. It is difficult to say if it is over or not. FII have sold after May 2012. So, we got May month selling and it is now more than a month. It is looking like we are moving towards the end of this selling.

Technical charts are indicating that we are moving towards some phase of normalcy after Fed shock. Nifty has early sign of positive divergence on daily chart. We got five weeks of consecutive selling and now we are on sixth week.

I will again focus on Indian rupee and I want to go near to 58 only to feel some comfort which is still too far. It is looking like market has overdone on fed decision. At least I did never believe that QE is going to be forever. Global market will get some sort of support from early this week itself. Fresh worry is coming from Greece again with a threat of mid-term poll. Let us see how it is going to shape up.

Nifty has technical support at 5600-5610 levels. As long as 5600 hold you can expect a short covering rally as we are in derivative expiry week. Derivative data is suggesting that people are still betting on further downside but those may see a trap if 5600 saves.

Strategy for Nifty June future – SGX NIFTY is giving a sign of 20 – 25 points’ lower start as of now. June month future is giving for opening at 5630-5635. I am feeling for little better start than what SGX is giving right now. After opening, we must see if it can save 5610 support or not. If it saves 5610-5600 then we should prepare some recovery. I will be more optimistic if we get trades above 5683 somehow. I will bet strongly on short covering after a cross above 5683. You can say that market feel comfortable above 5683 only.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

Now majority of traders should agree with above sentence. S&P got exact pause at 100 DMA which was at 1577 and Friday’s low was also same. Assume that 100 DMA will not break so easily. I want a close above 1600 to conclude for strength. So, today will be a day to wait. Caution – if it breaks 1575 then it will prefer to make a move towards 1540-1530. Let us see what market wants.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

21 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Another bad opening ahead below 5600. Expect a bounce from low only if RBI comes to help Indian Rupee. Support – 5570 > 5550.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 June 2013: -

On 20 June 2013, FII sold INR 2094.06 crs and DII bought INR 1332.50 crs.

FII has sold massively again in Indian market. They sold 6351 crs so far in June month series. It was not only QE which has changed sentiment but also weaker Indian Rupee that has played important role. Nifty is 600 points away from its recent 52 week high. Only small selling by FII pulled Indian market so much. Just think that if they really sell.

When market was rising it was never looking to move lower. Now, when it is going down then it is not looking to recover. Fear can do this kind of damage. US market slipped further 2.30%. It is overdone but there is no solution for this kind of fall. US market is still down by only 6% from its all-time high. It is looking heavily overdone and over sold for two days kind of time frame.

My prime concern is still Indian rupee. Every 10% depreciation of Indian rupee cost 0.80% on WPI and 0.60% (of GDP) on CAD. Without RBI intervention it is just not possible to see any pause in ongoing impact on equity, commodity, forex or bond market. This logic is just not acceptable that it is happening all across the world. Truth is that nothing is comparable like Indian Rupee. On 01 May 2013, Rupee was at 53.66 and now on 20 June it was at almost 60.  Imagine the damage. Many mid cap and small cap stocks will see the impact on its quarterly numbers. So things are clear enough that do not invest money in mid cap or small cap stocks in dip. Be in index stocks only.

Technical charts are now giving support at 5620 – 5600 levels. Further break will give 5550 levels too. This market has entered in a phase where nothing is impossible for bears. The way Asia is trading now, it is all set to open 1% lower again. Now, only god can help equity price.

Strategy for Nifty June future – SGX NIFTY is again trading with a loss of 60 points and hinting opening near 5580. It has slipped beyond my imagination. The way it is trading at 5580 is showing the panic. We are almost down by 300 points in a matter of few minutes. Take 11% down levels from 6230, it is coming at 5544. Below 5630-5620, only meaningful support is at 5544. Expect a strong rebound if RBI comes forward to help rupee.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

I thought that I should see 1600-1598 but it has overdone and hit even 1585. Now one can expect rebound as relief rally. It is true that US market got follow up of selling and so this market is turning short on rise. Shorting should be done after a rise only. Now, I do not know the magnitude of bounce. Immediate support is at 1580-1575 levels.

Technical charts are crying for a bounce but it is still hard to say is it coming or not. Buy only a positive market.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

20 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Asia under sell off after Ben hint that end of easing is near in USA. Technical support is at 5750 now. A huge gap down ahead which will follow by recovery too.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 June 2013: -

On 19 June 2013, FII sold INR 544.96 crs and DII bought INR 415.82 crs.

FIIs has sold INR 4257 crs so far in the month of June in cash market. This is definitely concerning now. They sold for eight days in a row. So it is looking like medium to long term under performance by Indian market has tested patience of FII and few have decided for exit.

So, finally conclusive words came from fed chairman Mr. Ben Barnanke that we QE may end in the mid of 2014. Market was expecting this to end in the mid of 2015. It has given 1.35% dip in US market and invited for some more extension of fall in the world. In a true sense, now US economy and stock price will see the litmus test. Are they ready to buy stocks without QE? If “yes” then nothing much to worry, if “no” then everyone should be worried a lot now.

My take on post fed speech is that it has not given the expected brutal sell of yet. It is opening the space for recovery. Indian market should open down somewhere near to 1%.

Let us talk about real concern for Indian market. I am very much worried about the weakness of Indian rupee. Every 10% depreciation of Indian rupee cost 0.80% on WPI and 0.60% (of GDP) on CAD. How can we justify the silence by policy makers? If they were waiting for US fed decision (as hinted by finance minister) that has also came. Leaving currency to stabilize by its own is extremely hazardous decision.  

Technical charts are still suggesting for support at 5770-5750 levels. We are going to see start at that point. If Indian rupee moves below 59 then situation will be extremely concerning. Ignore all technical levels and keep an eye on Indian rupee. Free float mode can take it to 59.00-59.30 levels.

It is likely to open below 59 levels and then it must try to save 59.30 levels. Will RBI come forward to save?    

Strategy for Nifty June future – SGX NIFTY is trading with a loss of 60 points and hinting opening near 5760. On the adverse outcome by fed, it was expected. Recent recovery wave is from 5692 to 5867 and 61.80% fall came at 5758 levels. We will open near those levels. Technical charts are not hinting for more weakness as long as 5750 hold. I will look for currency market. Break below 5750 will give a test of 5725-5710 too.

Asian market is weak but not in panic.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

It has not traded above 1653 and given edge to bears. Now 50 days moving average is at 1616 levels which are still 12 points away. The way it has broken, it seems that we should prepare to see 1600-1598 levels. Remember, it has failed at stiff resistance @ 1653 levels. 20 EMA is at 1633 levels. A red close today will be a confirmation of upcoming strong dip. What I am saying is that preferred to see more red if we get follow up selling. I do not want to speculate on follow up trades. So far, it is profit taking, not the panic yet.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

19 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty came just above 5860 and the slipped. Condition remains same; it has to stand tall above 5860 to get further gain. Support at 5800-5790. Caution ahead fed meeting.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 June 2013: -

On 18 June 2013, FII sold INR 597.38 crs and DII bought INR 582.65 crs.

FIIs has sold INR 3712 crs so far in the month of June in cash market. This is definitely concerning now. They sold for six days in a row. It is reflecting that money is flowing out when rupee is weaker. I can say that Indian Stock market is trying its best to fight against all odd.

US market moved higher to close at the highest levels of past two weeks. Those markets look stable before fed meeting which is scheduled today. I am concerned for weakness in Indian rupee. It hit 58.82 yesterday too and this was prime cause of yesterday’s fall from high. One can say that FII were selling but it is very important to understand the cause which drives them to sell.

It looks like RBI and government of India left currency market for free float. They have not taken any action yet. Now this is alarming situation and they cannot sit ideal. For today also, stock market might be nervous for the same factor. Any weakness below 59 will cause the test of 60. No action will drive Indian rupee towards 63-64 levels. Indian policy makers are just best in doing one thing, i.e. ‘doing nothing’.

Last year also I have criticized the hope over FDI in retail. Look at current situation. No fresh dollar came yet and rupee weakness continues. Policy maker has to understand that they need to act more than making policy.   

Technical charts are still suggesting for support at 5790-5800 levels which is almost the range of 200 DMA. On higher side we need to stand tall above 5860 to see further gain. Yesterday it came but failed in just few seconds confirming the resistance.  

Strategy for Nifty June future – Right now SGX Nifty is higher just by 10 points showing concerns over weak Indian rupee. Immediate technical support will be at 5800 and 5785 levels. On higher side 5860-5870 will be key resistance and threshold. There is no levels and direction for today. All will depend on Indian rupee movement. It is better to move out of long if Indian rupee breaks 59 also.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

I was expecting 1653 and I got it on the higher side. We have double bottom at 50 DMA and now looking good before fed meeting. It is looking like that market is turning optimistic before Ben Barnanke’s decision. For today’s session, if it stands above 1653 then news may be in favour of bulls. Technical charts suggest that crossover of 1653 will give a move towards 1675-1688.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

18 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty need to stand tall above 5860 to get further gain. Support stand at 5800 levels. Caution needed before fed meeting.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 June 2013: -

On 17 June 2013, FII sold INR 165.10 crs and DII bought INR 361.53 crs.

Why I never give more important to cash FII figures? Look at a fact that FIIs were buying aggressively when Nifty was near 6200 and selling when Nifty is at 5800 levels. Well, it is still a bad signal for India’s money flow. It is signaling that FIIs are may fed up from Indian market for short term money investment.

RBI has again disappointed street but market forget it as ‘no event’ and advance higher. It has saved the possible short covering. Derivative data suggest that traders are still shorting this market. Now, USA market is very close to get some decision on QE. Fresh fear is that there may be some tapering statement over QE in upcoming fed meeting. One day they say ‘yes’ and next day the say ‘no’ on speculative mode. The way US indices are moving, I feel that it is better to be cautious note.

Technical charts are still suggesting for continuation of rise. When Nifty was falling from higher, 5850-5860 levels has acted as strong support before failing. Now, that level of 5860 is acting as tough resistance. I will try to maintain my bullish views only if we spend good time above 5860 levels. It is just 12 points away but this is most crucial 12 points.

In the downside, we will get good trading support at 5800. It is likely to be a choppy session.

Strategy for Nifty June future – Right now SGX Nifty down by 5 points and it is trading at 5835. It is looking for a pause before crucial 5860-5880 levels. It will not be a good sign if we fail to cross 5860-5880 levels today. Failure will cause higher selling. Market dynamics are showing that if fall comes then even recent low of 5680 might be under test.

Can we say that bounce has done? It cannot be concluded so easily but I am also turning cautious before fed meeting.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

I said for the biasing towards 1640-1650 and it hit a high at 1647 before giving up gains. I am equally saying that failing above 1650 is also not a good sign. Stocks are on flip flow mode before fed meeting. It is not a bull’s friendly moves as of now. Expect a choppy session. Remember last three Tuesdays were not good for market but before that we got rise for 21 consecutive Tuesdays.

What’s coming this Tuesday?  S&P 500 is still above 20 EMA.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

17 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: As long as it stands above 5780, it can try to take a move towards 5860 levels. Another crucial RBI’s monetary policy review is coming today.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17June 2013: -

On 14 June 2013, FII sold INR 305.68 crs and DII bought INR 910.62 crs.

Above money flow is a hint for lacking FII’s confidence now. FII has almost sold INR 3000 crs in June month so far. I am not giving very high important to these figures but equally I cannot even neglect those. It is a known fact that FII has invested their money in very selective stocks and many has not performed yet.

We have another crucial monetary policy review. There is no expectation this time as INR has depreciated very sharply in past few days. It hit 58.98 few days back but now it is at 57.50. This must be beyond comfortable limit for RBI. Economy data like WPI and IIP numbers are still giving a hope for rate cut. My expectation is that RBI will give 25 bps CRR cut.

Technical charts were giving this hope of recovery from Thursday onwards itself. US market has slipped over 0.60% on Friday night. Still Indian market may try to advance and it will take cues from RBI policy. If policy comes supportive for market then we will see good rise and short covering too. One must note that this market has ample short position on hold right now. Those shorts will cover if RBI gives anything positive.

We got expected fuel price hike on this weekend which is good news for Oil Marketing Companies. Let us see RBI policy before deciding next move. I hope for positive for market.

Strategy for Nifty June future – Right now SGX Nifty is down by 15 points which is am impact of Friday’s weakness in US market. Technical charts are suggesting that it will get immediate trading support in the zone of 5780-5770 levels with final support at 5740. A break below 5770 can give 5740. On higher side, cross above 5825 will invite short covering. We should be ready for extreme volatility. I prefer to trade in post policy hours only.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

It has saved 50 DMA twice in past few days. I have already said for 1624 as support and S&P tried to take support there. Now I believe for choppy movement till Fed meeting. It will move in the range of 1608 to 1650 and will not break on either side. I am assuming for trading support at 1624 & 1618 for today’s trading with some higher biasing towards 1643-1650.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

14 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Support stand at 5700 zones. It is still challenging to come at 200 DMA which is at 5798 marks. Higher opening and higher trading is expected. I bought.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 June 2013: -

On 13 June 2013, FII sold INR 558.06 crs and DII bought INR 713.77 crs.

So far June month is knows for FII’s money outflow. They sold INR 2644 crs so far. More importantly, they sold for four trading sessions in a row. This is definitely a disturbing pattern but mostly FII prefer to sell at lows. I have already warned for this situation when I got first sell figure in the zone of 5950. When they are not earning much from Indian market then it was bound to happen at some point.

US market reverses last night with good respect for 50 days moving average. When we close Dow future was down by 55 points but it manages to close with a gain of 180 points. This may give us a higher opening.

Indian rupee came little stronger at 57.913 after an extremely volatile day. It is floating on its own note right now and it seems that government will take few strong steps very soon. I can say that it is speculator’s stability.

I had already said earlier also that one should not short at 5700 without any technical recovery. One should watch RSI before shorting. Technical charts are suggesting that we have bottom for this fall as of now. 200 days moving average is at 5798 levels which are still 100 points away from current levels. First challenge for Nifty is to cross 200 DMA. Technical support is at 5680 and then at 5640. On higher side, crossover of 5750 will give some rapid rise based on short covering.

I said for shorting on metal stocks earlier. Look at the price of all metal stocks.

Strategy for Nifty June future – Right now SGX Nifty is higher by 40 points and it is at 5735. We may have even better opening with crossover of 5750. If it manages to stand above 5750 then we can expect rapid rise towards 5808 levels. Expect trading support at 5710-5700 after higher opening. Today should be a “White Friday”. Will the selling come at higher levels? It is very difficult to say but it is looking like this kind of selling will not come today.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

It has saved 50 DMA again and a bounce. It was a strong and tempting bounce. As I said earlier, crossover of 1633 should generate a target of 1653 on higher side. If today’s first hour will be green then expect the test of 1653 and then another wave of rise before a final fall. I was expecting a rise from 50 DMA but not a newer high. Weakness below 1624 will give you frequent test of 50 DMA before final break.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

13 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Now we will enter in the support zone. Expect weak opening and support at 5710 – 5702 levels. This is first and last hopes for recovery.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 June 2013: -

On 12 June 2013, FII sold INR 1060.17 crs and DII sold INR 717.89 crs.

FII has sold five out of eight days of June month yet. Worse is that they sold in cash market for past three days in a row. If you look at recent few months’ money flow then you may realize that FII were buying heavy at peak and selling heavy near low.

Last night US market opened higher by 0.60% but closed lower by 1.00%. It slipped again on the fear of roll over of QE. Now, this market is creating dilemma. One day expecting ‘rollover’ and next day refusing. Japanese market is down by nearly 6% right now.

All news is not bad for India market with morning. Government of India may announce NRI bond to strengthen Indian rupee. Fitch has changed India’s outlook from ‘negative’ to ‘stable’. It has taken out the possibility of down grade.

Technical charts are suggesting that we are nearer for a bounce but bottom has not defined yet. It is looking to take support at 5710-5702 levels. Well, any further failure will create panic. Market has entered in over sold zone and any fall in this zone can be brutal. So, this is first hope and last hope.

Finance minister is going to address at 10 am today about currency weakness.

Strategy for Nifty June future – Right now SGX Nifty is down by 60 points and it is giving quote at 5712. It will not open that much weaker. Now support if we open near 5710 then we has higher chance for a bounce. At least, we cannot short at low after this kind of gap down. Break below 5710 will cause fall towards 5650 levels too. So far, Nifty has slipped by 500 points from its recent top. How much more is coming?

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

It has broken its mildly bullish pattern and closed on 50 DMA which is at 1608. It is opening the possibility of re-test of 1598 levels. This is the fall which is coming in over sold one. This is happening first time in past 6-7 months. There is a possibility of mild bounce but bounce may left out. Take a note that when it was rising, it has denied many corrections too.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

12 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Panic fall below 5860 gave 5780 so far. It should extend towards 5764-5710 levels too. On higher side resistance will be at 5850 levels. All eyes should on INR, IIP & CPI.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 June 2013: - 

On 11 June 2013, FII sold INR 885.85 crs and DII sold INR 313.42 crs.

I have already said earlier also this market is testing patience of FII. They value of investment has reduced further due to weak rupee. Bank of Japan has refused to do anything further to boost economy. This has given additional pressure on global market. Every single global market is in red. So, can we say that we are entering in the phase of sequential roll over of easy money? Sooner or later, it has to happen. US market has slipped again on the same fear.  

Prime concern for Indian market is weak rupee which hit 58.98 against US dollar yesterday. I have warned for this situation last year itself. Few days ago I have highlighted about FII sell figure which came in the range of 5900-6000 levels, which has happened first time. Now those sell figures may intensify. A weak rupee is adding fuel to this money out flow. Just forget IIP and CPI data if rupee gives any further weakness. No good news is good news for market in this kind of worse sentiments.

Technical charts were giving the hint of this selling due to H&S pattern and we got it. Now there are few key levels to watch. Firstly, note that 200 days moving average for Nifty is at 5794 levels. Secondly, take 61.80% retrenchment from 6230 (against the rise from 5477 to 6230), it will come at 5764 levels. So on charting basis, we are entering towards support levels. Market will bounce on the day of excessive pessimism.

Expect IIP data to come above 3% and CPI below 9.50%.

Strategy for Nifty June future – Expect another soft opening for market as SGX Nifty is giving 30 – 35 points downside opening. After weak opening keep an eye on 5750 levels. Any failure below 5750 will cost us for fall towards 5710-5700 levels. On higher side we will see resistance at 5850 levels. Shall we buy at low after a gap down? Yes, I may opt to buy depending on rupee situation.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

So, it is a fall below 1633 again. Take a note that S&P 500 has two important supports; one is at 1608 and next at 1598. I prefer to ignore the mild bullish pattern and sensing for re-test of 1598. On higher side it has failed the mentioned resistance of 1653 levels. It is the fear of roll over of QE and it will not end so soon.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar