14 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Support stand at 5700 zones. It is still challenging to come at 200 DMA which is at 5798 marks. Higher opening and higher trading is expected. I bought.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 June 2013: -

On 13 June 2013, FII sold INR 558.06 crs and DII bought INR 713.77 crs.

So far June month is knows for FII’s money outflow. They sold INR 2644 crs so far. More importantly, they sold for four trading sessions in a row. This is definitely a disturbing pattern but mostly FII prefer to sell at lows. I have already warned for this situation when I got first sell figure in the zone of 5950. When they are not earning much from Indian market then it was bound to happen at some point.

US market reverses last night with good respect for 50 days moving average. When we close Dow future was down by 55 points but it manages to close with a gain of 180 points. This may give us a higher opening.

Indian rupee came little stronger at 57.913 after an extremely volatile day. It is floating on its own note right now and it seems that government will take few strong steps very soon. I can say that it is speculator’s stability.

I had already said earlier also that one should not short at 5700 without any technical recovery. One should watch RSI before shorting. Technical charts are suggesting that we have bottom for this fall as of now. 200 days moving average is at 5798 levels which are still 100 points away from current levels. First challenge for Nifty is to cross 200 DMA. Technical support is at 5680 and then at 5640. On higher side, crossover of 5750 will give some rapid rise based on short covering.

I said for shorting on metal stocks earlier. Look at the price of all metal stocks.

Strategy for Nifty June future – Right now SGX Nifty is higher by 40 points and it is at 5735. We may have even better opening with crossover of 5750. If it manages to stand above 5750 then we can expect rapid rise towards 5808 levels. Expect trading support at 5710-5700 after higher opening. Today should be a “White Friday”. Will the selling come at higher levels? It is very difficult to say but it is looking like this kind of selling will not come today.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

It has saved 50 DMA again and a bounce. It was a strong and tempting bounce. As I said earlier, crossover of 1633 should generate a target of 1653 on higher side. If today’s first hour will be green then expect the test of 1653 and then another wave of rise before a final fall. I was expecting a rise from 50 DMA but not a newer high. Weakness below 1624 will give you frequent test of 50 DMA before final break.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar