26 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A before expiry, expects lots of actions. Technical support is at 5570-5545. Will BANKS recover? It is the last need now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 June 2013: -

On 25 June 2013, FII sold INR 1285.86 crs and DII bought INR 824.36 crs.

FII has sold more than 10000 crs in equity and more than 26000 crs in debt market so far in the month of June. Indian market never saw this kind of money out flow in recent years. It was market under – performance which has triggered this selling. Market has tested lots of patience and Indian market is in a range from more than a year. When all global indices were hitting all time high, India was struggling.   

Nifty has saved 5545 levels yesterday and almost bounced by 96 points before last hour sell off. On higher side it needs to stand above 5690-5700 levels which are a tough resistance to cross now. It has washed more than 60 points in last hour of trades which was not small. Definitely, it was FII selling in last hour and banks were on their target. India VIX has a high at 22.11 and still closed above 21 levels. It is yearly high for VIX. (Stock exchange should give VIX for trade). Undoubtedly, it is a critical levels and showing panic in the market.

Technical charts are still suggesting for some recovery which may be driven by short covering. It is only banking stocks which have refused to recover. We have long black candle + Doji which might be the first hint for short term trend reversal. Technical support for Nifty is at 5570 and 5545 or in the same range.

Recovery is still not confirmed. Nifty needs to stand above 5640 and then it needs to cross 5690 too. It is very likely outcome before expiry tomorrow.

Strategy for Nifty June future – SGX NIFTY is giving signals for little better opening with 20 points gain. Thanks to some recovery in US market. Expect trading support at 5570 to 5545 levels. On higher side expect some sustainability in trade if it manages to stand above 5642 only. If world does not get any further shock then we can expect the cross of critical 5683 today. It’s not a bet, it is only a hope.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

I was expecting 1600 in recovery and we saw a high at 1594 yesterday. Note down very strongly that US market will be the best part of the world in term of price performance. It is still expected to see a high day today with a real attempt towards 1600. Next move will depend on failure or success of 1600 marks. Cross above 1600 brings bulls momentum back.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar