13 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Now we will enter in the support zone. Expect weak opening and support at 5710 – 5702 levels. This is first and last hopes for recovery.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 June 2013: -

On 12 June 2013, FII sold INR 1060.17 crs and DII sold INR 717.89 crs.

FII has sold five out of eight days of June month yet. Worse is that they sold in cash market for past three days in a row. If you look at recent few months’ money flow then you may realize that FII were buying heavy at peak and selling heavy near low.

Last night US market opened higher by 0.60% but closed lower by 1.00%. It slipped again on the fear of roll over of QE. Now, this market is creating dilemma. One day expecting ‘rollover’ and next day refusing. Japanese market is down by nearly 6% right now.

All news is not bad for India market with morning. Government of India may announce NRI bond to strengthen Indian rupee. Fitch has changed India’s outlook from ‘negative’ to ‘stable’. It has taken out the possibility of down grade.

Technical charts are suggesting that we are nearer for a bounce but bottom has not defined yet. It is looking to take support at 5710-5702 levels. Well, any further failure will create panic. Market has entered in over sold zone and any fall in this zone can be brutal. So, this is first hope and last hope.

Finance minister is going to address at 10 am today about currency weakness.

Strategy for Nifty June future – Right now SGX Nifty is down by 60 points and it is giving quote at 5712. It will not open that much weaker. Now support if we open near 5710 then we has higher chance for a bounce. At least, we cannot short at low after this kind of gap down. Break below 5710 will cause fall towards 5650 levels too. So far, Nifty has slipped by 500 points from its recent top. How much more is coming?

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

It has broken its mildly bullish pattern and closed on 50 DMA which is at 1608. It is opening the possibility of re-test of 1598 levels. This is the fall which is coming in over sold one. This is happening first time in past 6-7 months. There is a possibility of mild bounce but bounce may left out. Take a note that when it was rising, it has denied many corrections too.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar