30 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We got new high for 2012 and traveled 280 points in just seven days. Today is eighth day, we may see pause now. Try to keep biasing positive.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

It was two days of mammoth rise which pushed Nifty above 5815 levels. I was sensing this to happen when we have seen first recovery from 5550 itself. (I can hope that readers would not have betted on 5400 on that time). It seems that rise has shocked the bulls also with intensity of rise. Well, but we have seen so many surprised in past many months.

So, what can we bet next?

Firstly, we have seen a rise from 5300 to 5800 on the announcement of reform.

Then, we slipped from 5800 to 5550 on the fear of implementation of reform.

Now, on the hope of implementation (as parliament back in function), market moved from 5550 to 5825.

Compare above given facts. I am sure that even current rise of 280 points must be looking small too. True, it is. We have to see more massive rise ahead. So do not day 5800, it is better to say just 5800. I am strongly suggesting that does not matter what happen to the rest part of the world but we may not see any great dip.

Please give me a discount of 50-60 points of pullback if comes. Those are very logical to come any time. Today is Friday and eighth trading day from the recent bottom of 5548 levels. After two days of euphoric rise, we may see some breather. As I said yesterday, this is just the beginning of wave ‘1’. This wave will not finish unless we see at least one negative close. Just think that if wave ‘1’ is giving 280 points of minimum then what a full wave can do.

Technical charts are still advocating for historical December month of trades. If government able to implement even 50% of planned reform then also we will see a new all time sooner. I am trying to keep my biasing long. It is better to buy each and every dip. It is looking like significant correction will come either in the month of January or February next year.

In between, political drama will continue and the new topic is ‘reservation in promotion’. Who cares this political propaganda?

Conclusion for Nifty – I have mentioned that we might get rise in the zone of 5780 to 5815. I got the higher end. Today it 8^th day from 5548. We may have technical resistance at 5850 levels and then at 5880. I am expecting a pullback today but I am not too sure. I will use this profit booking to buy stocks and indices.

S&P 500 – I have already forecasted for consolidation and choppy moves for US market. Those zones of consolidation will continue in the zone of 1405 to 1424. I can sense a target of 1445 after the end of this consolidation.    

Happy weekend in advance,  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

29 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I kept on saying for buy and buy from past six trading sessions from support of 5550. Now crossed 5720 too. It is looking to hit 5800 or nearer too. Do not short this market.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I gave the support of 5550 well in advance. We kept on trading with positive bias from 5550 levels. It took just six days to come at 5730+ levels. Readers must have enjoyed a handsome profit. Technical charts are still suggesting for further advance. In the given charts you can see that MACD has emerges its buy signal in the last trading session. Till now things are looking safer in my views. I can sense some more rise even from current levels. Why cannot we hit 5785 to 5815?

One must remember that we have December month ahead which has a history of being good for bulls. It is giving me the sense that November month has formed its platform.

Note that we have one full eight waves Elliott cycle which has ended at 5548 and now we are in the new wave progression. There were little hope on Tuesday about parliament and we have seen shoot up of 90 points. Now, it is almost clear that government is now confident about numbers and they will go for discussion on ‘FDI in retail’ under rule 184. End of deadlock in parliament might be the trigger for the beginning of a rally.  

By Monday-Tuesday only, we have forecasted that government will try to convince DMK and BSP to get their number and will go in discussion under 184. Things are almost shaping the same ways. SP might try to stay out of voting (as they were by mouth in opposing FDI in retails).  

What Elliott wave is saying? If I assume that 5548 is the beginning point of new up wave then this rally may have some bigger length. It is just the development of first up wave. Do you want to get the idea of length? Look at the chart and its previous wave. First wave begun from 4770 and end at 5180 roughly. So the total length was 2.618 times of waves ‘1’, which end at 5815 as top. So based on that we may see levels near or above 6050. Sounds so interesting? How can stock market move in simple ways? You can expect something to bring challenges in between. Only time can answer what can those be.

Conclusion for Nifty – I try to be in the long trades for most of the time in past six trading days from 5550. I am still having long positions. I will prefer to hold my long deals. Remember one correction is coming but those may have not have length great than 60 points. As I said above, we can expect nifty to hit 5785 to 5815. Even 5700 will act as good trading support. At the beginning of the week, I spotted target as 5700 to 5720 for the week but those are coming well in advance.    

S&P 500 – It has given another up towards the support of 1390 to 1385. This support was mentioned. Do not expect sharp rise everyday. Now rise will come with consolidation but this might be the good beginning for December months. Do not afraid in advance, US people will surely handle fiscal cliff.     

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

27 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has not crossed 5650 yet but I will not prefer shorting. Ample short positions will play its role before expiry. Nifty is not likely to break 5600.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Parliament has wasted its third day and market closed on dull note. There was no outcome of all party meeting which was conducted to the dead lock in parliament. It is important to note that even after all negative market has not given up to any significant levels. It is just trading flat. I am accepting that impossible is nothing but this market is not trading weak yet.

Second concerning factor is also domestic. Indian rupee is constantly trading with extreme weakness. Yesterday it hit 55.80 against USD.

Derivative data is suggesting that people took ample of short position on the anticipation of fall from 5650. I am constantly trying to keep my bias bullish. Cross of one resistance will the preparation to hit next levels. Some supporting news flows are coming from euro zone. Greece will get next bailout fund.

Technical charts are moving with higher high and higher low kind of pattern. As long as this pattern sustain we can hope only for rise. I still prefer to hold my long positions.

Technical indicators also not giving any signs of panic at the levels of 5630. One can focus on the above chart. RSI is still hinting that this rise has more steam. On higher side I am expect the range of 5680 to 5720. It may take few days but it is looking like to come.

Technical support will be at 5600 > 5583 and then only at 5548.  

Market may try to advance higher and try to ignore cues coming from Indian parliament. We can only hope that government will come out with some positive development. I am sensing that UPA will try to move forward with discussion under rule 184 and they may get a favour from DMK and BSP. When Dr. ManMohan Singh has already quoted that if he has to go then he will go by fighting then there is no point to stay away. He should come forward and accept the challenges. It was not unexpected move by opposition.

Conclusion for Nifty – I am already having long position which I am going to hold. I am making today’s trade a ‘make or break’. If market fails to break above 5650 then only I need to think. Till now, things are suggesting me to hold long. I can be on neutral side in the worse case but I will not short this market.

S&P 500 – I said that a dip is possible towards 1390 before further rise. We have seen a low at 1397 yesterday and then an intraday bounce. This was opportunity to buy. It is looking like S&P 500 will generate further steam. Now traders should prepare for 1445 + levels and keep your stop loss at 1385. I am repeating again that in the month of December we may see levels nearer to 1470.    

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

26 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has saved the support band of 5583 to 5600 and so expects more rise. Crossover of 5650 will give us levels of 5666 to 5680 levels. Prefer to buy dips.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Simple conclusion from past two days of trade is that market is almost trying to ignore the negative development coming from Indian parliament. I am still warning that deadlock in parliament is not at all good. Market is trying to ignore as long as it can.

I am still not thinking that I need to chance my studies. Technical charts are still suggesting for a rise above 5650 levels. I have tried to be on the buy mode in US market and we have seen some good rise on Friday night. This will give us some gap up. Asian market has also seen rise on the hope of Greece development.

Suppose, if we open above 5650 and maintain that gap up then we can expect a move towards 5700-5720. This target may not come in one day but looking to hit in few days. We have a bounce from 5548 and those trying to see some rest near to 5650 resistance mark. This is primarily because market is trying to trade in 100 points of range.  

Technical support will be at 5600 > 5583 and then only at 5548.  

Suppose if by somehow parliament starts functioning then only we will try to move parallel to the global market. It is looking very tough but government has to find some solution. After monsoon session they cannot afford to go in this way in the winter session too.

Conclusion for Nifty – I am still hoping for a rise towards 5650 levels. Cross over will give us levels of 5680 which final target can be 5720 levels. One must look at auto and banking stocks for trading opportunity. As long as 5584 holds then do not try to short this market from lower side. Rise may continue and it may have potential to surprise. We may not have parallel strength as global market as long as deadlock continues in parliament. There are two way for rise. First is to hit 5680-5700 in one go of rise. Secondly, it may try to rest at 5666. Only time can answer which way market will pick.

S&P 500 – A rise from 1390 to 1410 is looking good. We may expect 1445 as final target but it seems that we may have one price correction towards 1390 is also possible before that. I will prefer to buy that dip too.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

26 November to 30 November 2012: Wave Analysis: Nifty rebounded from a mild support of 5550. Expect the continuation towards 5680 to 5720 levels. Trading support is in the zone of 5600 to 5583.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

This week outlook: -

I have already quoted that fall will not be an easy one for last week. It hits inline with my expectation and I start building long trades from a bounce at 5550. I have updated those in my daily analysis. We got a bounce and till now it is missing 5650 yet. So what is coming next?

First of all, you must focus on given chart and concentrate on MACD behaviour. It is very close to give me a sell signal. Well, but those has not came yet. There is a strong words that you need to be ‘cautious’. Every single indicator cannot support direction every time but we cannot neglect MACD. I am feeling quite relax with RSI. I am sensing this week target as 5700 to 5720 with some toughness. This is just based on weekly chart. Take a note that weekly charts cannot give you the fluctuations on intraday daily charts.

There is another thing that one needs to note that this market has higher momentum in global market. Those can make impact on our market. This rally can have fuel by liquidity and momentum. I have another important factor to discuss. Keep an eye on Indian parliament. You may dislike but you cannot ignore. We can just hope something positive but this is just my hope nothing else. I am strongly criticizing both, ruling parties and opposition approach towards parliamentary session. Economy may suffer a lot. It does not matter why and how.

If you think that everything is positive then you must look at the equation of INR vs USD. It is running in the range of 55 to 55.50. No one really concerned about this except me and you. It is a challenging level but who can be serious. Our elite 545 are feeling happy even without discussing it.  

Conclusion Nifty – I will say in just one line. Just buy and hold every dip and keep stop loss at 5583. On higher side you can expect 5700 to 5720 as a top. I am hoping that Indian parliament will not give any negative surprises. It is just my hope. Remember even god also cannot predict about Indian politics.  

S&P 500 – So bounce came inline with my expectation and it moved higher above 1400. It is a pleasant development for me. Do expect more rise, at least by 3%. I am sensing for 1445 as target of an intermediate resistance. I am not betting on cross of 1475 but a level close to that is expected.

Be ready for wild derivative expiry (I wish it would not be like the last month). Have I criticized politicians a lot? May be yes but they deserve it. India cannot be the nation where you can afford even single day and we are wasting so many days. Day after day- day after day.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

23 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is expected to extend its gain for today also with previously mentioned target at 5650. Cross over is a need for further gain. Keep one eye on parliament too.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

It is very tough to deal in the market which has parliament related hopes. In past few weeks we have seen better performance by Indian indices compared to global indices. It was the hope of reforms steps that makes investors to go on bullish mode. Most of the investors prefer to hold his positions. All these development pushed us for range bound trading.

Parliament adjourned yesterday and market turned cautious and limits its gain. There is nothing which can suggest me that parliament can work today. It is a best technical platform for further rise but political deadlock is prime concern. I am expecting at least a flat opening. Here is a point to be cautious – most of the swing has length of 100 points from low. If you look at recent low and yesterday’s rise then we have almost moved by 94 points. This is giving a hint that 5650 will not easy to take out. So, are we going to get fall from higher levels? I cannot deny the situation but equally it is looking tougher to break even 5600 levels.

This is throwing just one possibility for me – prepare for a dull – range bound session. I need to add that technical charts and indicators are saying for rise only. Current rise may sustain for up coming few more days.

If government can act on even 50% of its planned bill then also market will try to move higher only. Today is Friday, we may expect tradition second half (specially post 2 pm) reversal. I have already said for yesterday that market might be nervous near 11 am and it was. Even for today timing for 11 am might bring nervousness.

In the above chart you can watch the pattern of moving averages. This kind of moving averages just require cross over to bet for further gain. Take a note that 50 days moving average is at 5645 which was almost tested yesterday.

Technical support will be at 5600 > 5583 and then only at 5548.  

Conclusion for Nifty – One can expect support at 5600 for trading. On higher side I am expecting a test of 5650 at least. Well, right now I am scared about winter session of parliament. If bad news has to come then it will come from New Delhi. Technical charts are still suggesting for recovery to run. One must watch banking and technology stocks for trading.  

S&P 500 – I am saying for recovery from 1345 and till now we got almost 3% from those levels. Expect recovery to continue at least till 1400-1405. Study remains same as of yesterday. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

22 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is in line with my expectation. It is looking to hit 5650 to 5680 levels. Do not short this market unless signs of weakness come.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I have already informed about this recovery. I can hope that you are at least not on short side. (If you are short then you need to wait for long time else burns your money). Derivative data is suggesting me that this market has ample of short position. Nifty November future is running with premium of just 5 points which was almost 15 points earlier. I need to repeat again that this market is still in the range and only band has shifted lower. At 5550, we were at the lows of the band. Now it may try to make a peak in the zone of 5650 to 5680. (I am strongly saying, it is just an expectation, there is no such signs, if comes then I will mention). This market may face selling from higher levels any day and anytime.

Can I say that everything is rosy now? Winter session of parliament will begin from today onwards. Market is expecting a lot from government. Our 545 gentleman may make noise on different – different topic again and chances are less that they will work. Government has long list of 25 bills to present on table. Market mood is likely to be determined by success of UPA government.

Technical support will be at 5600 > 5583 and then only at 5548.   

Conclusion for Nifty – I am already having long position. I will continue to hold. One can expect support at 5600 for trading. On higher side I am expecting a test of 5650 at least. Well, right now I am scared about winter session of parliament. If bad news has to come then it will come from New Delhi. Technical charts are still suggesting for recovery to run. One must watch banking and pharma stocks for trading.  

S&P 500 – I am saying for recovery from 1345 and till now we got almost 3% from those levels. Expect recovery to continue at least till 1400-1405. Study remains same as of yesterday.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

21 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has tested 5550 again and almost forming short term double bottom. Do not short near 5550, a bounce is on the card now. Expected range is 5630 to 5650.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I have already suggested for a possible recovery for Nifty yesterday only. We opening positive but slipped and then suddenly market rebounded in last 30 minutes of trades. We need one positive close to claim for a recovery. I am still suggesting noting a fact that we need minimum one positive close.

Can I say all turn rosy now? No, problem is coming from political front. Winter session of parliament will begin from tomorrow. There is a threat for ‘no confidence’ motion. I do not think that it can come but talks are still on. Problem for stock market is that can we expect another forwarding step towards reform? Challenges are so big for government of India. Pressure tactic by opposition and alliance partner will push government on back foot. Be ready for another hue and cry by 545 gentleman of India. Do you know that government has planned to table 25 bills in winter season?

Few such developments deserve mentioning. RBI refused finance ministry’s demand over SLR. SEBI instructed to close mini option contracts.

Traders need to observe the movement on RSI. It is stopping at current levels. One positive close can make it in favour of bulls. One must note that I am already saying that we will remains in 100 points of band. It can be 5500 to 5600 or 5550 to 5650 levels.

Conclusion for NIFTY India: - As long as 5550 support holds we can hope of rebound. This rebound may not have great life unless we get minimum of one positive close. Do not short at lows near 5550 unless it breaks decisively. Today, it might open with small gap but that will be important. Be ready to show your courage and patience as winter season for parliament will begin from tomorrow. One should avoid unnecessary adventure. I am still not denying for selling from higher levels as we have still a lower low pattern on daily chart.

S&P 500 – I was expecting recovery in US market recovery and it is coming. Note that as it has 1345 (which was mentioned on our articles well in advance). I am expecting a rise towards 1400-1405.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

20 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has tested 5550 and seen sign of resilience. Recovery will be very mild but do not short at lower levels. Maximum expected rebound till 5630-5650.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I was thinking yesterday about market reaction when US market were giving signs of recovery. Recovery came as expected in US market as well as European market. When those markets were slipping we refuse to move down. Now those are recovering, can we expect rise? Technical charts are saying that those cannot be easy deal.

Few days back I pressed panic button for US market but refused to do so for Indian market. We must note that we are still in a range although that band (High - low) is shifting lower. This kind of pattern gives rare opportunity to trade indices if you are not good enough in picking top and bottom.

Yesterday, we got one such low of 5549-5550 which can result some rebound of 50-60 points of nifty. Are we going to get that? May be yes, but I am ready to short this market at higher levels too. We already covered our short which was executed on Friday and took long yesterday at lower levels.

What brings the fall?

Mamata banegree’s threat for ‘no confidence’ motion may be the reason. There are few technical problems. Firstly, FDI in retail was ‘executive decision’(I have already raised question mark on this step, it can never be executive decision, it has mass effect decision), so does not require parliamentary approval. Although, it is not compulsory but it is not in practice. Secondly, to bring ‘no confidence’ motion party must have support from 50 or higher number of MPs. As long as Mamta fail to gather 50, there is no such possibility. Well, it is politics, so nothing is sure. Watch out for that. Lots of political drama ahead before winter session of parliament.

Conclusion for NIFTY India: - I am feeling that 5620-5630 will not act as stiff resistance. We may see some higher opening but those may not sustain through out the day. Sooner or later, we will see the levels of 5500 at least. Break below 5549 will be trigger for 5500.

S&P 500 – I was expecting recovery in US market recovery and it finally came.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

19 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has broken crucial support of 5580 in its own style. This may be the beginning for a move towards 5500. It looks like a day of out-performance has passed.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I have quoted on Friday,” Traders must keep en eye on VIX. I feel that it can able to issue us a lead signal before major fall or rise. I do not know when will it break but chances are that we will break on lower side.”

So finally we got this desired break on political concern and global concern. It took almost two months to move. I am not going to give lots of importance to the reasons of fall now. When technical break comes it can deny many things. Technical charts have certainly broken and it has proved that 5815 may not come very soon now. It is meaningless to talk abut 6000 which was hardly looking coming anytime. It was only the optimism which had forced bulls to bet for 6000.

Political concern before winter session of parliament has pushed all possible reform step back to behind curtain. SP declared its list of 55 candidates for next Loksabha election. It was the taken as a shock by market which has seen rapid unwinding. Can I bet on politics? Indian politics always run on complex and unpredictable way. As of now I can say that now we have to see the impact of ‘political uncertainty’ on every announcement coming as ‘reform’. It is going to be challenging time for Dr. ManMohan Singh.

Conclusion for NIFTY India: - I am feeling that 5630 will not act as stiff resistance. We may see some higher opening but those may not sustain through out the day. Even bulls will have to accept that now this market is on sell on rise. I need to repeat that after each steep fall we need to focus on follow up of selling. So, today’s close will define the target on lower side. In my views, test 5500 is very likely.

We need to note that VIX has already hinted for such fall. It was narrowing premium which has also acted a lead indicator of fall.

S&P 500 – I was expecting silence in the zone of 1345 to 1350. In fact, I was expecting some technical recovery. Now on Friday, it came but missing signs of strength. One must look at dilemma, that our market gave a sing of weakness when US market has given signs of silence to some recovery. I can only wish that we will have some smooth days.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

16 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty came near 5600 and it has support at 5580. No great technical sign for the break of this range. We seem to be on lower end of range.

(All subscription are opened now on auspicious occasion of Diwali, opened from 09 November 2012)

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

In the past trading session, Nifty opened lower and kept on hitting newer hourly low before recovering in final hour of trades. Money flow is also not looking great as of now. Now it is more than two months in the same range. If we assume that we are in the same trading range then we must be at the lower end. This is giving me support at 5600 to 5580. Absence of any great trigger is pushing us in a range bound activity. Market has good hope from up coming winter session of parliament. Finance minister gave a hint for recapitalization of PSU banks. I feel that he is trying to create environment for stock price friendly. Unfortunately, globe is not supporting right now.

I am not ready to press panic buzzer for Indian market. My conclusion is that we are still in a range. What is changing is the band of trading. We have seen the band shift but not the range. Some technical indicators are telling us to be cautious but not giving great sign of threat. Traders must keep en eye on VIX. I feel that it can able to issue us a lead signal before major fall or rise. I do not know when will it break but chances are that we will break on lower side.

Do note one more thing, you can talk about 6000 or 5400 depending on your bias but this market cannot move to those kinds of ranges easily. Do not trade assuming for the opening for desired movement any side. Prepare your strategy to handle this range bound movement only unless you fail at extreme point.

S&P 500 – It turn dead silent near 1350. You can expect support at 1345-1340 levels. It is slipping in a wild way. How come suddenly all data turn sluggish while all were indicating for recovery in economy just below US president Election. Just think. It was the key reason that I suggested for 1475 as yearly top. Be prepare to see another 5% fall on S&P 500 after one relief rise. Till now it has lost 8.47% from 1475.

Conclusion for NIFTY India: - Range bound activity will continue. We will have trading support in the zone of 5600 to 5580. You need to short at high and buy at lows. FII sold more than 1200 crores rupees in Index future and this is concerning. We have already seen the impact as premium turned narrow.

Regards,

15 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has broken its crucial edge of 5680 on Diwali day. It is the beginning of re test of 5580 levels. Trading resistance 5690-5700.

(All subscription are opened now on auspicious occasion of Diwali, opened from 09 November 2012)

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I was definitely expecting a mild recovery on Muhurat trading day but it turn critically negative. People prefer to buy gold but not equity.  This is a critical development as it is reflecting that retail participation is low. News flow turns suddenly negative. Most of the data flow is turning disappointing after US president election. It was expected. Just think why?

Dow Jones lost 1100 points from its recent peak and it is now sitting at 5 month’s low. It is still true that Asian market has not seen any great impact yet. I have already said about S&P 500 that 1475 would be a yearly top when it was at 1460+. It was too bold statement to make at that time. It is equally true that I was expecting impact on India’s premier Nifty too but that has not given anything great yet. We are almost in the same range of 5650 from past two months of trade.

Looking on critical development I am considering that close below 5680 will push us towards 5580 again. You can sense that base for this market is shifting lower. I am place immediate resistance at 5700 marks. I was not bullish from higher levels. Take a note that out performance has also a limit. You cannot expect great stretch on Nifty against US indices.

Now this is time to press panic button on European market too. Can I ask panic button India? Unfortunately, there is no such sign. We are in the range and we will be in the range. Only some band shift can be possible as shown in chart. Previously we were trading in the zone of 5630 to 5730. Now we may trade to 5580 to 5650. When I am saying those then definitely it is based on yesterday’s close. Things can be troubling for bears anytime.   

Inflation data for October month came at 7.45% against 7.81% of previous month. It was too good to believe. This is only positive that we can talk about.

S&P 500 – It has broken 1370 yesterday with ease and given a shock to me also. I have quoted earlier also that 1475 would be a yearly top. Now it is standing at 1355 levels. I have issued panic button for US market just from US president Election Day. It seems it will take a rest at 1290-1300 levels.

Conclusion for NIFTY India: - We closed below 5680 levels. I said, “Confident fall will hit only below 5680. If it sustain below 5680 then we can see the fall of 40-50 points and it may try to reach the levels of 5630. Before you get panic, I must say that there is no big threat for big fall.”

Containing my previous conclusion, I feel that band is shifting lower. It may try to test 5580 which is a short to medium term support. Will this market break those levels too? Yes, it may do that.

This market is about to digest levels to levels. Range bound activity will continue.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Diwali forecasting: for upcoming one year

From past two years I preferred to pick Hexaware for yearly investment. Even in the last Diwali it was at 65 and it hit a high at 140. That is history now and now I need to plot some views for up coming 12 months. Before you turn very optimistic and start plotting rosy picture I must tell you that up coming 12 months will not be same as mass is thinking. I am not only upgrading few stocks but I make few down grades too.

Unitech : Downgraded in Diwali 2010 @ 90/ it hit 18.

Suzlon : Downgraded in Diwali 2009 @ 99/ it hit 15.

KFA : Downgrade in Diwali 2010 @ 70/ it hit 5.

Challenges for next one year:-

1. Depreciating INR – If I need to remember past six months then I will remember mostly because of currency revaluation. This is most challenging environment. I can forecast for further weakness in INR and I am expecting it to hit 58. You can surely deny my levels but you cannot deny it as a factor.
2. IIP Data – From past 12 months, I was not relaxed with even single data. You can say that those are bottoming out but tell me if you have seen any single revival. I feel that those may see further dip. Government is not making any meaningful efforts. Please do not tell me about FDI. Have we got even single dollar yet? Think on this Diwali day. Can we say that Indian economy is on its way of slowing down?
3. Inflation – It was a concern for me from past 12 months and it is still giving me stress. Who know it better than RBI governor? I can confidently say that those will not top out in upcoming 3 months.
4. Bank rates – We kept on betting on rate cut. Market expected this too many times but it has not come. I am strongly hoping something in next 6 months. I must warn you that it can never be a single parameter for buy on equity. I am seriously very concerned about rising NPA in banking companies.

There are few positive developments too. One such is money flow which has really shocked me through out the year. Indian market has attracted huge – huge money flow. It was global in nature but in past one week it turns out as India specific story. FDI issue was taken as initiative towards reform by market men. Market is hoping more and more. The optimism is driving force for stock price. That is the prime reason that in spite of all odd stocks moved higher.

It is very clear that I will be cautious for coming few months. I am advising you to pick one such stock which has great fundamental (based on latest quarterly result) and available on good price.

Name is CIPLA

It is currently trading at 390. Use any dip, do not hesitate even to buy in fall.

MCDOWELL N (United Spirit) – I was heavily bullish on this stock in the year 2005 to 2007. Now, looking on fresh development, this stock is the one which investors need to avoid. I am not critically downgrading to sell but charts and fundamental are saying – NO BUY. Do not ask me why as I never able to explain many things in advance.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

12 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty came back to the mentioned support of 5680. Keep an eye on IP data and 2 G spectrum auction. Expecting weak opening.

(All subscription are opened now on auspicious occasion of Diwali, opened from 09 November 2012)

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I have already quoted the importance of 5680 yesterday and advised you to keep you biasing to negative once it start settling below 5730. It moved in that way. I like to repeat again. If Nifty able to sustain below 5680 then we can see the fall of 40-50 points and it may try to move towards 5630. Technical resistance will emerge at 5730 levels.

I need to say that we have seen surprising and shocking out performance in the last week of trade. We have IIP data today which is expected to be just below 3%. There is another big event. Market must be waiting to see the response on 2 G spectrum auction although it can affect only the sector.  

Technical charts are also reflecting the confusion of market over direction. MACD goes in flip flop trading signal. RSI is restless but showing for weakness only. This might be the prime reason that it has again failed at higher levels. I can conclude that all these momentum indicators are on mid point crisis. Although I am giving all importance at 5680 but I need to accept one more view which is alter in nature.

If one is bullish then there is one strong logic which is going in favour of them. It seems that market is eating all weak bulls of the market. At some point, if bears get tired then it will trigger the massive rise. It is just a logic and view not the technical confirmation.

S&P 500 – I have already said that 1475 would be yearly top. Correction was forecasted after Obama’s come back. We finally came to the support of 1370. If S&P 500 has to bounce then this is the last level to talk about. It is hinting me for some recovery. One cannot stand short on US market. Although, I am not advising even long. One must note that we got one positive close on Friday.  

Conclusion for NIFTY India: - We closed near 5680 levels. Confident fall will hit only below 5680. If it sustain below 5680 then we can see the fall of 40-50 points and it may try to reach the levels of 5630. Before you get panic, I must say that there is no big threat for big fall. This market is about to digest levels to levels. Range bound activity will continue.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

09 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has resistance in the zone of 5760 to 5780 levels. As long as 5680 sustain, we are bound to see pullback. Nifty is not falling like rest of the world.

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You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

You must be tired. I am also tired as our market remains in the same range from last one and half month. Dow Jones lost almost 800 points from its recent peak and closed on four month low. Even S&P 500 has seen a slip of almost 100 points from its recent high and lost 7%.  We have not seen any impact and Nifty is just down by 1.50% from its recent peak. This out performance has limited the trading opportunity on nifty to a big extent. Most of the time it is not moving beyond 20-30 points during trading hours.

So, if 300 points of dip failed to impact Nifty then what can make this market fall?

I must say that I cannot see any big reason for this kind of out performance. If this is happening the one has to be very cautious. Most of the time, this kind of out performance finishes weak hand of the market and it can trigger sharp movement on small triggers. This can be in favour of bulls. I am not saying that market will shoot up immediately. We are still in tough resistance zone.

Equally, if fall has to come then do not expect that market will issue you any advance notice. Yesterday, derivative data was a bit disturbing. One has to be very cautious and try to go on stock specific mode for trade else chances are high that you may loose money.

S&P 500 – When it was at 1460, I said that 1475 would remain yearly top. It was predicted for a fall. We got almost 100 points of fall. (Unfortunately, Indian market has done nothing). Can we expect more fall? Yes, S&P 500 may see more falls as it is already in panic mode and 1400 will remains very tough resistance for short term.

Conclusion: - We closed at 5738 but market is bound to see pullback as long as it is saving 5680 levels. Confident fall will hit only below 5680. On higher side 5780 will be a stiff resistance to deal. I need to add that if traded sustain below 5730 then biasing may favour bears.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar