26 November to 30 November 2012: Wave Analysis: Nifty rebounded from a mild support of 5550. Expect the continuation towards 5680 to 5720 levels. Trading support is in the zone of 5600 to 5583.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

This week outlook: -

I have already quoted that fall will not be an easy one for last week. It hits inline with my expectation and I start building long trades from a bounce at 5550. I have updated those in my daily analysis. We got a bounce and till now it is missing 5650 yet. So what is coming next?

First of all, you must focus on given chart and concentrate on MACD behaviour. It is very close to give me a sell signal. Well, but those has not came yet. There is a strong words that you need to be ‘cautious’. Every single indicator cannot support direction every time but we cannot neglect MACD. I am feeling quite relax with RSI. I am sensing this week target as 5700 to 5720 with some toughness. This is just based on weekly chart. Take a note that weekly charts cannot give you the fluctuations on intraday daily charts.

There is another thing that one needs to note that this market has higher momentum in global market. Those can make impact on our market. This rally can have fuel by liquidity and momentum. I have another important factor to discuss. Keep an eye on Indian parliament. You may dislike but you cannot ignore. We can just hope something positive but this is just my hope nothing else. I am strongly criticizing both, ruling parties and opposition approach towards parliamentary session. Economy may suffer a lot. It does not matter why and how.

If you think that everything is positive then you must look at the equation of INR vs USD. It is running in the range of 55 to 55.50. No one really concerned about this except me and you. It is a challenging level but who can be serious. Our elite 545 are feeling happy even without discussing it.  

Conclusion Nifty – I will say in just one line. Just buy and hold every dip and keep stop loss at 5583. On higher side you can expect 5700 to 5720 as a top. I am hoping that Indian parliament will not give any negative surprises. It is just my hope. Remember even god also cannot predict about Indian politics.  

S&P 500 – So bounce came inline with my expectation and it moved higher above 1400. It is a pleasant development for me. Do expect more rise, at least by 3%. I am sensing for 1445 as target of an intermediate resistance. I am not betting on cross of 1475 but a level close to that is expected.

Be ready for wild derivative expiry (I wish it would not be like the last month). Have I criticized politicians a lot? May be yes but they deserve it. India cannot be the nation where you can afford even single day and we are wasting so many days. Day after day- day after day.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar