19 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has broken crucial support of 5580 in its own style. This may be the beginning for a move towards 5500. It looks like a day of out-performance has passed.
You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
I have quoted on Friday,” Traders
must keep en eye on VIX. I feel that it can able to issue us a lead signal
before major fall or rise. I do not know when will it break but chances are
that we will break on lower side.”
So finally we got this desired break
on political concern and global concern. It took almost two months to move. I am
not going to give lots of importance to the reasons of fall now. When technical
break comes it can deny many things. Technical charts have certainly broken and
it has proved that 5815 may not come very soon now. It is meaningless to talk
abut 6000 which was hardly looking coming anytime. It was only the optimism which
had forced bulls to bet for 6000.
Political concern before winter
session of parliament has pushed all possible reform step back to behind
curtain. SP declared its list of 55 candidates for next Loksabha election. It was
the taken as a shock by market which has seen rapid unwinding. Can I bet on
politics? Indian politics always run on complex and unpredictable way. As of
now I can say that now we have to see the impact of ‘political uncertainty’ on every
announcement coming as ‘reform’. It is going to be challenging time for Dr.
ManMohan Singh.
Conclusion for NIFTY India
We need to note that VIX has already
hinted for such fall. It was narrowing premium which has also acted a lead
indicator of fall.
S&P 500 – I was expecting silence
in the zone of 1345 to 1350. In fact, I was expecting some technical recovery. Now
on Friday, it came but missing signs of strength. One must look at dilemma,
that our market gave a sing of weakness when US
Regards,
Praveen Kumar
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