16 November 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty came near 5600 and it has support at 5580. No great technical sign for the break of this range. We seem to be on lower end of range.

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You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

In the past trading session, Nifty opened lower and kept on hitting newer hourly low before recovering in final hour of trades. Money flow is also not looking great as of now. Now it is more than two months in the same range. If we assume that we are in the same trading range then we must be at the lower end. This is giving me support at 5600 to 5580. Absence of any great trigger is pushing us in a range bound activity. Market has good hope from up coming winter session of parliament. Finance minister gave a hint for recapitalization of PSU banks. I feel that he is trying to create environment for stock price friendly. Unfortunately, globe is not supporting right now.

I am not ready to press panic buzzer for Indian market. My conclusion is that we are still in a range. What is changing is the band of trading. We have seen the band shift but not the range. Some technical indicators are telling us to be cautious but not giving great sign of threat. Traders must keep en eye on VIX. I feel that it can able to issue us a lead signal before major fall or rise. I do not know when will it break but chances are that we will break on lower side.

Do note one more thing, you can talk about 6000 or 5400 depending on your bias but this market cannot move to those kinds of ranges easily. Do not trade assuming for the opening for desired movement any side. Prepare your strategy to handle this range bound movement only unless you fail at extreme point.

S&P 500 – It turn dead silent near 1350. You can expect support at 1345-1340 levels. It is slipping in a wild way. How come suddenly all data turn sluggish while all were indicating for recovery in economy just below US president Election. Just think. It was the key reason that I suggested for 1475 as yearly top. Be prepare to see another 5% fall on S&P 500 after one relief rise. Till now it has lost 8.47% from 1475.

Conclusion for NIFTY India: - Range bound activity will continue. We will have trading support in the zone of 5600 to 5580. You need to short at high and buy at lows. FII sold more than 1200 crores rupees in Index future and this is concerning. We have already seen the impact as premium turned narrow.

Regards,