Nifty:30 April intraday update

Above is the hourly chart as of Saturday's closing. It is giving us very clear reason for 'not to be on short side' once we cross 5227. (Already mentioned in the morning).

Till now we have high at 5257.95 (which was tested at 12 o'clock). This rise is nothing but very choppy to convert into trade but rise is rise. 

I may be wrong but somehow I feel that we should see levels of 5271 or 5299 before close. 

I need to say that do not always try to be on short side from every levels. I cannot deny the possibility of selling from higher side. If comes then only I will feel comfortable to trade.

(Pre market stock analysis were - Buy on Tatamotors (Up 1%), BUY on DIVISLAB (Up 3%), BUy on INFOSYS (Up 2.8%). Read at www.viecapital.com

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Nifty:Technical views for 30 April - Still choppy days

NIFTY – It’s another phase of choppy days and many traders might not be comfortable. There are two to take this market.

• Case 1 – Ranging market – You can say that Nifty is moving in a range with lower range in the zone of 5170 to 5135 and higher level remains on contraction. Then we are at the bottom of the range and hence we should not short.
• Case 2 – Trending market – Some believe that we are on the verge of breakdown after so many choppy wave formation and triangle breakdown. If one believes so then he would prefer to short.

Here we have problem where one view is saying ‘do not short’ while other is saying ‘short’ and ‘short’.

Well, I can say that with time reference both are right. Please note that you need to mention ‘time reference. These choppy moves will continue. One must wait till we get clear breakdown on the chart which will come. One should wait patiently till those times and ‘do not short’ near to the lower part of the band. Always use pull backs to short this market.

You can say that this pullback might be the opportunity to trade long. Yes, it can be but question is how you can handle so must quicker switches.

In the above chart, I have plotted a resistance line with top important tops at 5379 and 5342. Now the formation of 38% lines is running with downward angle from 5240 levels. This 30% resistance line can be a hint for another troubling choppy session before break.

If I assume 38.20% reactionary wave (of 5342.50 to 5155) then we will have resistance @ 5227. A crossover will give us 5248 and then (not sure) 5270 levels.

For today, I am not short and I am not willing to short at lower levels. Do read the analysis of 26 April 2012 to understand the rebound from 5155; it was little before the support of 5146. Read on this link - http://viecapital.blogspot.in/2012/04/nifty-keep-eye-on-resistance-5230.html

Depending on market condition we will release intraday updates too. Till that time, you can post your views also so that I can present better result for you.

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889



Weak govt biggest drag on India's growth: Moody's

Moody's Analytic has said owing to a weak government, the Indian economy may expand substantially below its potential of 7.5 per cent in 2012.

It has blamed lack of political will for the slow reform process and said the United Progressive Alliance government didn't have the numbers or the leaders to push through tough-minded reforms needed to drive the next wave of growth.

Manmohan Singh is an ageing technocrat who now appears tired of the rough and tumble of Indian politics. This leaves the national reform process in limbo," said Glenn Levine, senior economist, Moody's Analytics.

Risks were still tilted to the downside because of the dire political situation, though there were some reasons for optimism.

Economic growth is likely to hover at about six per cent through the first half this year and a steady upturn in activity may lift second-half growth to 6.5 per cent, said the analytics arm of the rating agency.

It said in midst of negative news, there were two events that offered hope for the economy, the Reserve Banks of India's decision to cut the repo rate by 50 basis points and prediction of average monsoon rains this year.

The agency said the single biggest factor weighing on the outlook was the Indian government.

The wave of government reforms and opening up sectors through the 1990s lifted gross domestic product growth to more than eight per cent before the global financial crisis.

However, since then, these have stopped.

The Congress-led UPA returned to power in 2009. This meant a strong mandate to accelerate the economic reforms begun in the alliance's first term.

However, weighed down by corruption and funding scandals, it has passed no notable Bills.

Levine said the government had lost all momentum. Progress on existing Bills covering pressing issues like land reform, fuel subsidies and labour rights are unlikely till the national elections in 2014.

SBIN - Why falling and Why more fall should come? Do not buy any single banking stocks.

I always say, do not believe me. Believe the charts if you want to be a successful trader. 

Few days back also, it was quoted for this kind of fall. Its just the matter of time that it has come today. Above is 30 minutes chart analysis. It has formed a triangle patter (which is coming in many stocks now a day due to narrow trading range). 

You can observe the two triangles in the above chart. First one has break point nearly at 2150 and then next at 2130. 

It has broken both and right now dealing at 2115. It even alarming. In five days stock has already crashed by Rs 160. Any further damage will give you 2000 and then may be 1960. 

It will not able to see easy cross above 2160 now onward. Short on rise is my call. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY – Choppy session with resistance @ 5230. Long can sustain only as long as 5170-5160 holds.

Today’s view –

Nifty has almost moved on lower breakdown but refusing to fall. It can never be a better idea to stick with a view that ‘I have to be right’. If fall is not coming then we have to accept that it is not coming. I am concluding for few more dull days.

Charts are suggesting that NIFTY will try to take support in the zone of 5170 to 5160. It will have stiff resistance at 5230 which may be under test today (I am not very sure).

            I may prefer to trade in any direction. Most probably, it is a trade on long side if yesterday’s low of 5179 sustain. It can just be the first half corrective up move. I still strongly believe that fall should come in the new May month series. That fall can be a brutal one but before than we have to bear the pain of choppy trades.

Call for today –

First half: - Long as long as 5179 sustain.

Second half – Fall from levels near to 5230 levels if Nifty fails to cross 5230 in first half.

RSI – It is suggesting that we may not see any dip cut in few days. There is a break point on RSI, which is at 42.28. Before NIFTY breaks on lower side we will see first break on RSI value so keep watching those closely.

(I am giving a very clear way to conclude levels. Do not believe me. Believe the study, I may also conclude wrong).

So over all, trade short only on decisive breakdown. Sooner of later that has to come. There is no running away.  

If needed I will release intraday update too.

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get  intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

NIFTY:26APRIL'12- Intraday update- Caution for last 30 min

Be cautious in the last 30 minutes of trades. Charts are suggesting for some better move. It might be up or down. As of now it seems that it is going to favour bear. It should not be dull last 30 min . 

Working resistance - 5216 and then 5237 on 10 min chart although 5230 is the most stiff figure which i gave in the morning.

Take care,

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY – Keep an eye on resistance @ 5230 (shifting lower from 5241)

Today’s view –

Nifty has bounced yesterday from 5160 and that is changing the resistance levels. Let us look how.

Nifty fall from 5342 to 5160 = 182 points

• First stiff resistance for trade will be = 38.20% from 5160 = 69.50 ~ 70 points.

From 5160 add 70 = 5230

So watch out @ 5230. Cross over will give 5151 (50% rise) and 5272 (61.80% rise).

I still intact on my views that lower support line have broken. We may see dip from higher levels.

• Have a look at above charting pattern. Its lower top and falling bottom. This kind of structure generally result fall. One view is suggesting that we may have parallel fall of previous ‘c’ wave.
• A fall from 5379 to 5183 to be retraced from 5342. which end up at 5146.   

(I am giving a very clear way to conclude levels. Do not believe me. Believe the study, I may also conclude wrong).

So over all, trade short only on decisive breakdown. Sooner of later that has to come. There is no running away.  

If needed I will release intraday update too.

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get  intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

NIFTY (25 April,12- intraday update) : failure of 5241 is inviting trouble

Intraday update:
Above is 10 minutes chart of NIFTY spot. Very cleary, it is missing major resistance of 5241. I am already highlighting the importance of 5241 from yesterday.

Turning shy from 5241 can turn as short signal any point. I am short from 5232 on NIFTY FUT with my small SL @ 5242. 

Fall can be up to 5150 or 5135.
Contracting triangle can do wonder.
Hope at least you are not in long,

Have a good day,
Praveen Kumar

NIFTY – Small bounce may come but that will also not able to save fall.

Today’s view –

It has broken 5183 yesterday and tested a low of 5180.35. At the very same time Sensex has saved 17008 levels. It might have happened due to Infosys. I still feel that near to expiry we will see volatility. Charts are strongly suggesting that even small intraday rebound (Magnitude up to 5241 or 5259 or 5278) may not able to save fall in coming days.

We have countable 11 wave formation till now on above daily charts. Can we expect the formation of more such ranging wave? Well, it may create as big as 13 waves. Let us see.

My conclusion remains same but I am making few adjustments for today. Supports must be in the zone of 5180 to 5170. Break below 5170 will add panic towards 5135.

Am I completely bearish?

No, as we are in the ranging market of 150 points so as long as this range sustain we cannot take direction. If that’s true then we might be at the lower end of range.

So over all, trade short only on decisive breakdown. Sooner of later that has to come. There is no running away.   

If needed I will release intraday update too.

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get  intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

NIFTY : 24 April (Intraday update)

5183 - Broken???

Yes, it has but not sustained. At this kind of levels, I always give some time. Have a look at 5 min intraday chart of NIFTY given above. 

Quoting from morning updates, 

"For today,once again keep an eye on 5183.There will be multiple trading supports in the down side.Like 5170 > 5150 > 5135& then 5080"

When we were @ resistance of 5339 (at that time it was 50 Dma), it has reacted like this with high at 5342. 

I am using dip to cover my short. 


Whats the trading resistance?
Take in a simple way - 38% (of 5342.50 to 5180.50)  rise from 5180.35 = 5241

As long as 5200-5180 kind of levels holds, it will be a ranging market.  I am sure that I have to book one loss when market will enter in a trend. 

As I am trading with small stoploss so my management will save me at that time. 

Do watch - Infosys, recovering from 2198 low. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY – How much fall if we see break below 5183?

It was little surprising for me too as Nifty came very near to my mentioned support of 5183.50. I feel that it was a panic unwinding of long trades in last 30 minutes of trades. I never give those to a big meaning. So I feel that market will make adjusted opening and will open little higher. Market was in panic mode in last few minutes of trade on the fear of concerning fall in US market. Well, those were not as bad as expected.

For today, once again keep an eye on 5183. There will be multiple trading supports in the down side. Like 5170 > 5150 > 5135 and then 5080.

On higher side 5241 will act as most stiff resistance for at least initial hours of trade. Cross over of 5241 may give us 5170 but those chances are very remote.

Let me explain why I am taking about fall towards 5000. There are many reasons on wave theory. I am explaining one by one.

• Consider rally from 4531 to 5630. Total 1099 points. 61.80% correction will give you 4951.
• Focus on wave ‘Y’ (Corrective up), 1.618% retrenchment will give you 4913
• Assume a top as 5342 from 5183. Corrective wave can end up with 2.618 times from 5342. So you will get 4925.

So many wave counts targets are falling in the zone of 5000 to 4900 zone. If we are not going to break those then also fall should be near to those.

(Technical Analysis key:  - We are currently at such levels where we must have two views, one should be bearish and one should be bullish. Depending on market conditions apply the most suitable one).

Success ratio in trading carrier is very small in India compared to developed nations. I can say that majority of traders do not believe in the study of technical analysis which is nothing but the study of a reaction by mass towards a particular event. Most of the traders do impulsive trading which is a must avoid step during intraday trades.

I am giving you little reason to believe ‘Technical Analysis’ through free publication for public reading. I always try to explain each of my important levels rather than forcing you to believe me. Here are some key levels which were predicted successfully before they achieved.

• Recent hitting 5343 – Already given stiff resistance of 5339 nearly two days in advance.
• Low of 20 April 2012 – Market slipped in freak trade panic and low hit 5245, Support was mentioned @ 5343 before opening hours.
• 16 April 2012 and 13 April 2012 – Predicted for rebound from nearer levels of 5193 and then 5183. figures were predicted at least a day before
• 03 April 2012 – Predicted “gains may not extend above 5386”. Nifty slipped from 5179.
• 29 March 2012 – In my pre market study, I advised my subscribers not too try short if it holds 5135. Nifty reverses from 5135.90.

All above levels were explained time to time. Do take a note that “Technical Analysis” may not be 100% correct but still it’s the only tool for ‘intraday traders’.

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get  intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

SBIN - Warning sign for almost all PSU banking stock

In my premarket stock analysis I quoted this about SBIN 

"Technicals are suggesting that we may see a dip of rs 40-50 now. We can trade on short side with stop loss above 2288 for the target of 2170 to 2150. Use some intraday rise to short this stpck. PSU banks may not have good days ahead."

Then in the morning impulse also it has failed to even cross 2280 levels. 

Trade below 2250-2240 - Giving no worry for short for a move towards 2200. 

If breaks and start spending time below 2200 then it can see more crash in coming days.

(I was already not believeing that repo rate can do wonder for banking stocks. I strongly suggest you to make some study on PSU bank's NPA figures. I may be wrong but I am surely very concerned.)

Technical charts are suggesting that current breakdown can push this stock lower towards 2050-2000 levels in coming days.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Algo trading- culprit for Friday's sell off.

what is algo (algorithmic) trading?

A trading system that utilizes very advanced mathematical models for making transaction decisions in the financial markets. The strict rules built into the model attempt to determine the optimal time for an order to be placed that will cause the least amount of impact on a stock's price. Large blocks of shares are usually purchased by dividing the large share block into smaller lots and allowing the complex algorithms to decide when the smaller blocks are to be purchased.

Who are using algo trading?

The use of algorithmic trading is most commonly used by large institutional investors due to the large amount of shares they purchase everyday. Complex algorithms allow these investors to obtain the best possible price without significantly affecting the stock's price and increasing purchasing costs.

How it impacted Indian market on Friday?

A broker, who watched the freak deal closely, said during those few moments a staggering three million Nifty positions were created which was about 33 per cent of an average open interest of one crore limits.

The Sensex fell to an intra-day low of 17,231 points and Nifty 50 of NSE fell steeply by over 100 points within seconds. Similar trade took place in Infosys futures, when within seconds the share fell by 19 per cent below Thursday's closing of Rs 1,950. The markets did recover after “the mistake” was detected, but investors suffered apparent loss of anything between Rs 25 and Rs 50 crore in those few seconds.

The National Stock Exchange has said it would probe the freak trade, but brokers, who do not want to speak openly against the state-run exchange, apprehend no truth will ever come out. A section of middle-level brokers have raised question over alleged unauthorised use of algorithmic trade format by few influential brokers

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get  intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

NIFTY : 23 April'12 - Triangle contraction and Wave theory explantion

You can study chart as of now.

[Click on image to view it clearly.]

Success ratio in trading carrier is very small in India compared to developed nations. I can say that majority of traders do not believe in the study of technical analysis which is nothing but the study of a reaction by mass towards a particular event. Most of the traders do impulsive trading which is a must avoid step during intraday trades.

I am giving you little reason to believe ‘Technical Analysis’ through free publication for public reading. I always try to explain each of my important levels rather than forcing you to believe me. Here are some key levels which were predicted successfully before they achieved.

• Recent hitting 5343 – Already given stiff resistance of 5339 nearly two days in advance.
• Low of 20 April 2012 – Market slipped in freak trade panic and low hit 5245, Support was mentioned @ 5343 before opening hours.
• 16 April 2012 and 13 April 2012 – Predicted for rebound from nearer levels of 5193 and then 5183. figures were predicted at least a day before
• 03 April 2012 – Predicted “gains may not extend above 5386”. Nifty slipped from 5179.
• 29 March 2012 – In my pre market study, I advised my subscribers not too try short if it holds 5135. Nifty reverses from 5135.90.

All above levels were explained time to time. Do take a note that “Technical Analysis” may not be 100% correct but still it’s the only tool for ‘intraday traders’.

Today’s view –

Nifty hit a high of 5136 before falling, which is 50 day’s moving average as of Friday’s trade. Fall came due to panic of freak trade but charts have changed. Technical charts are suggesting for stiff resistance at 5342 levels.

If weakness grows from current levels then we can expect fall up to 5243 levels first and then retest of levels near 5183.

One must focus on the above chart to see the development of contracting triangle. This breakout will make some great movement in expiry week. I am going to act short on rise again as long as 5342 sustain as resistance.

(Technical Analysis key:  - We are currently at such levels where we must have two views, one should be bearish and one should be bullish. Depending on market conditions apply the most suitable one).

Alter view suggests that if we spend time above 5350 then we will add more strength on forward momentum to see levels of 5400-5446 levels.

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get  intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

Reliance industies : How will it open on Monday 23 April 2012

I can redefine reliance now as this quote,

“RELIANCE – Earning more through CASH and less through GAS”.

Starting with buy back plans –

Total buy plan = 12 crs shares

Total buyback till now = 5261131 shares

% buyback til now = 4.38% with avg price @ 752

Source link for above data is  (http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/article3326969.ece )

Let us come on to the result

You have to accept that company’s core business is on definite slow down.

Positive – remarkablly better GRM at USD 7.60/bbl. (I must say that they have saved the possibility of big drop in stock price)

Worries are stil there. Why? Check this : -

• 21% drop in net profit for the fourth quarter of 2011-12 fiscal at Rs 4,236 crore.
• 150% grow of its other income to Rs 2,295 crore, accounting for over 42% of its profits before tax
• 39% drop in EBIT of oil and gas business at Rs 951 crore
• 32% drop in EBIT of refining and marketing business at Rs 1,696 crore
• 17% drop in EBIT of its petrochemicals business at Rs 2,174 crore

They have such a huge rise in other income that it’s concerning now. These are coming from its cash reserve of Rs 70,252 crore.

(Question – Do you know the name of any other company comparable to the size of Reliance and have such huge other income?)

(All above data are available on many web, I have just try to rearrange them to highlight the result performance).

Key question: - Where will it open on Monday?

Answer: -

A clear answer in a technician language – 718-715 (With low may be not below 700)

If Indian investors were sensible enough then drag may go below 700 then also technical support @ 680.

This question will have no meaning after 9:15 am tomorrow. Looking on result, I am expecting it to open on soft note but may not go for immediate slip below 700. This saving on 700 will be only and only because of buyback plan. (Who can guess about RIL management mood?)

Read my long term study on Reliance at given link. I am still confident on my study. I must say that I am bearish on this stock from 1100+ and I am right till now.

(http://viecapital.blogspot.in/2012/04/reliance-price-target-600-long-term.html )

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

 

RIL Q4 net down 4.6% at Rs 4236 cr; GRM surprises street

Mukesh Ambani Group's flagship company Reliance Industries 's net profit fell 4.6% QoQ to Rs 4,236 crore in the quarter ended March 31, 2012 from Rs 4,440 crore in the previous quarter.

Net sales increased marginally at Rs 85,182 crore from Rs 85,135 crore quarter-on-quarter.

However, the company surprised the street by reporting higher than expected gross refining margin (GRM) in the March quarter. GRM came in at USD 7.6 a barrel as against USD 6.8 a barrel in the previous quarter. The street was expecting it at flat.

Revenues from its petchem segment increased 8.25% to Rs 21,412 in Q4FY12 from Rs 19,781 crore in the previous quarter. Petchem EBIT margin declined at 10.2% versus 10.9% during the same period.

Refining revenue declined moderately at Rs 76,211 crore from Rs 76,738 crore quarter-on-quarter. Refining EBIT margin was unchanged at 2.2% during the same period.

Oil & gas division's revenues fell 7.91% to Rs 2,608 crore from Rs 2,832 crore during the same period.

RIL submitted revised development plan for D-26 to the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons.

Reliance has decided a final dividend at 85% to the face value of Rs 10 a share.

For the year ended March 31, 2012, the company posted gross refining margin at USD 8.6 a barrel as against USD 8.4 a barrel in last fiscal.

Oil & gas producer's net profit for the fiscal 2011-12 dropped to Rs 20,040 crore from Rs 20,286 in the earlier fiscal.

However, net sales during the same period jumped 33% to Rs 3,29,904 crore from Rs 2,48,170 crore.

 

RELIANCE (INTRADAY-20APR)- TECHNICAL SHAPE BEFORE FRSULT

Above is 15 minutes chart for Reliance. Chart itself can speak a lot things. It is indicating for few crucial support,
Intraday is 730.
Support starts breaking and closes near to 718 then it can result fall.
Before result - things looks 70-30 in favour of bears as of now

20 APRIL - NIFTY - ALL SET TO FALL AGAIN FROM TODAY OR MONDAY

Nifty has again tested the crucial 5342 levels. We must note that on Thursday and wednesday, we got high at 5342.

From this levels,
 "We need a bear gap down to see the confirmation of fall. "Bear gap down" is the gap down down which came after curtain rise and never filled up soon. Somehow it is not indicating that we will see any big dip today although we are on resistance."

I am not getting to trade long ahead of Reliance quarterly numbers. It looks that we those might not able to give cheer mode to the market.

Nifty spot- Cross over of 5342 can generate targets as 5359 and then 5379 levels. (... but chances are not for any great rise).

In the lower side, returning from 5342 can take attempt to move towards 5270.

Have a look at the 10 minutes intraday chart. I have taken the move from 5183.50 to 5342.50. Its 159 points of rise.

You must keep these three figures in your mind after breakout. These figures are given with reasoning.
5338 - 50 days moving average.
5359 - 38.20% of retrenchment from top.
5379 - Previous reversal point.

NIFTY FUTURE: As long as stay below 5365 it can be a short trade opportunity. Only cross over of 5365 will give impulsive rise towards 5400 to 5410. Chances are lesser for those opportunities.

Place Stop loss @ 5365 and short in range of 5230-5340.

Read http://www.viecapital.com/ for stocks views
Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get  intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,
Praveen Kumar

Major reforms unlikely before 2014 polls, says chief economic advisor Kaushik Basu

WASHINGTON: Major economic reforms in India would hit a roadblock and are unlikely to happen before the next parliamentary elections slated for 2014, chief economic adviser Kaushik Basu has said.

Addressing a meeting at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Wednesday, an eminent Washington-based thinktank, Basu said that relatively less important bills might go through Parliament.

After 2014, he said, "you would see a rush of important reforms" and after 2015 India would be one of the "fastest growing" economies of the world. The new government, if in a majority, would start with the reforms in a big way because there is a sense that it needs to pick up, Basu added.

At the same time, he said, there were some reforms that needed to go into fast gear and identified opening up of the retail sector as one key reform in waiting. India, he said, also needed to address the issue of massive subsidy leakage and that of poor infrastructure.

After the elections, the government of the day would take reforms on fast track and there would be a flurry of reforms, Basu said in his address.

Kaushik Basu said there is a slowdown in decision making. The unearthing of a series of corruption and scams, he argued, is having its own impact on the psyche of the bureaucracy, that is not willing to take risks.

 

Read complete on this link -

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Major-reforms-unlikely-before-2014-polls-says-chief-economic-advisor-Kaushik-Basu/articleshow/12738583.cms

19 April'12- resistance Nifty @ 5342/Nifty future @ 5365

I gave resistance at 5338-5339 but it has never able to sustain above those. Now charts are suggesting that we may not see cross over of 5342. If that happens then we can see a fall in today’s trade towards 5270 and then 5241. I have already explained about the importance of 5270 and 5241 few days back.

You must keep these three figures in your mind after breakout. These figures are given with reasoning.

5338 - 50 days moving average.

5359 - 38.20% of retrenchment from top.

5379 - Previous reversal point.

As of 18 April'12 closing at 5300, it has not changed a lot of daily chart but Market can never be save if it missed at 5342. It is giving me sense that market will be soft in today’s session. I may prefer to trade SHORT on rise.

NIFTY FUTURE: As long as stay below 5365 it can be a short trade opportunity. Only cross over of 5365 will give impulsive rise towards 5400 to 5410. Chances are lesser for those opportunities.

Place Stop loss @ 5365 and short in range of 5230-5340.

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get  intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Nifty 18 April'12- Breakout @ 5307. Targets - 5338 < 5359 < 5379

I have already suggested very stronly to wait for the break of 5185 to short from lower side. It has saved and we have seen bounce. Close above 5274-5278 is very encouraging. Have a look on the chart given above. There is a strong possibility of breakout of supply line. Levels for breakout will be 5307 to 5311.

I must add that if Nifty start sustaining above 5307-5311 then you can expect a rise towards 5338 and then 5359.

You must keep these three figures in your mind after breakout.

5338 - 50 days moving average.

5359 - 38.20% of retracement from top.

5379 - Previous reversal point.

As of 17 April'12 closing at 5290, I am finding strong support at 5270.

I am also concluding that my previous given support of 5185 has worked very well and turnout as end point of wave 'C', which is excatly at 5183.50.

Charts are so far so good but I am not a very firm believer of this kind of breakout. I am expecting for 1-2 days of bounce before fall. I have already initiated long on index with conservative targets.

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar