NIFTY – How much fall if we see break below 5183?

It was little surprising for me too as Nifty came very near to my mentioned support of 5183.50. I feel that it was a panic unwinding of long trades in last 30 minutes of trades. I never give those to a big meaning. So I feel that market will make adjusted opening and will open little higher. Market was in panic mode in last few minutes of trade on the fear of concerning fall in US market. Well, those were not as bad as expected.

For today, once again keep an eye on 5183. There will be multiple trading supports in the down side. Like 5170 > 5150 > 5135 and then 5080.

On higher side 5241 will act as most stiff resistance for at least initial hours of trade. Cross over of 5241 may give us 5170 but those chances are very remote.

Let me explain why I am taking about fall towards 5000. There are many reasons on wave theory. I am explaining one by one.

• Consider rally from 4531 to 5630. Total 1099 points. 61.80% correction will give you 4951.
• Focus on wave ‘Y’ (Corrective up), 1.618% retrenchment will give you 4913
• Assume a top as 5342 from 5183. Corrective wave can end up with 2.618 times from 5342. So you will get 4925.

So many wave counts targets are falling in the zone of 5000 to 4900 zone. If we are not going to break those then also fall should be near to those.

(Technical Analysis key:  - We are currently at such levels where we must have two views, one should be bearish and one should be bullish. Depending on market conditions apply the most suitable one).

Success ratio in trading carrier is very small in India compared to developed nations. I can say that majority of traders do not believe in the study of technical analysis which is nothing but the study of a reaction by mass towards a particular event. Most of the traders do impulsive trading which is a must avoid step during intraday trades.

I am giving you little reason to believe ‘Technical Analysis’ through free publication for public reading. I always try to explain each of my important levels rather than forcing you to believe me. Here are some key levels which were predicted successfully before they achieved.

• Recent hitting 5343 – Already given stiff resistance of 5339 nearly two days in advance.
• Low of 20 April 2012 – Market slipped in freak trade panic and low hit 5245, Support was mentioned @ 5343 before opening hours.
• 16 April 2012 and 13 April 2012 – Predicted for rebound from nearer levels of 5193 and then 5183. figures were predicted at least a day before
• 03 April 2012 – Predicted “gains may not extend above 5386”. Nifty slipped from 5179.
• 29 March 2012 – In my pre market study, I advised my subscribers not too try short if it holds 5135. Nifty reverses from 5135.90.

All above levels were explained time to time. Do take a note that “Technical Analysis” may not be 100% correct but still it’s the only tool for ‘intraday traders’.

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Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889