29 August 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Overall trend – bearish this week for technical and Elliott wave target 8400-8300!!!

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For 29 August 2016: -

On 26 August 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 341.35 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 266.43 Crs

I have already warned for a possible breakdown kind of situation which can be treated as mini correction. In on-going process we can expect market to head towards 8400-8300 levels. Nifty will face hurdle at 8600-8700 for medium term. This week trend is looking down. My preferred trade will be on short side on index for whole this week. Use pullback to short only. Do not buy.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open flat or little lower. We can expect sell off mode confirming below 8540 itself. On charting structure we can see a triangle break down as mentioned. Usually this kind of pattern favours bears. If follow up selling goes on then we can see a wild target on down side. Take a note that we do not any near term trigger for market to remains up.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty September future – I turn active on 8500 put. Well, I may opt to hold this for some time. Technically, Nifty will see stiff resistance at 8660 to 8680 levels. I must say that this kind of heavy premium value will not sustain for longer this month. I will just prefer any pullback to short Nifty September future at suitable levels. Take a note that suitable levels may not come immediately. Wait and watch before adding shorts.

BANK NIFTY – This index is convincing me that we may have very limited rise on higher side even after breakout situation it is not moving higher. Let us see how it trade today. My study and levels remains same.  Avoid present breakout now for long. It has definitely not displaying the kind of strength which I was expecting above 19200. Fine, as long as it is above 19200 I may not opt shorting. Well, but below 19200 I will definitely think to short this very seriously. Technically, 19600 may remain untested. We will see resistance emerging at each higher level. 

25 August 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Bullish formation Vs Bearish formation? Avoid trade on expiry day.

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For 25 August 2016: -

On 24 August 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 39.28 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 129.18 Crs

I normally do not trade expiry day and today it turn special to avoid. Nifty is forming narrowing wedge formation and this is definitely not a good situation. Market used to take unpredictable turn in all such moment. Market will face resistance at 8670-8700. In the lower side it will get support at 8600-8580. I strongly suggest avoiding such market.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open or flat note. After that it has higher chance of trading flat. If things favours then market can see a possible fall but this time I am giving possibility as 50-50 for bulls and bears each. If this market were looking for a fall then it should have given fall by yesterday only but it has closed on high point. This is showing that bulls are giving their best.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty September future – We will see market opening above 8700 but I will not prefer to trade today. It is equally true that in normal circumstances it is said to be bullish but wedge formation is also alarming. Technical charts are suggesting for support at 8650- 8640 levels but support is too far. On higher side 8750-8760 is still achievable.

BANK NIFTY – This index is convincing me that we may have very limited rise on higher side even after breakout situation it is not moving higher. Let us see how it trade today. My study and levels remains same.  Avoid present breakout now for long. It has definitely not displaying the kind of strength which I was expecting above 19200. Fine, as long as it is above 19200 I may not opt shorting. Well, but below 19200 I will definitely think to short this very seriously. Technically, 19600 may remain untested. We will see resistance emerging at each higher level.

24 August 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Avoid long near top. Nifty can see a possible breakdown anytime today or tomorrow.

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For 24 August 2016: -

On 23 August 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 0.19 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 451.87 Crs

Yesterday a bounce came from 8580 but this is still not convincing that we are left with strength. We have lower high and higher low on chart which is called wedge formation at top. This is usually a sign of possible reversal in trend. We have derivative expiry of this month contract tomorrow. Market may turn odd anytime. I believe that this may go in favour of bears this time. If short covering denies then a fall is very much possible either today or tomorrow with a possible price target of 8500 or below.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open near yesterday’s low, if not then near 8600. If this can break and sustain below 8580 then we can see a possible sell off today. I have already issued a strong warning of “CAUTION” yesterday for bulls which will continue for today also.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty September future – We will start near or below 8680.  We can see a possible support at 8640 levels. It is not easy to say if it can make or break. If it can sustain below 8640 then there may a big sign for shorting for a possible dip of 60-80 points very quickly. I do not say that one can chose option for trading long.

BANK NIFTY – Same levels and my study and levels remains same. Avoid present breakout now for long. It has definitely not displaying the kind of strength which I was expecting above 19200. Fine, as long as it is above 19200 I may not opt shorting. Well, but below 19200 I will definitely think to short this very seriously. Technically, 19600 may remain untested. We will see resistance emerging at each higher level. 

23 August 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once again, avoid trading long till expiry. Technical support ofr Nifty is at 8600.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 August 2016: -

On 22 August 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 300.50 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 52.50 Crs

This dip from higher levels makes some sense before derivative expiry but we not able to draw a decisive point for correction. Technical charts are suggesting for price correction from the resistance 8700 to 8750 levels. Well, but we cannot specify a time line for this correction. This market has to go under correction or it may turn choppy. I want market to break lower as it is not breaking higher but this is just my desire. I do not see a technical signal yet.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note. My word of caution is still stronger for bulls. This is not a time to trade long on higher side as we have seen multiple time slip form higher levels. In the lower side if it can break below 8600 then we can see a good price correction. Will it come? It is not impossible. Let us see.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty September future – We may have dull start but we may not get decisive start for the day. Technical resistance will emerge at 8710-8720. I am expecting a decisive price correction. I want to see the signal for start of correction. If this can happen then today may be the start day. Blow 8750, correction will begin.

BANK NIFTY – For Bank nifty my study remains same. Avoid present breakout now for long. It has definitely not displaying the kind of strength which I was expecting above 19200. Fine, as long as it is above 19200 I may not opt shorting. Well, but below 19200 I will definitely think to short this very seriously. Technically, 19600 may remain untested. We will see resistance emerging at each higher level.