23 August 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once again, avoid trading long till expiry. Technical support ofr Nifty is at 8600.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 23 August 2016: -
On 22 August 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 300.50 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 52.50 Crs
This dip from higher levels makes some sense before derivative expiry
but we not able to draw a decisive point for correction. Technical charts are
suggesting for price correction from the resistance 8700 to 8750 levels. Well,
but we cannot specify a time line for this correction. This market has to go
under correction or it may turn choppy. I want market to break lower as it is
not breaking higher but this is just my desire. I do not see a technical signal
yet.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat
note. My word of caution is still stronger for bulls. This is not a time to
trade long on higher side as we have seen multiple time slip form higher
levels. In the lower side if it can break below 8600 then we can see a good
price correction. Will it come? It is not impossible. Let us see.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty September
future – We may have dull start but we may not get decisive start for the
day. Technical resistance will emerge at 8710-8720. I am expecting a decisive
price correction. I want to see the signal for start of correction. If this can
happen then today may be the start day. Blow 8750, correction will begin.
BANK NIFTY – For Bank nifty
my study remains same. Avoid present breakout now for long. It has definitely
not displaying the kind of strength which I was expecting above 19200. Fine, as
long as it is above 19200 I may not opt shorting. Well, but below 19200 I will
definitely think to short this very seriously. Technically, 19600 may remain
untested. We will see resistance emerging at each higher level.
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