24 August 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Avoid long near top. Nifty can see a possible breakdown anytime today or tomorrow.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 August 2016: -

On 23 August 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 0.19 Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 451.87 Crs

Yesterday a bounce came from 8580 but this is still not convincing that we are left with strength. We have lower high and higher low on chart which is called wedge formation at top. This is usually a sign of possible reversal in trend. We have derivative expiry of this month contract tomorrow. Market may turn odd anytime. I believe that this may go in favour of bears this time. If short covering denies then a fall is very much possible either today or tomorrow with a possible price target of 8500 or below.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open near yesterday’s low, if not then near 8600. If this can break and sustain below 8580 then we can see a possible sell off today. I have already issued a strong warning of “CAUTION” yesterday for bulls which will continue for today also.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty September future – We will start near or below 8680.  We can see a possible support at 8640 levels. It is not easy to say if it can make or break. If it can sustain below 8640 then there may a big sign for shorting for a possible dip of 60-80 points very quickly. I do not say that one can chose option for trading long.

BANK NIFTY – Same levels and my study and levels remains same. Avoid present breakout now for long. It has definitely not displaying the kind of strength which I was expecting above 19200. Fine, as long as it is above 19200 I may not opt shorting. Well, but below 19200 I will definitely think to short this very seriously. Technically, 19600 may remain untested. We will see resistance emerging at each higher level.