31 July 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: No great sign of revival is coming. Nifty may extend fall towards 5680 levels if it sustain below 5730 levels. Even 5800 will act as resistance from now onwards.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 31 July 2013: -

On 30 July 2013, FII Bought INR 256.45 crs and DII Sold INR 415.00 crs

Government of India and RBI wants to handle the weakness of Indian rupee but they failed on that front too. Indian Rupee was touching 60.70 yesterday. Expect another panic flow today also. All those useless steps to handle rupee has given a jolt to stock price. I do not remember when economy was under this kind of panic last time.

One need to note that half of trading volume on Indian rupee is coming from overseas market where regulators cannot act. What they are betting? They are betting for India rupee to hit 65 against US dollar within a month. This seems to be worse than 1997 Asian financial crisis.

India will eagerly towards US market and hope that QE should more. Technical chart has turned to a fearful note and never looks like this before. Charts are suggesting that break below 5730 will give fall towards 5680 levels. Remember, it came at monthly low with just five days of fall. Now, even 5800 may act as stiff resistance.

Logically, recovery should come but there is no visible sign yet. Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is down by 20 points. It may open near 5780 levels. Any further trade may give us levels of 5740-5730 marks. It may see panic which will come from currency market. Will it recover now? May be it can but we need to see some technical formation to bet on those. So far, it is so bad. On higher side, it will face resistance at 5820 to 5850.  

S&P 500 – I can still say that US market is on dull note but not on the weak note. This pause near high is a signal as bulls set up. This market is not like India. Technical charts are still saying that it will break 1700 on higher side as it is still reviving above 1675 levels. All eyes are on fed minutes now. Expect further 2% rise on the cross of 1700 levels.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

30 July 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Today is decisive day. Whatever RBI wants to do, they will do it. Technical support is at 5800 to 5770. I am still expecting positive for market.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 July 2013: -

On 29 July 2013, FII Sold INR 231.77 crs and DII Sold INR 101.26 crs

I will address yesterday’s fall as a nervous sell off before RBI meeting. Bank Nifty slipped over 11% in July month so far and a nonstop falloff almost 23% from its recent short term top. These are the levels which can make panic to even long term investors.

Nifty has almost retraced 50% of its recent rise. An exact level is 5830 which should be acting as strong technical support. Well, it was trying to break 5830 marks in last minutes of trading yesterday. This is a concerning pattern. I still believe that it should bounce now.

I can still say that we are in the zone of strong moving average supports. All eyes are on RBI policy right now. Honestly, RBI should opt for rate cut if they are concerned even a little about growth. Yesterday’s economic survey report is suggesting me that there should not be any possibility of hike. Well, but no one can claim anything about RBI governor.

Whatever RBI has done to save rupee was also not impressive in term of outcome. Bank rates need to stable to down to save economic from a big disaster. Let us see. Worse case out – hike in CRR.

Upcoming two days are important for US market too as we have fed meeting on 30 July and 31 July 2013.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is up by 20 points. All eyes will be on RBI after opening. As long as it is saving 5860 levels you can expect bounce towards 5930 levels. Break below 5860 will give panic selling towards 5820-5800 levels. I am expecting positive outcome from RBI policy.

S&P 500 – It has to break 1700 on higher side by this week only. It can happen anytime now irrespective of fed meeting today and tomorrow. Technical charts are suggesting for strong trading support at 1675 levels. On higher side it will break 1700 levels to trap all short deals. Cross over of 1700 may generate the target of 1740 to 1750 levels.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

29 July 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is not good to see close below 5980 before RBI policy. Moving average support is in the zone of 5860-5850. To get strength, we need to see Nifty above 5930.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 July 2013: -

On 26 July 2013, FII Bought INR 278.04 crs and DII Sold INR 489.17 crs

Market is likely to be very nervous before RBI monetary policy. Nifty lost 0.40% on Friday (still positive for month by 0.80%) but bank Nifty lost 1.40% (negative by 10% for July month). It seems that banking stocks are going under re-rating. This is adjusting with their higher NPA.

Now, all eyes are on upcoming RBI monetary policy which is scheduled to come tomorrow. I can say that expectations are clearly divided. Some expects unchanged policy, some expects rate cut and some expects even rate hike. It is beyond the limit to guess about RBI governor’s mind.

No Asian market is looking better than EU or US indices. Even Japan is also on slipping mode. Technical charts are giving multiple trading supports on down side. 200 DMA is at 5852, 100 DMA is at 5862 and 50 DMA is at 5898 levels. Hence I am expecting good trading support in those ranges where we are already trading.

It is equally important to note that we are not getting some critical negative divergence which is first sign of caution ahead. To achieve any kind of strength, Nifty needs to stand above 5930 at least.  Extreme side of weakness can push it towards 5830-5800 levels too.

Upcoming two days are important for US market too as we have fed meeting on 30 July and 31 July 2013.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is up by 10 points. It is likely to open flat. As long as it is above 5900, it can try to save. Suppose, if it breaks 5900 levels then we can expect 5870-5850 levels on downside which may be quicker fall. I am expecting range bound trade.

S&P 500 – We saw another example of strength in US market. S&P 500 open lower and hit 1675 before rebounding. Finally it closed in green. Now, 1700 is practically a level to deal. It is very obvious that it might be invited many bears to short near 1688-1675 zone. I feel that crossover of 1700 will force everyone to cover their short. Daily chart has negative divergence on MACD so rise may be limited. So far, keep an eye on 1700 levels.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

26 July 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Likely pullback should be over and Nifty got the support at 5892 levels. First logical target and resistance is at 5970.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 July 2013: -

On 25 July 2013, FII Sold INR 442.94 crs and DII Sold INR 138.80 crs

FII has sold heavily in the June month. They were relatively muted for July month series. It is interesting to see if fresh money will flow now or not. We got May month correction but I never give importance to money flow since then.

Bank Nifty slipped by 8.60% so far in July month. Major part of the pain has done for now. Recent steps taken by RBI has caused last 4-5% fall. Apart from that, many banking stocks has given poor set of quarterly numbers which was expected.

Nifty has 38.20% retrenchment coming at 5892 (against the rise from 5566 to 6093). I am assuming that pullback has almost done now. Take a note that rising trend sustain as long as it respect 38% retrenchment. On higher side it is important to see it sustaining above 5970 levels first which is first logical resistance. I am expecting a small gap up today. India VIX is still suggesting that we are in rising trend.

In any case if it breaks 5890 then one can expect levels of 5830 to 5800. It should not happen. Market is waiting for the outcome of upcoming monetary policy review. Market has fear of rate hike. I hope that this fear will not be a reality.

Keep an eye on HUL,PNB and BoI result which will come today.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is up by 20 points. It has trading with heavy premium of 40 points. It may not remain same. On higher side it needs to sustain above 6000 marks to use the word stable.  It is likely to open near 5970. Let us see if it can cross 6000 or not? If it crosses 6000 then expect good rise by today itself.

S&P 500 – We have 80% chance that pullback is over with a bottom at 1680. It is very likely to give a strong cross above 1700 marks. It may happen today also. The length of this upcoming rise can be impressive again. First logical target above 1700 should be near 1730 levels. It is a fact that US market is the strongest market of the world. It is saving many part of the world from fall like India.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar