30 July 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Today is decisive day. Whatever RBI wants to do, they will do it. Technical support is at 5800 to 5770. I am still expecting positive for market.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 July 2013: -

On 29 July 2013, FII Sold INR 231.77 crs and DII Sold INR 101.26 crs

I will address yesterday’s fall as a nervous sell off before RBI meeting. Bank Nifty slipped over 11% in July month so far and a nonstop falloff almost 23% from its recent short term top. These are the levels which can make panic to even long term investors.

Nifty has almost retraced 50% of its recent rise. An exact level is 5830 which should be acting as strong technical support. Well, it was trying to break 5830 marks in last minutes of trading yesterday. This is a concerning pattern. I still believe that it should bounce now.

I can still say that we are in the zone of strong moving average supports. All eyes are on RBI policy right now. Honestly, RBI should opt for rate cut if they are concerned even a little about growth. Yesterday’s economic survey report is suggesting me that there should not be any possibility of hike. Well, but no one can claim anything about RBI governor.

Whatever RBI has done to save rupee was also not impressive in term of outcome. Bank rates need to stable to down to save economic from a big disaster. Let us see. Worse case out – hike in CRR.

Upcoming two days are important for US market too as we have fed meeting on 30 July and 31 July 2013.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is up by 20 points. All eyes will be on RBI after opening. As long as it is saving 5860 levels you can expect bounce towards 5930 levels. Break below 5860 will give panic selling towards 5820-5800 levels. I am expecting positive outcome from RBI policy.

S&P 500 – It has to break 1700 on higher side by this week only. It can happen anytime now irrespective of fed meeting today and tomorrow. Technical charts are suggesting for strong trading support at 1675 levels. On higher side it will break 1700 levels to trap all short deals. Cross over of 1700 may generate the target of 1740 to 1750 levels.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar