31 July 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: No great sign of revival is coming. Nifty may extend fall towards 5680 levels if it sustain below 5730 levels. Even 5800 will act as resistance from now onwards.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 31 July 2013: -

On 30 July 2013, FII Bought INR 256.45 crs and DII Sold INR 415.00 crs

Government of India and RBI wants to handle the weakness of Indian rupee but they failed on that front too. Indian Rupee was touching 60.70 yesterday. Expect another panic flow today also. All those useless steps to handle rupee has given a jolt to stock price. I do not remember when economy was under this kind of panic last time.

One need to note that half of trading volume on Indian rupee is coming from overseas market where regulators cannot act. What they are betting? They are betting for India rupee to hit 65 against US dollar within a month. This seems to be worse than 1997 Asian financial crisis.

India will eagerly towards US market and hope that QE should more. Technical chart has turned to a fearful note and never looks like this before. Charts are suggesting that break below 5730 will give fall towards 5680 levels. Remember, it came at monthly low with just five days of fall. Now, even 5800 may act as stiff resistance.

Logically, recovery should come but there is no visible sign yet. Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is down by 20 points. It may open near 5780 levels. Any further trade may give us levels of 5740-5730 marks. It may see panic which will come from currency market. Will it recover now? May be it can but we need to see some technical formation to bet on those. So far, it is so bad. On higher side, it will face resistance at 5820 to 5850.  

S&P 500 – I can still say that US market is on dull note but not on the weak note. This pause near high is a signal as bulls set up. This market is not like India. Technical charts are still saying that it will break 1700 on higher side as it is still reviving above 1675 levels. All eyes are on fed minutes now. Expect further 2% rise on the cross of 1700 levels.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar