04 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect weakness/nervousness before exit poll outcome today. NIFTY will show weakness below 6140 levels. Possibility of big dip is coming.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 04 December 2013: -

On 03 December 2013, FII Bought INR 516.59 crs and DII Sold INR 671.26 crs

VIX is now hitting 25 also. This is showing that market men are nervous at these higher levels. Market may not extend rise with nervousness. It does not matter how big buying is coming from FII. It is more important to note that yesterday’s close was not above 6213. It is keeping a scope for a formation of short term top at 6228 itself.

Indian market has shown some better than expected strength in past three trading session which was fully guided by the hope of outcome from five states election result. Market will like to hear good result from BJP. I am afraid that ground reality may not be as rosy as market wants. Exit poll result will come from today onwards. Market will take a cue from exit poll which will come after 5 pm today.

US market has moved lower last night and giving a sense of beginning of taper talk again. It does not matter what will come but something will surely come.

Technical charts are suggesting that we break below 6140 will again invite bears to play. I hope that market will test 6140 in today’s session in nervousness. Technical resistance was at 6240 and we almost got top at 6228.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future will open down by nearly 40 points as SGX NIFTY is reflecting. After a gap down we may see more weakness. Logically, if Nifty futures sustain below 6230 then we can expect levels of 6190-6180 also. I suggest selling on every rise. We will see opening in the zone of 6200 itself. so we can expect 6165-6160 as next target. Global market trend will dictate in second half of trades. Technical resistance will be at 6280 only. I am not denying the possibility of big dip today.

S&P 500 (USA) – So far, it is moving with towards 1790 with great conviction. It is giving me a sense that this dip will impress market participant. I still want a break below 1790 with some good confirmation. This fall continues from 1813 and break below 1790 will give 1754-1750 by December month itself. Will taper talk begin again?

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

03 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: CAD trigger may not able to impress as this kind of data cannot sustain. Technical resistance for NIFTY is at 6242-6250 levels. Below 6140, bears will come again!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 03 December 2013: -

On 02 December 2013, FII Bought INR 790.97 crs and DII Sold INR 618.20 crs

First of all, I like to draw your attention towards VIX. VIX is a fear gauge of market. If should go down with rising in index. In past two days it has moved from 20.25 to 23.36. Even yesterday it was up by more than 9%. This does not make sense. It is giving a hint that rise is not going to sustain.

I have demanded many times and demanding now also that exchange should allow us to trade on VIX. Based on VIX, I have avoided long trades.

I have quoted about resistance of 6213 but that has surpassed. Now, 6242-6250 will act as tougher resistance. Once it breaks below 6140-6130, bears will take charge again. Note that we need two closed above 6213 to conclude a breakout. I still say, unless we go above time high we cannot be very sure for rise. Do not look at FII data. They used to buy heavily near every top.

US market has probably entered in a phase of short covering at year end trades. Indian market may be nervous before election result of five states.  

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future will open down by nearly 40 points. After a gap down we may see more weakness. Logically, if Nifty futures sustain below 6230 then we can expect levels of 6190-6180 also. I suggest selling on every rise. Global market trend will dictate in second half of trades. Technical resistance will be at 6280 only.

S&P 500 (USA) – It almost hinting that US market is on the verge of some remarkable profit taking. After hitting my dot target at 1813, it came at 1800 now. Now the likely target is 1790. We will get some more confirmation once it breaks below 1790. We must note that we saw many big negative divergences on some crucial momentum indicators. It is also noticeable that US market has seen an 11 months of rally. I have already warned too many times to avoid long at higher levels. This is final call. No long in dip.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

02 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: There was no big surprise on GDP, it came at 4.80%. Technical resistance for NIFTY is at 6200 levels. Below 6140, bears will come again !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 02 December 2013: -

On 29 November 2013, FII Bought INR 745.16 crs and DII Sold INR 101.76 crs

It was most wild rise which came on Friday in first 15 minutes of trading. Market was very optimistic on GDP data. Well, after market hours it came in line with expectation at 4.80%. I cannot say that it was big positive surprise. In fact I can say that if GDP expectation was the reason then market has over reacted. Still, we need to accept that Indian market try to fill the underperformance of November month to some extent.

Even after strong rise in NIFTY, we have seen that India VIX was gaining over 3.20%. This should be down at least. These are factors affecting Nifty. It was banking stocks which moved higher on Friday.

Technical charts are definitely looking supportive as it has closed with strong gain and close even at day’s high.

I can still say that it has near meaningful resistance. If I have to pin point a resistance then I will pick 6213 as tougher figure. It has the level which was tested on 19^th November before sell off. In the down side we should expect support at 6140. Below 6140 there cannot be reason to hold any long. I have no long in the rise.

Do note that US market closed at day’s low on Friday after a long time. It is not weak yet on chat but surely on decisive resistance and on possible reversal point.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future will either flat or with some hang over rise of last trading session. Immediate resistance will be at 6243-6245. Crossover can give us levels like 6260-6285-6300. We need trades below 6190 to say for weakness. There is a possibility of test of 6130 if it sustain below 6130. I am not very positive on market.

S&P 500 (USA) – It hit 1813 on Friday’s short trading session and closed near day’s low after a dip from high. So, I am near to conclude that we are on almost near top on US indices. CBEO VIX starts moving higher from nearer levels of 12. This is a strong indication that something can go wrong on indices very soon. I still do not know how long it will take to break as it has extended from so long. Just one clarity that rise has almost done. One must note that volumes are also very low now a day.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

29 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Resistance is at 6113 and support at 6060 levels. One can expect some direction beyond this range. It is still looks weak from higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 November 2013: -

On 28 November 2013, FII Bought INR 102.91 crs and DII Bought INR 330.51 crs

Nifty hit a high at 6113 levels yesterday and closed at 6091 levels. So far, this is not giving any big threat. It still looks dull and this dull move cause in to weakness anytime. Technical support is at 6060-6030 levels. We must note that Indian market is going through under performance. I am very much concerned with this factor.

VIX is also running near 21 and always issuing threat to move higher. We should note that Indian market is making tops which are lower than previous. It is forming a right angle triangle on chart with base at 5970. At this kind of formation, even single thrust can do big damage.

Most of the time in recent past, I prefer to buy near 6000 but not this time. History suggests that third attempt usually fail in Indian market if it has to save support. Right now 50 DMA is at 6062 levels. Remember, it has extended from 5980 to 6062.

For today’s trading session also we will see trading support to emerge at 6060 and then 6030-6024 levels. Once it breaks 6030-6024 then we can expect rapid fall towards 5970. Any break below 5970 will push bulls in the back seat. On higher side even 6113 levels may not be safe. Only above 6113, it may try to impress bulls.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future will open on flat note. Threshold point support will be at 6115. If it breaks then we can expect fall towards 6080 levels. On higher side 6170 will act as stiff resistance and cross may result a move towards 6200. First day of expiry is going to be important to take cue for rest of the month.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is on another life time high but there is no great firework or euphoria kind situation. US market will be closed tonight. I still consider that 1813 may be under reach but this index has to stop somewhere. So far, it is going without gravity. Technical says that as long as it is above 1790, there will be no fear for bulls. December is traditionally a good month for market but this time story should be different. In my view, people will book some profit on year end trade.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar