04 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect weakness/nervousness before exit poll outcome today. NIFTY will show weakness below 6140 levels. Possibility of big dip is coming.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 04 December 2013: -

On 03 December 2013, FII Bought INR 516.59 crs and DII Sold INR 671.26 crs

VIX is now hitting 25 also. This is showing that market men are nervous at these higher levels. Market may not extend rise with nervousness. It does not matter how big buying is coming from FII. It is more important to note that yesterday’s close was not above 6213. It is keeping a scope for a formation of short term top at 6228 itself.

Indian market has shown some better than expected strength in past three trading session which was fully guided by the hope of outcome from five states election result. Market will like to hear good result from BJP. I am afraid that ground reality may not be as rosy as market wants. Exit poll result will come from today onwards. Market will take a cue from exit poll which will come after 5 pm today.

US market has moved lower last night and giving a sense of beginning of taper talk again. It does not matter what will come but something will surely come.

Technical charts are suggesting that we break below 6140 will again invite bears to play. I hope that market will test 6140 in today’s session in nervousness. Technical resistance was at 6240 and we almost got top at 6228.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future will open down by nearly 40 points as SGX NIFTY is reflecting. After a gap down we may see more weakness. Logically, if Nifty futures sustain below 6230 then we can expect levels of 6190-6180 also. I suggest selling on every rise. We will see opening in the zone of 6200 itself. so we can expect 6165-6160 as next target. Global market trend will dictate in second half of trades. Technical resistance will be at 6280 only. I am not denying the possibility of big dip today.

S&P 500 (USA) – So far, it is moving with towards 1790 with great conviction. It is giving me a sense that this dip will impress market participant. I still want a break below 1790 with some good confirmation. This fall continues from 1813 and break below 1790 will give 1754-1750 by December month itself. Will taper talk begin again?

Regards,

Praveen Kumar