03 December 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: CAD trigger may not able to impress as this kind of data cannot sustain. Technical resistance for NIFTY is at 6242-6250 levels. Below 6140, bears will come again!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.



For 03 December 2013: -
On 02 December 2013, FII Bought INR 790.97 crs and DII Sold INR 618.20 crs
First of all, I like to draw your attention towards VIX. VIX is a fear gauge of market. If should go down with rising in index. In past two days it has moved from 20.25 to 23.36. Even yesterday it was up by more than 9%. This does not make sense. It is giving a hint that rise is not going to sustain.
I have demanded many times and demanding now also that exchange should allow us to trade on VIX. Based on VIX, I have avoided long trades.
I have quoted about resistance of 6213 but that has surpassed. Now, 6242-6250 will act as tougher resistance. Once it breaks below 6140-6130, bears will take charge again. Note that we need two closed above 6213 to conclude a breakout. I still say, unless we go above time high we cannot be very sure for rise. Do not look at FII data. They used to buy heavily near every top.
US market has probably entered in a phase of short covering at year end trades. Indian market may be nervous before election result of five states.  
Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.
Strategy for Nifty December future – NIFTY future will open down by nearly 40 points. After a gap down we may see more weakness. Logically, if Nifty futures sustain below 6230 then we can expect levels of 6190-6180 also. I suggest selling on every rise. Global market trend will dictate in second half of trades. Technical resistance will be at 6280 only.
S&P 500 (USA) – It almost hinting that US market is on the verge of some remarkable profit taking. After hitting my dot target at 1813, it came at 1800 now. Now the likely target is 1790. We will get some more confirmation once it breaks below 1790. We must note that we saw many big negative divergences on some crucial momentum indicators. It is also noticeable that US market has seen an 11 months of rally. I have already warned too many times to avoid long at higher levels. This is final call. No long in dip.
Regards,

Praveen Kumar
I’m Praveen Kumar, a seasoned Technical Analyst and stock market trader with over 25 years of experience in the Indian equity and derivatives markets. My passion for numbers and patterns led me to a dual career as a Mathematics Teacher and market technician. I specialize in Technical Analysis, with deep expertise in Elliott Wave Theory, derivatives strategies, and market forecasting. Over the years, my analysis and market views have been featured on NDTV Profit as a financial guest, along with published articles on reputed financial web portals, sharing insights on Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, and stock market trends. As a trader and analyst, I focus on interpreting price action, chart patterns, wave counts, and technical indicators to deliver precise market levels and actionable trade ideas. My approach blends classical charting with modern analysis tools to help traders navigate market volatility. Through VieCapital, I aim to share daily market analysis, trading strategies, and educatio…
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