07 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If pause sustain longer than it has higher chance of converting in to weakness anytime sooner. It has stiff resistance at 6024 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 07 May 2013: -

On 06 May 2013, FII bought INR 897.46 crs and DII sold INR 540.83 crs.

Money flow by FII continues and there is no great threat yet in cash market segment. Now, we have no great trigger for market for coming few days. Global markets are also not turning weak and those are stable. Indian market came near a crucial resistance of 6000 – 6024 levels.  

I believe that this market is giving signs of tiredness as it has stretched too far. It deserves a price correction but I have a technical condition. Firstly, Nifty has to break 5930 levels to conclude anything great. India VIX has given a buy and it is already rising. It was higher even for yesterday.

Threshold points are in the following ways. If Nifty breaks 5930 then it will slide towards 5860-5850 levels. On higher side it will face resistance at 6000 or at 6024. We need to note that Japanese market is on its dream run along with USA market. It seems that developed markets are moving way higher than emerging markets. I am unable to find any short term trigger to bet for significant price correction. So far it is looking like world is ‘problem free’ now. It is like saying that we got the most ideal stock market. This kind of situation is itself ‘the most misguiding’ condition.

I still believe for “May month” sell off but I am unable to get any great sign yet. To some extent, it is giving me signs for the continuation of rise. If it has to come then those technical signal must come in just 2-3 days more.  

Strategy for Nifty May future – We have importance support at 5930. If it breaks then we can feel some comfort for price correction. As long as it is staying above 5930 it keep a room to come higher. It is not looking stronger to move further but it is equally not weak yet. It is more like a wait and watch situation. It is looking tired but ‘a break below 5930’ is required to conclude.

S&P 500 – No news is bad news for S&P 500. I remember that most bullish brokerage was giving the target if 1620 for the whole year. It gave all such ‘most bullish’ target in just 4 months. So, it seems that nothing is a bad news for USA. One after another it is breaking all resistances and staying higher. There is no single technical indicator which has not given divergence. Still, it is higher. It is giving higher time for waiting for correction while dream run for bulls. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

02 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Market will ready to watch its cues and expectations towards RBI policy. I am repeating, higher selling may start any moment now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 02 May 2013: -

On 30 April 2013, FII bought INR 876.93 crs and DII sold INR 347.17 crs.

In the last trading session fall was saved by massive rise in HUL stock price. We had a Holiday yesterday where US market fell sharply on data and fed concerns. We have entered in May month series. I have already discussed the previous history of May month. We have seen selling in every May month from past three years. It is scientific but stock market follows some sequences. Sometime it is called as ‘summer sell off’. In my view, upcoming price correction is not going to be normal. There may be some data development or policy development or anything but something will come to bring it down.

We got negative divergence from 5828 on hourly chart, which has acted again from higher levels in the last trading session and pulled it down. Technical charts are suggesting that a new down trend is about to start now. I have already quoted earlier also for 5869 as crucial levels which was just tested in the last trading session.  

Indian market is going to take cues from tomorrow’s RBI policy meet where we most positive are already factored out. For Nifty it has 5971 as logical resistance and it was just close in the last session but missed somehow and slipped. Technical charts will be again applied in same way. I have two broader ranges to apply right now. On higher side, it will get resistance at 5971 and in the lower side support will be at 5869. Trigger point for selling will be at 5844.

Strategy for Nifty May future – So far, market is looking to make a higher start. I would be more comfortable if Nifty future also start trading below 5867 marks. It may looks far but the way we got selling in USA, we can expect something big now. On higher side it will get resistance at 5980 levels. We have RBI policy tomorrow and hence today’s closing will be important. I will not surprise if market swing in fast 100 points range.

S&P 500 – I will again say as long as it sustain below 1598, I will expect a fall. I will not focus on reasons too much but we got some opening in the last trading session. Technical charts are suggesting this is will convert in to May month selling. If S&P 500 starts trading below 1572 then we will see a decisive dip. Well, do not expect a quicker bulls bounce easily once it breaks 1572. I cannot factor out the possibility of one day silence but it is ready for heading lower and significantly lower. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

30 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is ready for a higher start but we may not get support by follow up buying. Be cautious at higher levels as selling may start very soon.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 April 2013: -

On 29 April 2013, FII bought INR 620.38 crs and DII sold INR 366.20 crs.

I have already added for the importance of 5869 to 5860 range. It hit a low at 5868 and then bounced. This bounce came as a result reaction by HINDUNILVR. Well, whatever was the reason but finally closing was above 5900. I will stick with my logic of May month sell – off although we haven’t got any sign yet. My view is that we will get some kind of signs on technical charts very soon. Easy thing to conclude is that we can expect those beginning of May month selling once it breaks the support of 5869-5860 ranges.

We have seen renewed strength in US and Euro zone market in past few days which has extended their gain last night. US indices have almost coming near to their all-time high again. Now a day, expecting selling in USA is very tough words.

We got negative divergence from 5828 on hourly chart. Technical charts are suggesting that a new down trend is about to start now. I have already quoted earlier also for 5869 as crucial levels. Once it starts trading below 5869-5860 levels we will immediately see levels of 5829 to 5800. One should note that today is 13^th day form the bottom of 5477 levels. This rise almost remains uncorrected on daily chart.

Maximum it can try to save one more day before falling. Let us see how close we are from a bigger selling. Market must be focusing on upcoming monetary policy by RBI.

Strategy for Nifty May future – I cannot say that I got a perfect day to say for trend reversal. I am still feeling that Fibonacci series suggesting for price correction. So far, market is looking to make a higher start. After a positive start, it will fill the higher gap then I will look for some fall towards 5880 levels. Momentum might try to give 5980 levels but those are not so easy to feel and talk about. World need to change to bet anything bigger.  

S&P 500 – I said as long as it sustain below 1598, I will expect a fall but right now everything is missing to expect a correction. It has denied technical formation again and moved higher. Somehow I am feeling for May month selling but exact trading signal has yet to come. First requirement is that it needs to break 1583 support. In the best case of strength it can give 1610 on the crossover of 1598. It is just uni-directional from last five months of trades. Hope to get something tonight too!!!

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

29 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Reversal selling will start this week. First meaningful support will come at 5750-5700 levels. Global trend and RBI monetary policy will play major role. Who will disappoint first?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 April 2013: -

On 26 April 2013, FII bought INR 224.75 crs and DII sold INR 377.78 crs.

I was not able to present my studies for 26^th April due to some personal reasons. So, I am adding development starting from post expiry day. Perhaps it was wildest derivative expiry for recent multiple months. Nifty took a fast upwards swing due to short covering in last 30 minutes. It was big and huge.

I can conclude that expiry day top was a ‘pop up’ top. We should focus on some interesting “May month” consequences. We have seen May month dip in the year 2010, 2011 and 2012. The way this top is finishing in the April is itself an indication for no-better May month.

US market had formed a Doji pattern and we got a small dip on Friday’s trading. It is completely true that US market has no bad news as bad news. Something should come any time to stop that kind of gains or stability.

Technical charts are suggesting that a new down trend is about to start now. I believe that expiry day top 5924.60 will remains a crucial resistance and it may remain untested for recent days at least. I have already quoted earlier also for 5969 as crucial levels. Once it starts trading below 5869-5860 levels we will immediately see levels of 5829 to 5800. Sooner or later it has to start. I feel that even if market consolidates then also it will be fall.  I do not think that Nifty can try to cross 5910 even on higher side.

Strategy for Nifty May future – A pausing day was expected and it came on Friday with soft close. It should come to the technical levels of 5860 for today’s session. A further move below 5860 will confirm the reversal of trend. Nifty May future should see selling pressure for almost all trading session of this week. Crucial resistances will be at 5910 and at 5930. It is better to note that Bank Nifty may give a larger impact on trading movement. A clear trend will emerge after today’s trading sessions if it manage to close below 5860 levels.  

S&P 500 – I have written about May month sequences above. It is equally true for S&P 500 also, As long as S&P 500 is staying below 1598, it should just go down. It may take time as bulls are strongest in USA. For this week, S&P has support at 1540. If it breaks 1540 then we can expect a gradual down trend towards 1500. My studies all most remain same but it is just buying too much time before acting. It is still ‘a bulls favour a lot’ market but this can change with May month.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar