02 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Market will ready to watch its cues and expectations towards RBI policy. I am repeating, higher selling may start any moment now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 02 May 2013: -

On 30 April 2013, FII bought INR 876.93 crs and DII sold INR 347.17 crs.

In the last trading session fall was saved by massive rise in HUL stock price. We had a Holiday yesterday where US market fell sharply on data and fed concerns. We have entered in May month series. I have already discussed the previous history of May month. We have seen selling in every May month from past three years. It is scientific but stock market follows some sequences. Sometime it is called as ‘summer sell off’. In my view, upcoming price correction is not going to be normal. There may be some data development or policy development or anything but something will come to bring it down.

We got negative divergence from 5828 on hourly chart, which has acted again from higher levels in the last trading session and pulled it down. Technical charts are suggesting that a new down trend is about to start now. I have already quoted earlier also for 5869 as crucial levels which was just tested in the last trading session.  

Indian market is going to take cues from tomorrow’s RBI policy meet where we most positive are already factored out. For Nifty it has 5971 as logical resistance and it was just close in the last session but missed somehow and slipped. Technical charts will be again applied in same way. I have two broader ranges to apply right now. On higher side, it will get resistance at 5971 and in the lower side support will be at 5869. Trigger point for selling will be at 5844.

Strategy for Nifty May future – So far, market is looking to make a higher start. I would be more comfortable if Nifty future also start trading below 5867 marks. It may looks far but the way we got selling in USA, we can expect something big now. On higher side it will get resistance at 5980 levels. We have RBI policy tomorrow and hence today’s closing will be important. I will not surprise if market swing in fast 100 points range.

S&P 500 – I will again say as long as it sustain below 1598, I will expect a fall. I will not focus on reasons too much but we got some opening in the last trading session. Technical charts are suggesting this is will convert in to May month selling. If S&P 500 starts trading below 1572 then we will see a decisive dip. Well, do not expect a quicker bulls bounce easily once it breaks 1572. I cannot factor out the possibility of one day silence but it is ready for heading lower and significantly lower. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar