Friday, 29 May 2015
29 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty cannot be fresh short from near to 8260 support zone. If it breaks then 8200-8150 is expect levels.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 29 May 2015: -
On 28 May 2015, FII Sold INR – 792.54 crs and DII Bought INR
683.29 crs
Today is last trading day of the week and first day of new derivative
month. There is no great signal for buy and sell. These are moderate days where
market in under consolidation on long term chart. Nifty has shown respect to
8260 support levels on expiry day. It was definitely a dull expiry.
A simple conclusion is that 8260 is a crucial support. It has
chance for bounce as long as it holds above 8260. If it breaks 8260 then we may
see levels of 8200 to 8150. Nifty is here and there at 200 DMA which is definitely
not in favour of bulls.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a flat to
cautious start. I am expecting technical support at 8260. I am suggesting a buy
on capital goods stocks as those has revived better on expiry. On higher side we
may expect 8360 to 8380 as crucial resistance zone. I cannot deny the
possibility of another dull day.
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Strategy for Nifty June future – Nifty future may see start above
8300 which may be fairy a ok kind of start. Technical support is at 8275-8260
zone. Big question is shall we buy the dip on support? I may opt to give one
attempt for intraday on long side. So far, this is my only plan. If I have to consider
short then I will prefer to wait for break of threshold support.
S&P 500 (USA) – Once again it has a dead session
hence my studies remains same. I was not expecting this kind of bull’s attempt
but it was not so unexpected. It used to happen near top when bull’s refuse to
give up. What is not justifying is that bulls are not making serious attempt to
make a higher cross over. Near to top, I am advising strong precaution. 2135 is
still tough resistance to offer. I am least interested to trade long looking on
VIX.
Thursday, 28 May 2015
28 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Trade less due to derivative. 8260 is a key support.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 28 May 2015: -
On 27 May 2015, FII Sold INR – 934.98 crs and DII Bought INR
594.03 crs
We have derivative expiry of this month series today. Technical
support should be only at 8260 levels. As long as it holds above 8260 we can
hope for some recovery. I must say that I am expecting another dead session
today based on normal circumstances but expiry may add volatility.
Current dip is from near to 8500 and seen a low near 8277
levels, almost 3% downside move. Take a note that we have seen a dip below 200
DMA but final closing is much higher than the lowest point of the day.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a flat to
cautious start. First logical support will emerge at 8320 and then at 8260
which may be a form of panic dip if comes. On higher side we may have a sense
of 8400 but this may be tough day to claim.
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Strategy for Nifty June future – We booked our short at 8300 and
this turned to be another good trading decision. Take 8280 as key support which
may try to give support in any impulsive dip. On higher side 8420 is the
expected levels but that’s on short covering rise if comes. Trade less.
S&P 500 (USA) – I was not expecting this kind of
bull’s attempt but it was not so unexpected. It used to happen near top when
bull’s refuse to give up. What is not justifying is that bulls are not making
serious attempt to make a higher cross over. Near to top, I am advising strong
precaution. 2135 is still tough resistance to offer. I am least interested to trade
long looking on VIX.
Wednesday, 27 May 2015
27 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Another time, below 8320, it can hit 8260 and then straight to 8200-8150 !!!
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 27 May 2015: -
On 25 May 2015, FII Bought INR – 114.81 crs and DII Bought
INR 123.85 crs
This dip is in line with my expectation. Yesterday it has
challenged 200 DMA on down side. Basics of technical analysis are suggesting
that below 8320 (which is 200 DMA) we may see some impulsive dip which should
be because of nervous nature of investors. Equally, we are just one more
trading session away from derivative expiry of May month series.
If 8500 is a short term top or say a trading top then we have
chance of hitting 8200-8150 as next level of support which is giving a scope of
further 2% fall at least from here. Expiry can make things more odd and volatile.
Adding more spices, US indices seen a massive dip last night. We have STBT on Nifty
future.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a big negative
opening. If it fails to recover after initial dip then we may see panic sell
off too. Technical charts are suggesting that below 8320 we have chance to see
8200-8150 as next range of key supports. You may expect trading support at 8260
before that.
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to take good advantage join paid services.
Strategy for Nifty June future – We had short on May Future from
8380 which we booked @ 8345 and then make a switch to June series from 8370
which we hold. Now, it is close to make a break below 200 DMA support. One 200
DMA breaks then we may expect a panic sell off. Nifty June Future can slide
towards 8300 to 8260 as of now.
S&P 500 (USA) – This is the dip which I have talked
in recent few days. Hope traders have saved themselves from a bull’s trap. This
is a key level to watch. I feel that long has done for now and a decisive dip
is on its way. After all, this is a range bounce indecisive market from past
more than six months. Below 2115 to 2120, it has generated a sell signal. It may
have first target in the zone of 2095 to 2090 levels.
Tuesday, 26 May 2015
26 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Time to quote 200 DMA as support again. Now it is at 8320. Below 8320-another fall.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 26 May 2015: -
On 25 May 2015, FII Bought INR – 74.14 crs and DII Bought INR
0.17 crs
Yesterday’s dip was just a reaction at the resistance level
of 8500. Can this fall extend? Yes, it may. Take a note that 200 DMA is at 8320
levels which is in the striking distance from current levels. Hence, it is a
meaningful support for the day. We are in derivative expiry week.
It has another possible short term top near 8500 levels. I must
say that this is just a possibility so far. We need to wait for some more
technical confirmation. Two close below 8320 will push this market lower again.
Derivative expiry effect may cause some odd moves.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a silent to
negative opening. Before expiry it may turn volatile. On higher side 8400 and
8430 may be decisive intraday resistance. If banking stocks turn weaker then we
may see some big fall on index sooner.
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Strategy for Nifty May future – I take yesterday’s dip as signal
for opening the wide range in downside. If this is true then Nifty May Future
has every chance of hitting towards 8300 levels. On higher side 8420 to 8450
will be zone of resistance. One can expect good volatility but this may not be
easy to trade. Avoid if you do not like uncertainty.
S&P 500 (USA) – These are soft negative trades on
Wall Street. It is just choppy days to trade and it should be avoided at these
levels. Moving forward 2145 is a resistance although 2135 will also act as
tougher levels to cross. In the downside 2115 may act as support. There is no
strong trading signal to trade. I am waiting for short signal to emerge at
topping market. A long term top is just here and there.
Monday, 25 May 2015
25 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect another dull trading day with resistance at 8500 and support @ 8420!!!
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 25 May 2015: -
On 22 May 2015, FII Bought INR – 211.42 crs and DII Bought
INR 237.62 crs
We are in derivative expiry week now. There is nothing so
great to trade. We saw a dull trading last week. Nifty is experiencing resistance
but there is no any significant weakness yet near top. I have anticipation for
resistance to emerge in the zone of 8450 to 8500 levels. It has entered in the
same range now.
If this market does not fall then it will turn choppy in this
range which is just making trading dull. One should prepare for some decisive
move anytime now. If it picks to go higher then also it can be wild but chance
of going up is less. Equally, there is no sell signal.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a silent to
negative opening. Before expiry it may turn volatile but technical signals are
just justifying for dull moves only. Firstly, we have to wait for trading range
to get open. I hope that trading momentum for bulls will favour above 8500. It
is just my hope. Technical support is at 8420-8400.
80% chance is that we have tested a short term bottom on last
Thursday only.
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to take good advantage join paid services.
Strategy for Nifty May future – I do not see big trading range even
now. Technical resistance at 8490-8500 levels while support can emerge at
8420-8400 levels. One should trade less in this kind of choppy days. Let us see
what comes.
S&P 500 (USA) – Once again it is choppy on new life
time high and this is most irritating part. Trading range has also turned
smaller. From past more than six months US indices were hardly in lime light. This
kind of choppy behaviour at top may be the indication of long term top. I have
no trade of now. Trading support is at 2120-2115. I am interested in shorts but
not getting any kind of confirm signal. It’s matter of time. Will it really hit
2145 which we have projected in November 2014.
Friday, 22 May 2015
22 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is another topping formation with resistance at 8450. No buy as long as below 8450.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 22 May 2015: -
On 21 May 2015, FII Bought INR - crs and DII Bought INR 404.01 crs
I can conclude that 8450 is a true and working resistance
which is in line with our expectation. Technically, as long as it is staying
below 8450 we cannot trade long on indices. Although, we may see stock specific
rise this may not be the part of index.
If this market does not fall then it will turn choppy in this
range which is just making trading dull. One should prepare for some decisive
move on last trading day of the week but so far there is no such indication. If
it comes then I will take this as surprise only.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a silent to
negative opening. I do not have any forward trade as of now. Technical support
will come at 8380 and then at 8340 levels. On higher side 8450 is a decisive
resistance. Banking index may play some key role for the day. I must say that
volatility may come at peak if it comes.
80% chance is that we have tested a short term bottom on last
Thursday only.
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to take good advantage join paid services.
Strategy for Nifty May future – I still believe that nifty future
may not give comfortable trade on higher side. I am expecting volatility on
every top now. Technical resistance is at 8450 levels. Once it is above
8450-8460 we may see some quick 30-40 points of rise but then we may see fresh
resistance again. Below 8370 we may see easy dip.
S&P 500 (USA) – My study remains same near this
kind of high. VIX can bottom out in the range of 11. It is going in the same
way and turning soft on high. I repeat that there is no momentum in the market
to keep these higher levels. It is only the matter of time for a slip. Yesterday’s
high of 2134+ is not invincible but it is tough to maintain such levels. I wait
for a hard-core concrete sell signal. I expect dip and a big dip is very close
to come.
Thursday, 21 May 2015
21 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Indecisive mode to continue with resistance in the zone of 8450-8500 levels.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 21 May 2015: -
On 19 May 2015, FII Bought INR 48.06 crs and DII Bought INR
451.02 crs
We may be on some kind of resistance zone as quoted
yesterday. Nifty has a high at 8440 which in accordance with resistance at 8450
levels. I still believe that another trading top may come in the range of 8450
to 8500 levels. We may be in the phase of topping global market.
I cannot deny the possibility of some hangover rise before
fall. Fall is also not a guaranteed as it is just a speculation. What I mean to
say that Nifty is on decisive resistance zone. Once it goes above 8500 then we
may see a fresh wave for bulls. Keep this thing as note one can prepare short
term trading strategy.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a silent opening.
We may see resistance at 8450+. It will face resistance as long as it is below
8500 levels. In the down side support will emerge at 8380 which may act as bear
threshold too. Below 8380 we may see some sharp giving up on Nifty and in some
premier stocks too.
80% chance is that we have tested a short term bottom on last
Thursday only.
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to take good advantage join paid services.
Strategy for Nifty May future – I still believe that nifty future
may not give comfortable trade on higher side. I am expecting volatility on
every top now. Technical resistance is at 8450 levels. Once it is above 8450-8460
we may see some quick 30-40 points of rise but then we may see fresh resistance
again. Below 8400-8390 we may see easy dip.
S&P 500 (USA) – It is going in the same way and
turning soft on high. I repeat that there is no momentum in the market to keep
these higher levels. It is only the matter of time for a slip. Yesterday’s high
of 2134+ is not invincible but it is tough to maintain such levels. I wait for
a hard-core concrete sell signal. I dip and a big dip is very close to come.
Wednesday, 20 May 2015
20 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Indecisive moves may cause lesser trading opportunity. Key resistance is at 8450-8500 levels.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 20 May 2015: -
On 19 May 2015, FII Bought INR 48.06 crs and DII Bought INR
451.02 crs
Nifty has given a logical resistance before 8450 levels. This
is again raising a point that higher levels are not safe. I was also expecting
resistance at 8450 to 8500 levels for Nifty. This may be a part of volatility
near top after a bounce from 8000 levels.
We may expect such moves to continue for 2-3 trading sessions
from now. It is more important to note that development of resistance at 8450
may invite another round of sell off. Take a note that 8450-8500 levels are a
n-line resistance for H&S pattern.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a silent opening.
Opening quotes may face resistance at 8400 while trading resistance should
emerge in the zone of 8450 levels. In the down side we can expect support at
8330 levels. Note that 200 DMA is now at 8307 levels.
80% chance is that we have tested a short term bottom on last
Thursday only.
Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or
to take good advantage join paid services.
Strategy for Nifty May future – I still believe that nifty future
may not give comfortable trade on higher side. Following same it has turned
volatile yesterday in second half. One can still expect such odd moves with
massive volatility. We can expect resistance on higher side. Key resistance
will emerge at 8410 and then at 8440.
S&P 500 (USA) – I keep my study same. It came on
newer high again. I had a point to add anticipated short but I am still in wait
and watch mode. Basic of technical analysis suggests that one should not try to
short all-time high and I am following that only. I like to see how long can it
extend. It has given a target of 2145 last year November itself. It took almost
six months to come near to that. There is no momentum.
Tuesday, 19 May 2015
19 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: After hitting levels above 8350, we may expect volatile choppy moves now. Trade less in this period.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 19 May 2015: -
On 15 May 2015, FII Sold INR 38.31 crs and DII Bought INR
563.60 crs
First big question is that can it hit 8450 to 8500 levels. My
first anticipation is yes it can but it will not move in easy way anymore. We should
see a trading choppiness for coming few days before a conclusive move. As of
now, I can say that we may see some kind of trading top to emerge based on
minute wave on Elliott wave chart.
I still say that no matter what short term charts are saying
but long term chart may have a reversal mode. Whatever rise came in between is
that part of corrective up.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a silent to
negative opening. If it opens 30-40 points down and maintains this gap down
then it may be first sign of weakness at top. There should not be hurry in
concluding that. Technical key support is at 8340 and then at 8300 itself.
80% chance is that we have tested a short term bottom on last
Thursday only.
Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or
to take good advantage join paid services.
Strategy for Nifty May future – I have no plan to buy the rise
anymore as resistance can emerge anytime now. 8400 to 8420 may be the key
resistance. In down side 8310-8285 may be zone for support. I may be in better
position to suggest during trading hours only. so far, it looks like for a dip
for the day.
S&P 500 (USA) – It came on newer high again. I had
a point to add anticipated short but I am still in wait and watch mode. Basic of
technical analysis suggests that one should not try to short all-time high and I
am following that only. I like to see how long can it extend. It has given a target
of 2145 last year November itself. It took almost six months to come near to
that. There is no momentum.
Monday, 18 May 2015
18 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Higher targets of 8350 stilt intact. Plan to buy dip for intraday.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 18 May 2015: -
On 15 May 2015, FII Sold INR 73.76 crs and DII Bought INR
302.57 crs
I still hope for further recovery in Indian market. First key
resistance is at 8300 and then it will face resistance at 8350. My view is that
it may test bother resistances. Well, this week may not be a simple one. We will
see lot of tug-of-war activities now. We may see some good days and some bad
days too.
Nifty will get support at 8100 but only one thing can govern
this week and it is volatility. I advise strong caution if top comes near 8300
or near 8350. No higher levels can be safe for this week.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a silent opening.
I am expecting a dull first half but momentum can come by second half. We will
see strong trading support emerging at 8330 and 8300 levels. If I have to buy
then I will plan to buy form dip only.
80% chance is that we have tested a short term bottom on last
Thursday only.
Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or
to take good advantage join paid services.
Strategy for Nifty May future – As of now I have no trade on Nifty
future. For today’s session, I have planned to buy if some sudden impulsive dip
comes. If dip comes in the range of 8220 then I may think to give a chance for
buy. I will short Nifty this week but may not today.
S&P 500 (USA) – US indices again coming very close
to make a newer all time high but the energy is missing. This energy is missing
from past more than six months. I will try a soft shorting near all-time high
on the anticipation of fall. Well, it still depends on reaction in the zone of
2120 to 2125. I still feel that only short term chart is favouring bulls and a
brutal top may come at this kind of high.
Friday, 15 May 2015
Net Gain = Profit 775 points – Loss 148 points = 627 Points of optimum profit
May month Nifty Future deals:
04 May 2015: Bought @ 8300/ Profit @ 8320(Intraday) Gain = 20
Points
06 May 2015: Bought@ 8300/ Loss @ 8280 (Intraday) Loss = 20
Points
06 May 2015: Bought@ 8145/ Loss @ 8128 (Intraday) Loss = 17
Points
07 May 2015: Bought@ 8070/ Profit @ 8140 (Intraday) Gain = 70
Points
07 May 2015: Bought @ 8040/ Profit @ 8270 (Positional) Gain =
230 Points
11 May 2015: Bought @ 8320/ Profit @ 8350 (Intraday) Gain = 30
Points
12 May 2015: Bought @ 8220/ Loss @ 8209 (Intraday) Loss = 11
Points
12 May 2015: Bought @ 8160/ Profit @ 8240 (Positional) Gain =
80 Points
12 May 2015: Bought @ 8120/ Profit @ 8260 (Positional) Gain =
140 Points
13 May 2015: Bought @ 8130/ Loss @ 8110 (Intraday) Loss = 20
Points
13 May 2015: Bought @ 8140/ Profit @ 8230 (Intraday) Gain = 90
Points
13 May 2015: Bought @ 8250/ Loss @ 8170 (Positional) Loss = 80
Points
14 May 2015: Bought @ 8165/Profit @ 8200 (Intraday) Gain = 35
Points
14 May 2015: Bought @ 8180/Profit @ 8240 (Intraday) Gain = 60
Points
15 May 2015: Bought @ 8240/Profit @ 8270 (Intraday) Gain = 20
Points
15 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Yesterday’s dullness at top is critical. It needs to sustain above 8260 to say for 8350. I am limiting trades now.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 15 May 2015: -
On 14 May 2015, FII Sold INR 73.76 crs and DII Bought INR
302.57 crs
Now my hopes are not as strong as earlier. Every recovery got
sold but every dip was also bought. What to conclude? This kind of pattern is
known as a mess. If I have to favour then I will favour bulls. Equally, I must
say that I neither have long nor short as of now. I will take trade as intraday
deal only.
Nifty must respect 8100 levels as key support before 8000
levels. I believe that it was just one day sell off to wash weak bulls. If
that’s true, then also real challenge will emerge at 8350 levels.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a silent opening.
I have fewer cues for first half of trades. Most of the time it was wild for
first hour in this week trades. Technically it may have good support @ 8180 and
8140. I suggest trading less for today. If banks favour bulls then only it can
be different day. Else a dead trading is ahead.
80% chance is that we have tested a short term bottom on last
Thursday only.
Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or
to take good advantage join paid services.
Strategy for Nifty May future – I trades long yesterday which I booked
in very last minutes of trade but I have no long forward trades. Technically,
one can expect two supports; one is at 8200 and next is at 8140. Both are wild
and gaps are big between supports. This may add volatility. I may prefer to
trade long near support.
S&P 500 (USA) – I favour bulls for short term and
it again went up. It is confirming my views. For today’s trading session it
will face decisive resistance at 2120 to 2125 levels. Well, now I can say that if
market reacts at higher point then it can be a level for short with stop loss
just at 2125 levels. It is still a question if it can react at top or not. My long
term view remains intact that US market is under a long term top formation.
Thursday, 14 May 2015
14 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Litmus test will emerge at 8350 levels. We can expect rise with support at 8200 to 8180 levels.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 14 May 2015: -
On 13 May 2015, FII Sold INR 71.20 crs and DII Bought INR
254.00 crs
At one time, yesterday’s fall has shocked me. We took long at
lows as I was already anticipating support at 8100 levels on Nifty. Them we saw
a nice recovery on blue-chip indices. I have already discussed about the
possibility of inverse H&S pattern. Key resistance will emerge at 8350
levels which is still 120 points away. I still believe for a move towards 8350.
Will it breaks higher? I have no clear as of now but rise towards 8350 must be
expected.
Nifty must respect 8100 levels as key support before 8000
levels. I believe that it was just one day sell off to wash weak bulls. If
that’s true, then also real challenge will emerge at 8350 levels.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a silent opening
followed by smooth rise towards 8350. If inverse H&S has to form then
frequent attempt will come towards 8350. Technical support will be at 8170 and
8100 levels but this support will be for volatile condition of market. If market
turns less volatile, then 8200 may also act as support.
80% chance is that we have tested a short term bottom on last
Thursday only.
Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or
to take good advantage join paid services.
Strategy for Nifty May future – We had long from 8140 levels again
from yesterday after taking profit at higher levels. Now, if trades sustain
above 8280 then one can think for a move towards 8350-8360 levels. Key trading
support will be at 8210 to 8190 levels. I hope that we should not see any more
panic sell off. One fall was expected to wash weak bulls but we got two so far.
S&P 500 (USA) – Study remains unchanged. I was
right that this index has no trade as of now. It is misguiding bulls and bears
both. A down opening and then a recovery is just reverse of the day before.
Technically, once again it is just a time to ignore for trades. If I have to
favour then I can favour bulls based on short term chart but I do not trade. I
still say that long term charts has different words. A long term top is under
formation.
Wednesday, 13 May 2015
13 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Possible inverse H&S pattern may form a support at 8100 levels. If breaks then no long.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 13 May 2015: -
On 12 May 2015, FII Sold INR 1329.43 crs and DII Bought INR
1331.93 crs
I was expected a bounce from low yesterday but I never saw
any bounce for whole day. Even low goes to a level which was not expected. Well,
to some extent charting analysis says that there is a formation of inverse
H&S pattern. One can refer to the chart given.
Nifty must respect 8100 levels as key support before 8000
levels. I believe that it was just one day sell off to wash weak bulls. if that’s
true then also real challenge will emerge at 8350 levels.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting higher opening
after yesterday’s massive sell off. I am expecting 8200 levels for today’s
trading session. Can we expect 8350? Well, if we see close above 8200 levels
then only we can see some hope. Right now, recovery is my hope which will get
support from technical front if it can close above 8200.
80% chance is that we have tested a short term bottom on last
Thursday only.
Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or
to take good advantage join paid services.
Strategy for Nifty May future – We off loaded our long at 8270
yesterday and added again in very last minutes of trades. I am expecting
opening above 8180 levels. If it can sustain above 8220 then only we can hope
for this recovery to sustain. Technical support and stop loss will be at 8100
levels.
S&P 500 (USA) – I was right that this index has no
trade as of now. It is misguiding bulls and bears both. A down opening and then
a recovery is just reverse of the day before. Technically, once again it is
just a time to ignore for trades. If I have to favour then I can favour bulls
based on short term chart but I do not trade. I still say that long term charts
has different words. A long term top is under formation.
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