22 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is another topping formation with resistance at 8450. No buy as long as below 8450.

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For 22 May 2015: -

On 21 May 2015, FII Bought INR -  crs and DII Bought INR 404.01 crs

I can conclude that 8450 is a true and working resistance which is in line with our expectation. Technically, as long as it is staying below 8450 we cannot trade long on indices. Although, we may see stock specific rise this may not be the part of index.

If this market does not fall then it will turn choppy in this range which is just making trading dull. One should prepare for some decisive move on last trading day of the week but so far there is no such indication. If it comes then I will take this as surprise only.

For today’s trading session, I am expecting a silent to negative opening. I do not have any forward trade as of now. Technical support will come at 8380 and then at 8340 levels. On higher side 8450 is a decisive resistance. Banking index may play some key role for the day. I must say that volatility may come at peak if it comes.

80% chance is that we have tested a short term bottom on last Thursday only.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – I still believe that nifty future may not give comfortable trade on higher side. I am expecting volatility on every top now. Technical resistance is at 8450 levels. Once it is above 8450-8460 we may see some quick 30-40 points of rise but then we may see fresh resistance again. Below 8370 we may see easy dip.

S&P 500 (USA) – My study remains same near this kind of high. VIX can bottom out in the range of 11. It is going in the same way and turning soft on high. I repeat that there is no momentum in the market to keep these higher levels. It is only the matter of time for a slip. Yesterday’s high of 2134+ is not invincible but it is tough to maintain such levels. I wait for a hard-core concrete sell signal. I expect dip and a big dip is very close to come.