14 May 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Litmus test will emerge at 8350 levels. We can expect rise with support at 8200 to 8180 levels.

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For 14 May 2015: -

On 13 May 2015, FII Sold INR 71.20 crs and DII Bought INR 254.00 crs

At one time, yesterday’s fall has shocked me. We took long at lows as I was already anticipating support at 8100 levels on Nifty. Them we saw a nice recovery on blue-chip indices. I have already discussed about the possibility of inverse H&S pattern. Key resistance will emerge at 8350 levels which is still 120 points away. I still believe for a move towards 8350. Will it breaks higher? I have no clear as of now but rise towards 8350 must be expected.

Nifty must respect 8100 levels as key support before 8000 levels. I believe that it was just one day sell off to wash weak bulls. If that’s true, then also real challenge will emerge at 8350 levels.

For today’s trading session, I am expecting a silent opening followed by smooth rise towards 8350. If inverse H&S has to form then frequent attempt will come towards 8350. Technical support will be at 8170 and 8100 levels but this support will be for volatile condition of market. If market turns less volatile, then 8200 may also act as support.  

80% chance is that we have tested a short term bottom on last Thursday only.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – We had long from 8140 levels again from yesterday after taking profit at higher levels. Now, if trades sustain above 8280 then one can think for a move towards 8350-8360 levels. Key trading support will be at 8210 to 8190 levels. I hope that we should not see any more panic sell off. One fall was expected to wash weak bulls but we got two so far.

S&P 500 (USA) – Study remains unchanged. I was right that this index has no trade as of now. It is misguiding bulls and bears both. A down opening and then a recovery is just reverse of the day before. Technically, once again it is just a time to ignore for trades. If I have to favour then I can favour bulls based on short term chart but I do not trade. I still say that long term charts has different words. A long term top is under formation.