31 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If today’s gap up (if comes) does not fill up then bet for a possible “New all – time high” in the month of February. It is challenging but not impossible. Key support = 6026-5972

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 31 January 2014: -

On 30 January 2014, FII Sold INR 430.20 crs and DII Bought INR 132.01 crs

I always say that FIIs are known to sell the bottom heavily and buy the top heavily. So, I am not surprised with past few days of sell figure in cash market. Nifty has slipped from 6355 to 6027 without even one positive close. Now, Indian market has perhaps got its all possible bad news. There were no supports from RBI and not even from FOMC.

What can happen next is the big question. We have a possibility after yesterday’s last hour pullback (does not matter how it came). We have a low point on NIFTY at 6027 and then closing at 6073. This is generating a possibility that if market gives a small gap up today and manages to close above it without filling the gap then it can be an “Island reversal” pattern. I must say that it is still just my dream and I want to see it first in today’s closing. It can be ‘island reversal’ or it can be a ‘cluster island reversal’ pattern.

This pattern is a possibility and we can get confirmation today. Indian market will be in serious trouble if this does not happen. So far, globe is suggesting me that above possibility can be a reality.

I can see two strong supports in down side. First comes at yesterday’s low of 6027 and the last one comes at 5972. Pure charting suggests that bulls will be back strongly if it manages to come at 6110. I see it happening today.

Strategy for Nifty February future – I talked about a gap up but SGX Nifty is giving only 3 points right now (7 am). I still believe that opening will be even better than that. If Nifty February future manages to spend time above 6115 then we may see a rally towards 6160 levels. Before applying any bullish target for intraday, it is important to watch 6115 levels for decisive crossover. In the lower side, 6060 will act as good trading support.

Shall I buy low or shall I sell the pullback? Please visit my ‘intraday updates’.

S&P 500 (USA) – It was just the time to buy as support of 1768 was getting respect. I see more pullbacks to come in US market before any fresh leg of sell off. We have good possibility of hitting near 1818 levels in short term. We still need to see closing above 1800 levels. I stopped under estimating bulls at USA long back and suggesting you to do same. From past more than one year, it is a lesson that whenever USA market seen any correction then next rally comes as stronger as the correction. Based on intensity, do not short as you may not get exit point. Just be long.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

30 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If Nifty takes out 6085 in gap down then next key support will be at 6050 and 5972. Rebound is very likely to come. It can be stronger than expected rebound on expiry day.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 January 2014: -

On 29 January 2014, FII Bought INR 250.48 crs and DII Sold INR 16.78 crs

Well, Fed taper 10 billion dollar more in its bond buying program. It was fully expected. In fact lesser than expected earning was hurting US market more than fed tapering. Tapering is reality and global market need to learn how to live without it. I am expecting over react kind of situation today as at one glance it is looking bad for emerging market like India.

Emerging markets like India and Hong Kong has perhaps seen selling for past four days in this aspect only so majority might have discounted. Well, we have derivative expiry today and that is making things more complex. People may be in rush to cover their forced long.  

Now, let us take big question. Can it bounce from low? My answer is very clear. Yes, it can. I am expecting 6085 to be taken out in gap down. Then we have two important levels to play. One is 6050 and then next is 5972. We will surely see good rebound from any of these two levels. Remember, Nifty is falling from 6355 only and it has not seen even single positive close since then. Today is fifth day.

If it react something like July-August 2013 kind of fall then technical analysis will have no answer. In that case NIFTY would be swinging below 5972. So, today and this end of this expiry will give lot of clarity to the traders.

Strategy for Nifty January future – One can expect opening at the lowest levels of January. It can open near 6050 levels. Anything above 6050 on opening will be considered as good opening. Why I am saying it good opening? Reason is that if it holds above 6050 in first few minutes then we have bright chance to see a rebound. If not then it can slide towards 6009 to 5972 levels. those who has short position can enjoy but I have long one. I may opt to average out long rather than stopping out.

Shall I buy low or shall I sell the pullback? Please visit my ‘intraday updates’.

S&P 500 (USA) – It again came near 1768 support zone. It has slipped over 18 points yesterday on lesser than expected earnings and fed taper. Fed reduces the bond buying program by further 10 billion dollar and limiting to 65 billion dollar. It may be a blow out kind of situation of emerging market but not looking so day for US market as long as S&P 500 holds 1768. If it breaks 1768 then we can say that it has formed a big topping pattern. I always focus on follow up. Let us see what is going to happen.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

29 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: My key support of 6085 sustained and hence we opt to buy low. More recovery to come but Fed meeting and derivative expiry holds the key now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 January 2014: -

On 28 January 2014, FII Sold INR 1267.35 crs and DII Bought INR 1178.81 crs

FIIs are known to sell bottom heavily in cash market and they are doing it from past two days. There is no wonder in this trend. What is wondering me is Dr. Raghuram Rajan. He is now following the footsteps of former RBI governor D. Subba Roa. Irony is that when Dr. Raghuram Rajan was prime minister Advisor he was advocating for rate cut from RBI.  Now when he became RBI governor he is fluctuating with his views.

Another thing is that if there were less reason for hike in December month policies (when rates were not hiked) then we have no reason to think for rate hike (we got hike of 25 bps in repo rate).

He himself is a better man to judge his action. I can say that RBI is still sitting on wrong side. Current RBI governor is lucky enough that he is not facing challenges like the way former governor was facing.

Now, this kind of story continues in Indian capital market. You can never able to judge economy policies based on realities.

Technical charts are still saying that Nifty is weak but it is now over stretched and hence technical bounce is very likely. First good sign is that Nifty hit a low at 6085 on dot yesterday and bounced to close at 6126. We are heading towards derivative expiry and that can make market wilder than expected.

We can expect this recovery sustaining if Nifty manages to stay above 6165 levels. It is tough task but not the impossible task. Let us see today’s trade.

Strategy for Nifty January future – It is going to be a flat opening. There are signs of recovery but those are based on technical pullback only. There are two important levels, one is at 6172 and another at 6211. Firstly, it needs to stand above 6172 to claim for some intraday strength. Secondly, it needs to stay above 6211 to say that recovery can sustain. I hope for recovery and derivative short covering may add fuel.

Shall I buy low or shall I sell the pullback? Please visit my ‘intraday updates’.

S&P 500 (USA) – I had already quoted for this rebound as S&P 500 were near key support of 1769. It has to surpass 1800 marks also. If I keep fed minutes on one side then 1800 marks can come by today itself. it is very likely to gain more from current levels. Futures are also confirming my views for this rebound. I feel that today’s rise or fall will be decisive. One should never under estimate the bulls sitting at USA. Key support right now will be again at 1769 and resistance on higher side will be at 1814+ only.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

28 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: All eyes are on RBI policy now. Key supports for NIFTY are – 6085 > 6050 and then finally at 5950. Optimistic support for the day is at 6085. We may opt to buy low today.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 January 2014: -

On 27 January 2014, FII Sold INR 1334.21 crs and DII Bought INR 151.02 crs

So, Nifty hit exact low at 6130 and closed almost at day’s low. This kind of support works only if we would see bounce from those. If not then indices are likely to move towards next support. This support can be at 6185 levels. one need to note that 50 DMA was at 6218 which was taken out in gap down.

Now 100 DMA is at 6106 and 200 DMA is at 5960. Where will this fall stop when charts are saying that it may just be the beginning? RSI was on negative divergence since November 2013 itself. I feel that after few intermediate bounces, Nifty will finally come close to 200 DMA or at 5950. This is going to be key support.

Now all eyes are on RBI’s upcoming monetary policy review. I expecting that he will keep all rates unchanged. As he did not hiked rate in December month policy so he has no big reason to think about hiking right now when WPI and CPI was lower. Now, can he give rate cut? It is not easy either as Indian Rupee is showing fresh sign of weakness and he has to do something immediately.

For today’s session, watch out for support in the zone of 6085 to 6050. In fact, I would be happy to see it coming at 6050. It should come near to 6050 but it should not break. In that case we may have a point for some technical rebound. These technical figures are not going to change even after RBI’s monetary policy outcome. Take a note that now we are no more under effect of “W” pattern.

We have RBI policy now, then we have fed meeting and then derivative expiry. A lot to happen in market now but trading opportunity if not going to be easy in this mess. I had already quoted earlier than below 10800 BANKNIFTY can see a crash. So, now it is looking for 10400 or much lower.

Strategy for Nifty January future – It may be another gap down of nearly 50 points more as it is missing current support of 6150.It has already corrected a lot so I will prefer to buy either at the support of 6085 or at 6050. RBI may not be a spoilsport. It is still not easy to predict. It will be safer to take call after RBI policy only.

Shall I buy low or shall I sell the pullback? Please visit my ‘intraday updates’.

S&P 500 (USA) – It was quoted for support at 1768. Yesterday night at one point it was hitting 1772 and then rebounded strongly up to 1794. Finally, it closed at 1782 which is below 1784. I can say that it is not a bad rebound. It has raised hope for today. As long as it holds 1768 without breaking it can rebound like this. I can still warn that for the first time after many months bulls are losing charm. Now chances are very less for any new life time high. Sooner or later S&P 500 will go lower towards 1650-1600 levels in medium term. Do not worry immediately. We will get a bounce.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

27 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty to go lower side of “W” pattern which is at 6140. It is wild gap down but do not short this kind of 100-120 points of gap down without pullback.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 January 2014: -

On 24 January 2014, FII Sold INR 230.96 crs and DII Sold INR 78.05 crs

Asian stocks declined, with the regional benchmark index heading for its steepest three-day loss in five months, as concern that the global economic recovery is faltering spurred investors to sell riskier assets. US market also got the sell off on Friday night with the same reason.

It was mentioned on Friday that if it failed to fill up the gap down then it has good chances for dip. It closed on horrible note. Now it is ready to take a gap down of 100 points. It can never be easy to trade after this kind of gap down. Next key support will be at 6140-6130 levels. If it breaks then it can hit 6085 levels too.

We have RBI’s monetary policy review tomorrow and derivative expiry this Thursday. It is generating a phase of news based trades for few more days.

What is concerning is banks and what can rescue Indian market is also banks. I am again mentioning that charts are saying for a steep fall on Bank Nifty if it breaks 10800 on closing basis. It is likely to come now.

Strategy for Nifty January future – It is going to give second day of gap down and this time it can be bigger than 100 points. If you do not have shorts then perhaps I suggest you not to touch this market for shorts. It is a general rule to avoid trades after wild gap up or gap down. Technical support will come in the range of 6140 to 6130. You can expect Nifty January month future to run in discount too. Shall I buy low or shall I sell the pullback? Please visit my ‘intraday updates’.

S&P 500 (USA) – It has opened on Friday with gap down near 1815 and broken immediately. Then, selling continues as expected with rapid pace. It was biggest weekly drop of past more than two years. 1768 is going to be likely support if it breaks 1784 right now. This is perhaps first time after a year that bulls at USA are at back foot. I still suggest not to under estimating them. If follow up of selling comes then only we will see fresh fall.  It has already slipped from 1847 to 1790 in three days. Call is – Do not short without any pullback.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

24 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is under flagship of “W” pattern and another gap coming. Technical support is in the zone of 6300-6290. It can rebound if it holds 6290 and it needs to rebound to save bulls.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 January 2014: -

On 23 January 2014, FII Bought INR 433.60 crs and DII Sold INR 393.60 crs

First of all, we saw sell off in US market last night which was driven by Chinese data and earning analysis. It seems that US investors are deciding about fundamental valuation of stock after sharp one year rally. Of course, they may demand better performance. There is nothing like systemic failure. Correction is the part of the market.

Take a note that when US market goes for one month’s lowest close; Indian is on one month high. It is very rare to see. Some adjustment must come and so we may see gap down. Charting wise Nifty has yet to cross its decisive hurdle of 6360. The “W” pattern always makes market dicey. It has closed at highest point of the day and set to open lower. It is important to hold yesterday’s low of 6316. Although, Nifty can get technical support is only at 6300 to 6290 zone.

It can never be good idea to short the market after gap down. This kind of wild market behavior is the part of “W” pattern which is running right now. I still feel that Indian market can take a bounce towards 6360. Cross over of 6360 will give us a possible new all-time high again.

What is concerning is banks and what can rescue Indian market is also banks.

Strategy for Nifty January future – Gap down is very much expected right now but Indian market may open better than whatever SGX Nifty will give at 9 am. After gap down, we will have trading support at 6300-6280 levels. Note down very clearly that a GAP down must fill up to continue with uptrend otherwise it can be “Bear GAP down”. So, off load all long if it fail to recover after gap down.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said that wait for the cross of 1854 to go fresh long. Here, it saved you. We saw a test of 1850 few days back and it hit 1815 yesterday night. I am saying after every this kind of dip that do not underestimate the bulls at USA. They are strongest bull of the world. Call as of now is that as long as it holds 1815, the low of 13^th January 2014 you can again expect another attempt to 1850. US market goes at monthly low right now so one must avoid any long if it breaks 1815.       

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

23 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has tested 6350 as a dot. Now, cross above 6350 will raise the possibility of new all-time high even with “W” pattern. Higher levels may be indecisive.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 January 2014: -

On 22 January 2014, FII Bought INR 279.45 crs and DII Sold INR 90.57 crs

I said that 6350-6360 should be a possibility as long as Nifty is staying above 6265. We got 6350. It was another painful intraday session as rise came very late hours. It was long and frustrating waiting. This is characteristic of “W” pattern. Remember that even for “W” pattern rise is possible. Only thing is that rise and fall may come in uncertain ways. It cannot give any clarity till it move above 6420.

It is looking like market is turning optimistic before monetary policy which will come next week. It should be noted that we are just few days away from January month derivative expiry. It is generating the possibility of short covering on indices. It can be a massive one. I can again say that it is what I am feeling. I cannot deny the possibility of reversal too due to “W” pattern. This pattern is known to hide the reality of market movement.  

For today’s trading, we are likely to see a flat opening. Then it will get good trading support at 6300. Actually, as long as it is above 6300 Nifty should try to move higher only. Picking can shift to banking stocks as those may turn strong now.

Strategy for Nifty January future – Flat opening in expected. Then in any decline traders can use any dip to trade long with stop loss at 6315 levels. We have a possibility of going higher near 6370. If trades sustain above 6370 then one can expect a possible new all-time high by today itself. It seems that new all-time high can come by short covering only. We are near to expiry but looking like shorting is a possibility only on next week.  

S&P 500 (USA) – It did nothing much last night so my study remains same. In my view, buy is permissible above 1854 or from near to 1820 with stop loss at 1807 or below. I can still say prefer to buy only above 1854 and be safe. If it is ending at 1850 then it can be just the multiple test of resistance. It is now almost a month near 1850 but it is not crossing. It is better to wait for the cross above 1854 to add fresh long if you are bull. Can it trap bulls near 1850? I cannot deny.      

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

22 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty need to fill up small gap down to remain on strong trajectory. It has trading support at 6265 and resistance at 6350-6360.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 January 2014: -

On 21 January 2014, FII Sold INR 43.74 crs and DII Bought INR 181.50 crs

6350-6360 should be a possibility as long as Nifty is staying above 6265. Well, above that “W” formation is throwing the ‘indecisiveness ‘of market. Remember that nifty is near to 6300 from past more than a month but it has not given those sense of possible big rise.

This “W” formation may play its effect in the zone of 6130 to 6420 levels. This might be explanation that market has reverses in odd way on many trading days. This can continue. “W” pattern is known for its indecisiveness. Normally, traders should put the pen down from trades.  

For today’s trading, we are likely to see a small gap down. It is very important that it should fill the gap if it wants to move higher. If it fail to fill the gap then it can again correct towards 6240 and then near 50 DMA which is below 6200.

Technical charts are still saying that we may get support at 6265 but this has to be tested during trading hours only. Let us see. Market may remain direction for this week too.

Strategy for Nifty January future – Small gap down is expected after US market sell off from high last night. It was not expected by Indian market. Well. Nifty January future has trading support at 6300. We can expect fall only if it start spending time below 6300. So it is very important to see opening quotes. Although, threshold support is at 6280. It cannot be out of race for rise as long as it is above 6280.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said, “In my view, buy is permissible above 1854 or from near to 1820 with stop loss at 1807 or below.” Yesterday night it hit near to 1850 and then slipped. I can still say prefer to buy only above 1854 and be safe. If it is ending at 1850 then it can be just the multiple test of resistance. It is now almost a month near 1850 but it is not crossing. It is better to wait for the cross above 1854 to add fresh long if you are bull. Can it trap bulls near 1850? I cannot deny.      

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

21 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty can take attempt for 6350-6360 again as long as it holds 6265 levels. Be aware about possible “W” pattern.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 January 2014: -

On 20 January 2014, FII Bought INR 384.89 crs and DII Bought INR 310.47 crs

Somehow Nifty has saved 6240 and bounced to close above 6300 levels. Now we are in side wise range of 6240 to 6350 levels. We can expect Nifty hitting in the zone of 6350 to 6360 again. Market is on worse possible charting development which will not give rest on any side. You can look at on daily chart. It is emerging with “W” pattern.

This “W” may play its effect in the zone of 6130 to 6420 levels. This might be explanation that market has reverses in odd way on many trading days. This can continue. “W” pattern is known for its indecisiveness. Normally, traders should put the pen down from trades.  

For today’s trading, support is expected at 6265 levels first. If it breaks then we can see more profit taking and a move towards 50 DMA which is at 6193 right now. I can sense that fall may not stop even at 50 DMA. We may see a final touch towards 6140 levels too.

Downside is not looking as the case right now. As long as it is above 6265, it may try to take a move around 6350-6360 levels. I cannot deny the possibility of hitting levels around 6400+. Do not try to take a view for investment at these levels. Political parties have no economic agenda before election and this can hurt sentiment in medium term.

Strategy for Nifty January future – Premium fluctuations are showing confusion for direction. We can get good trading support at 6300 levels. As long as it holds near 6300 levels we can still believe for some higher attempts. Well, if it settles well below 6300 then we will see same story and another turning back. So, it can be the day which can either end up at 6360 or may take attempt towards 6260. Very clearly, it is not clear to me which way will it choose. Reason is given above that we have “W” formation on trading chart. Trade less is the key.   

S&P 500 (USA) – from last more than a year US market turn on Moving averages support, not on technical indicators. We have seen too many negative divergences on MACD and RSI but all failed to make impact. It is true that someday it will hurt US market badly but those days are away as long as it is above 50 DMA. For S&P 500, 50 DMA is at 1807. In my view, buy is permissible above 1854 or from near to 1820 with stop loss at 1807 or below. I can still sense a newer life high this week but I am not opting long.    

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

20 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If NIFTY settles below 6240-6230 levels then it can go to hit 50 DMA @ 6193 and worse case test of 6140 too by this week itself.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 January 2014: -

On 17 January 2014, FII Bought INR 75.27 crs and DII Bought INR 141.65 crs

I have already quoted that once mid cap and small cap indices starts underperforming Nifty we will see weakness. Even on Friday, we saw small cap indices falling over 2%. It seems that investors and traders are off loading their riskier portfolio. I think that market is doing right and moving on suggested road map.

I was not convinced with Bank Nifty and it has also slipped more than Nifty. Key support for BANK NIFTY is at 10800-10780 levels which is just 120 points away. A break down situation is very likely on banking stocks. This week may not be bad for the world but it can turn disaster for Indian banking stocks.  

For today’s trading, support is expected at 6250-6240 levels first. If it breaks then we can see more profit taking and a move towards 50 DMA which is at 6193 right now. I can sense that fall may not stop even at 50 DMA. We may see a final touch towards 6140 levels too.

If Nifty starts settling below 6240-6230 levels then we have lesser chance for rebound either for this week. I strongly advise a strong word of caution. Whatever price we are seeing on technology stocks are also too scary as those are way higher.  

Strategy for Nifty January future – SGX NIFTY is hinting that we will see opening below Friday’s low of 6247. If this happens then market may not have any good chance to rebound sooner. We should see it moving lower towards 6200-6190 levels. Domination may come from weakness in banking stocks. I am already short from higher levels and I will prefer to hold my shorts as long as weakness sustain this market.

S&P 500 (USA) – from last more than a year US market turn on Moving averages support, not on technical indicators. We have seen too many negative divergences on MACD and RSI but all failed to make impact. It is true that someday it will hurt US market badly but those days are away as long as it is above 50 DMA. For S&P 500, 50 DMA is at 1807. In my view, buy is permissible above 1854 or from near to 1820 with stop loss at 1807 or below. I can still sense a newer life high this week but I am not opting long.    

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

17 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is looking like to fail at 6350. Expect trading support at 6290 and break may cause profit taking. Bank Nifty to underperform.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 January 2014: -

On 16 January 2014, FII Bought INR 479.28 crs and DII Sold INR 791.75 crs

I am quoting this from past few days that one must watch mid cap and small indices for price actions. If mid cap and small cap indices underperformed Nifty then it might be first signs of trouble. Usually, traders and investors pullout their money first from mid-cap and small cap near to the top. We are above 6300 levels on Nifty. Charting will not show any big sign of concern.

Bank Nifty is still not convincing market. In spite of favorable CPI, IIP and WPI data, it is struggling. This can convert in to first sign of weakness if profit taking hit the market anytime. Remember that Indian market is again under the phase of guaranteed policy paralysis due to upcoming elections. No one is there to talk about reforms now.

For today’s trading support is expected at 6290-6280 levels first. If it breaks then we can see some profit taking to dominate. I need to repeat that 10800 levels is very crucial for Bank Nifty. If it breaks 10800 levels anyday any time then we will see big fall.

Trading range is narrow on broader perspective from past few months. I always say that 6300 + levels has a history to trap bulls in Indian market. hence do not take anything guaranteed and be cautious. Comes out of the long trades if mid cap and small cap indices start closing in red.

Strategy for Nifty January future – It was expected to come near 6360. It came with a high at 6351 and immediately slipped. SGX Nifty is hinting for a gap down of nearly 20 points. Technical charts are suggesting that we can have some trading support at 6290-6280 levels. It can begin profit taking once it breaks those levels. On higher side 6350-6369 remains tougher resistance to cross.

S&P 500 (USA) – 1854 is a decisive resistance right now. When it was looking that it can cross easily it slipped a little. It is true that one should try to spot top or bottom in the market. Still, I am sensing that failure at 1850 may not give good results to the bulls. It can almost try to form a double top kind of pattern. There are no strong sell signals yet but cautions is surely advisable if it fail to break above 1850-1854 ranges.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

16 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: As we got crossover of 6300 so we may see levels of 6360 or nearer now. Crossover of 6360 will be decisive to bet for new all-time high.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely. 

For 16 January 2014: -

On 15 January 2014, FII Bought INR 713.29 crs and DII Sold INR 690.02 crs

US market goes to make another fresh all-time high and hence global cue remains supportive. We got WPI at 6.16% yesterday which gave a hope for perhaps rate cut in coming monetary policy review. If not rate cut then also there will be no reason for rate hike either.

Given technical charts are suggesting that we are on critical levels. Trend line joining the top at 6415 and 6358 is coming at current levels. It is clear that crossover of this trend line will give more rise for Nifty. It is looking like 6358 is within reach for Nifty which will be decisive for further rise. If profit taking has to come then it will come before 6360.  

Mid cap and small cap indices has under- performed Nifty yesterday too. This is little concerning factor. We have many crucial results today. TCS, Axis Bank and Bajaj Auto will present their number.

Trading range is narrow on broader perspective from past few months. I always say that 6300 + levels has a history to trap bulls in Indian market. hence do not take anything guaranteed and be cautious. Comes out of the long trades if mid cap and small cap indices start closing in red.

Strategy for Nifty January future – As it is above 6310 levels then we have reasons to believe for 6360 levels to come. If it has to come then it must by today only. 6360 to 6370 will be caution levels. Downside support shifted only at 6290-6280 levels. This 60-70 points may be the range for the day. are we heading for new all-time high? Yes, we may be. If we stay above 6360 then we are definitely heading for new all-time high. Will it sustain or not? That’s a different question.  

S&P 500 (USA) – Finally, another new life time high came for S&P 500 came. Technical charts are saying for decisive action at 1854. Crossover above 1854 will give 1880-1888 levels by this month itself. I cannot see any trouble as long as S&P 500 is above 1840. We are likely to see a cross over of 1854 by today itself. stay long and enjoy the rise.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

15 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 6300 is still tougher to deal. Technical support will be at 6200-6190 which may be tested in coming few days again. BANK NIFTY- last hope @ 10800 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 January 2014: -

On 14 January 2014, FII Sold INR 260.88 crs and DII Sold INR 97.93 crs

Above figures are showing some rare development. Nifty is at 6250 ranges and FII has sold in cash market. This may be concerning as it may be the first hint of money out flow. Since 1^st January 2014 itself, market is not going in confident mood. It is showing the reflection of some possible nervousness which is coming due to political moves. We may not see good supportive decision for economy.

We are again on the day when global market is moving higher as US recovered its previous day’s loss. This is avoiding immediate weakness in Indian market. I cannot see much negative as global cues. In fact all are positives only.

For today’s session we have two important supports. One is at 6240; if it breaks then we can expect next support at 6190 levels only. On higher side 6300 is still a challenging level. Charts will open the scope of rise as long as it holds 6190 levels.  

It is a big question how long can it hold. I suggest to watch mid cap and small cap indices as first sign of trouble or strength will come from there only. Bank Nifty is still on concerning note. Any break below 10800 levels can cause trouble.

Strategy for Nifty January future – We can expect flat opening for today. Technical resistance will be at 6290 to 6310 levels. In the downside it can see some remarkable profit taking only if it breaks 6230 levels. It will be better to watch for the breaks 6230 for shorting for intraday. It is not very impossible. It can happen anytime. You can expect better activity on Bank Nifty.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said yesterday that let us see the levels of 1824 as resistance first. If it fails then only it is a short. It has opened higher and immediately goes above 1824 and then recovered in a massive way. This is the reason I always say that bulls are strongest at USA. Now it is again generating a scope to test 1845-1850 levels. We will see possible top formation in the zone of 1845-1850. Next bullish move can start only above 1854. Cross over of 1854 can give 1880 levels.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

14 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: US market got biggest drop of 3 months. If Nifty fail to fill the gap and stay below 6250 then do not trade any long. Mid cap & small cap under performance has just begun.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 January 2014: -

On 13 January 2014, FII Bought INR 413.85 crs and DII Sold INR 317.52 crs

Nifty closed on highest point of past seven trading sessions. Money flow is not justifying yesterday’s rally specially when mid cap and small cap failed to close even in positive. Later tonight, U.S. stocks fell sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slammed by a triple-digit drop following comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart that the U.S. central bank should push ahead with its efforts to wind down monetary stimulus.

On Friday, market has closed on weak note that gave bull’s gap up on Monday. Now when it has closed stronger on Monday it is about to give bear gap down today. This is just not making sense for those who love to forward trades or holding trades for few days.

Pure technical analysis suggests that if it fails to fill up the bear gap down then only option left. It will again try to test 6140 levels in the days to come. These are tougher days to trade. We can hope that market should try to react positively after yesterday’s CPI data which came at 9.87%.

Technical resistance will be at 6290-6300 levels. If market has to react positive from low then also it need to hold 6220 levels. Be prepare to see some effect of political jitters too.

Strategy for Nifty January future – We saw gap up on Monday and then rise. Now we are going to see gap down. This is meaningless trend right now. We can see opening near 6250 levels. If it trades below 6275 after poor start for hours then fall is very likely. If recovery wants to come then it must and must save 6230 levels. Is it going to save 6230? I have strong doubt.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P 500 has broken the support of 1824 and closed even below 1820. This is suggesting that it has slipped after almost forming double top which is lower. We saw a high at 1843 and then a fall. Technical suggests that this weakness can continue. It is looking like to break the levels of 1800 levels. One should not be in hurry. Let us see the levels of 1824 as resistance first. If it fails then only it is a short. One thing is looking sure that it can turn sell of rise market any moment.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

13 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Poor IIP and hope of rates holds may give good start but follow up will come in favour of bears only. Last hope for NIFTY 6145-6140.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 January 2014: -

On 10 January 2014, FII Bought INR 68.16 crs and DII Bought INR 81.73 crs

We saw full 100 points swing on Friday’s session but it give up almost 70 points from its intraday high in post 2 pm trades. We got November month IIP data after-market hours. It came at (-) 2.10%. This is too bad figures and hence giving a hope that RBI will at least hold key rates in upcoming RBI policy. Now market is likely to wait for WPI data which will come this week.

On other hand Infosys gave better-than-expected earnings figures. I can sense that developments are not as bad as technical set up. It has closed near bottom or well off the low for fives in a row. I can expect some gap up today on the optimism on bank rate due to poor IIP.

Will that gap up hold? Rend suggests that it can give up easily. One has to accept that now Nifty is sustaining below 50 DMA. This is now turning cause of concern to me. I still below that 6145-6140 is a good trading support to deal.

Let us see what is going to happen to happen today. One thing is for sure that if it breaks 6145-6140 then we will see panic sell off. BANK NIFTY is also on very critical support. If it breaks and sustain below 10800 then we may be close to a massive sell off.

Strategy for Nifty January future – As SGX Nifty is indicating, it can take some higher start. Problem will begin once it fill up the gap which can happen anytime. Although I believe that start may not be as good as SGX Nifty is quoting right now which is at 6215. Remember that Nifty is giving up its premium to a big extend in the mid of the series. Friday’s low of 6156 will play decisive role. If it breaks 6156 then expect all round heavy panic sell off which can ignore all good news and results.   

S&P 500 (USA) – US market can see pullback from any intraday dip as bulls are buying every dip. I can still say that as long as 1824 holds, it will go higher. There is no need to change the analysis as it is most clear market for bulls. We can expect the litmus test with the beginning of this week. It is going to be decisive if it can able to breaks 1850-1854 on higher side.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar