17 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is looking like to fail at 6350. Expect trading support at 6290 and break may cause profit taking. Bank Nifty to underperform.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 January 2014: -

On 16 January 2014, FII Bought INR 479.28 crs and DII Sold INR 791.75 crs

I am quoting this from past few days that one must watch mid cap and small indices for price actions. If mid cap and small cap indices underperformed Nifty then it might be first signs of trouble. Usually, traders and investors pullout their money first from mid-cap and small cap near to the top. We are above 6300 levels on Nifty. Charting will not show any big sign of concern.

Bank Nifty is still not convincing market. In spite of favorable CPI, IIP and WPI data, it is struggling. This can convert in to first sign of weakness if profit taking hit the market anytime. Remember that Indian market is again under the phase of guaranteed policy paralysis due to upcoming elections. No one is there to talk about reforms now.

For today’s trading support is expected at 6290-6280 levels first. If it breaks then we can see some profit taking to dominate. I need to repeat that 10800 levels is very crucial for Bank Nifty. If it breaks 10800 levels anyday any time then we will see big fall.

Trading range is narrow on broader perspective from past few months. I always say that 6300 + levels has a history to trap bulls in Indian market. hence do not take anything guaranteed and be cautious. Comes out of the long trades if mid cap and small cap indices start closing in red.

Strategy for Nifty January future – It was expected to come near 6360. It came with a high at 6351 and immediately slipped. SGX Nifty is hinting for a gap down of nearly 20 points. Technical charts are suggesting that we can have some trading support at 6290-6280 levels. It can begin profit taking once it breaks those levels. On higher side 6350-6369 remains tougher resistance to cross.

S&P 500 (USA) – 1854 is a decisive resistance right now. When it was looking that it can cross easily it slipped a little. It is true that one should try to spot top or bottom in the market. Still, I am sensing that failure at 1850 may not give good results to the bulls. It can almost try to form a double top kind of pattern. There are no strong sell signals yet but cautions is surely advisable if it fail to break above 1850-1854 ranges.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar