30 January 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If Nifty takes out 6085 in gap down then next key support will be at 6050 and 5972. Rebound is very likely to come. It can be stronger than expected rebound on expiry day.
You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 30
January 2014: -
On 29
January 2014, FII Bought INR 250.48 crs and DII Sold INR 16.78 crs
Well, Fed
taper 10 billion dollar more in its bond buying program. It was fully expected.
In fact lesser than expected earning was hurting US market more than fed
tapering. Tapering is reality and global market need to learn how to live
without it. I am expecting over react kind of situation today as at one glance
it is looking bad for emerging market like India.
Emerging
markets like India and Hong Kong has perhaps seen selling for past four days in
this aspect only so majority might have discounted. Well, we have derivative
expiry today and that is making things more complex. People may be in rush to
cover their forced long.
Now, let
us take big question. Can it bounce from low? My answer is very clear. Yes, it
can. I am expecting 6085 to be taken out in gap down. Then we have two
important levels to play. One is 6050 and then next is 5972. We will surely see
good rebound from any of these two levels. Remember, Nifty is falling from 6355
only and it has not seen even single positive close since then. Today is fifth
day.
If it
react something like July-August 2013 kind of fall then technical analysis will
have no answer. In that case NIFTY would be swinging below 5972. So, today and
this end of this expiry will give lot of clarity to the traders.
Strategy
for Nifty January future – One can expect
opening at the lowest levels of January. It can open near 6050 levels. Anything
above 6050 on opening will be considered as good opening. Why I am saying it
good opening? Reason is that if it holds above 6050 in first few minutes then
we have bright chance to see a rebound. If not then it can slide towards 6009
to 5972 levels. those who has short position can enjoy but I have long one. I may
opt to average out long rather than stopping out.
Shall I buy low or shall I sell the pullback? Please visit my ‘intraday
updates’.
S&P
500
(USA) – It again came near 1768
support zone. It has slipped over 18 points yesterday on lesser than expected earnings
and fed taper. Fed reduces the bond buying program by further 10 billion dollar
and limiting to 65 billion dollar. It may be a blow out kind of situation of
emerging market but not looking so day for US market as long as S&P 500
holds 1768. If it breaks 1768 then we can say that it has formed a big topping
pattern. I always focus on follow up. Let us see what is going to happen.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
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