31 August 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Market may not able to sustain at higher levels. All eyes are towards GDP data and the outcome of Jackson hole meet. Resistance – 5354 and 5374. New wave of selling will begin very soon.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Yesterday nifty came near to the support of 5240 and low was just 5255 levels. I must say that support acted more on intraday basis. I still feel that more falls has yet to come but there is some interesting development on Elliott wave chart.

Wave ‘a’ has started from 5449 and ended at 5255 (as of yesterday’s low), so the recovery from 5255 to 5343 is giving wave ‘b’ but unfortunately it become intraday and majority of rise came in last 25 minutes of trades. Most of the time this kind of formation results a sharper follow up of main trend. You can observe same from the given charts too.

So now the question is that where will we get that confirmation and what can be the target? Even if it go in the ratio of 1 to 1 compared to wave ‘a’ then also it will try to move towards 5149. On higher side it will have fewer stiff resistances like 5330 < 5353 < 5374. I am sensing that 5353 is a tougher figure and 5374 will remains untested.

Remember, I have already said that rise above 5378 – 5400 will remain ‘unreliable’. One must note that yesterday’s rise was dominated by short covering only. You cannot expect rise in the absence of reforms.

GDP Data – Expect 5.30%. In the worse case it can come as 4.90% also. It is very challenging time for economy. Market may not enjoy for the hope rate cut if data comes poor as RBI has already said that their priority is ‘inflation’. Rest god knows what market wants.

Jackson Hole meeting – Stock market may not be ready to accept what fed used to say in last many meeting. So, time is looking to be over for the ‘words’ of ‘hopes’. I can say that chances are less for QE 3. Even if it comes then also it will be not like the way market is wanting for.

More over, India’s problem seems to be much bigger over coalgate scam. It seems “COAL” becomes a political fuel and it may act in the same way till 2014. I am repeating again that nation is at critical phase and politicians hardly care about it.

Abhijit group – It is a company whose prime product is ‘under garment’. I fail to understand what this company is doing with coal blocks. Few names in coal block scam – TATASTEEL, ESSAR, JINDAL POWER, RPOWER (as updated by media reports).

Wave development: -

On 30 August - Firstly, I have quoted for resistance at 5449-5450. I have already said that this is ‘most unreliable’ rise. You can ask for reason. Just a fair question, what was the base of this rise? Just hope and blind hope. Now we in the final count down of hopes for Indian, European and American market. I have said this in past and repeating again that policy makers are playing with the fire of stock market. They are just buying time from stock market. They will not act on their words.

Earlier in the week - Elliott waves are turning very critical now. You can able to see that now every single wave is contracting in nature. First rising wave started form 4531 has a life for 1100 points, and then next rising wave started from 4770 and has a life for 580 points. Next rising wave started from 5032 and has a life for 418 points only.

Earlier in the month - I like to add few more things for “reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247 points. Confirmation point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~) 83. It means 5279 + 83 = 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation rule to bet for 5526. As it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this close to close basis. (This is a “must know” concept).

Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27^th July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3^rd August 2012, we got a low of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.

This is encouraging with few challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will be lesser compared to past few waves.

Charts are saying that if we manage to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526. Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,

Beginning point of wave = 5032.40

Wave 1 = 5246.35

Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65

Those who are bullish in their nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

(If you think that other readers should also read this article then recommend this on google by clicking g+ link given below).

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates. Link – www.twitter.com/viecapital

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Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

30 August 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It came at 5290. Now prepare for 5240 too, even derivative expiry will not help. Just sell this market even if rise comes. It is falling from last 5 trading days so caution required.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Firstly, I have quoted for resistance at 5449-5450. I have already said that this is ‘most unreliable’ rise. You can ask for reason. Just a fair question, what was the base of this rise? Just hope and blind hope. Now we in the final count down of hopes for Indian, European and American market. I have said this in past and repeating again that policy makers are playing with the fire of stock market. They are just buying time from stock market. They will not act on their words.

Elliott wave charts are suggesting that that we are in the progression of wave ‘a’. There is no great indication yet for the end of this wave. Based on the end point of wave ‘a’, we can calculate the magnitude of next fall. I have those ideas but those are not suitable to publish in advance as I require some confirmation.

Take a note that indices are not reflecting the true pain of fall. Look at mid cap and small cap indices which are falling with higher pace than blue chip index. One has to be ‘stock specific’ and make proper entry in the trade. This is not enough to get profit. You need to give time to your trades, little more than normal.

If does not matter if I like or not, if you like it or not, but we need to watch parliament too. Sought on CoalGate will run as of past. Mr. Kapil Sibbal is saying that they cannot cancel coal block allocation as country is already running short of coal production and hence power.

At one go this comments look so good and in favour of nation benefit. I am not supporting any political parties but I have a simple question. Can only allocation is sufficient enough to fulfill coal demand? Tell me how many companies have started production in last 6 years?

Do you know? If not then I am telling you, just one (as per media report),in best case also those are just fewer. So tell me, is it helping nation? Sorry, but I feel that ministers are giving logics which are far away from financial world’s reality. My concern is that India is heading towards a phase of ‘Power Crisis’.

Wave development: -

Elliott waves are turning very critical now. You can able to see that now every single wave is contracting in nature. First rising wave started form 4531 has a life for 1100 points, and then next rising wave started from 4770 and has a life for 580 points. Next rising wave started from 5032 and has a life for 418 points only.

I like to add few more things for “reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247 points. Confirmation point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~) 83. It means 5279 + 83 = 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation rule to bet for 5526. As it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this close to close basis. (This is a “must know” concept).

Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27^th July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3^rd August 2012, we got a low of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.

This is encouraging with few challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will be lesser compared to past few waves.

Charts are saying that if we manage to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526. Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,

Beginning point of wave = 5032.40

Wave 1 = 5246.35

Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65

Those who are bullish in their nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

(If you think that other readers should also read this article then recommend this on google by clicking g+ link given below).

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates. Link – www.twitter.com/viecapital

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

29 August 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Few days back it was informed that rise will not sustain above 5400. Now, silent or violent expiry but outlook remains same. Sell this market.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

It has broken 5340 and sustained below that for the majority of the trading hours yesterday. It is signaling that market is close to show further weakness. One must note that mid cap and small cap indices are performing worse than blue chip indices. I must tell you that this kind of phenomenon is the sign that either we are going to form a short term top of long term top. Whatever is the case but it is clear that this market is at least going to see a dip which is going to continue for few days/weeks.

Technical levels that can act as immediate support will be at 5290. Break of 5290 will be an opening for the further fall towards 5240 levels too. On higher side you can expect two intraday resistances; one is at 5350 itself and other at 5371.

You can ask if it can change anything above 5371. Well, my answer remains same. No matter what kind of recovery comes in the market but fall is unavoidable. Do take a note that most of global indices are trading with extremely thin volume.

It is only the choppy movements in the market which is making short trades uncomfortable. Actually, now a day every trades demand little time domination. So give some time to your trades. Take a position and try to stick with those for few days.

Wave development: -

Elliott waves are turning very critical now. You can able to see that now every single wave is contracting in nature. First rising wave started form 4531 has a life for 1100 points, and then next rising wave started from 4770 and has a life for 580 points. Next rising wave started from 5032 and has a life for 418 points only.

I like to add few more things for “reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247 points. Confirmation point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~) 83. It means 5279 + 83 = 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation rule to bet for 5526. As it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this close to close basis. (This is a “must know” concept).

Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27^th July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3^rd August 2012, we got a low of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.

This is encouraging with few challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will be lesser compared to past few waves.

Charts are saying that if we manage to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526. Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,

Beginning point of wave = 5032.40

Wave 1 = 5246.35

Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65

Those who are bullish in their nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

(If you think that other readers should also read this article then recommend this on google by clicking g+ link given below).

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates. Link – www.twitter.com/viecapital

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

28 August 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It finally came near to 5340. Break below 5340 will result fall towards 5290 levels. I will not surprise if August month derivative expiry end near 5200.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I have already expressed the importance of 5340 earlier also, hope you remember. We came back to those levels once it broke 5400. It was fully expected move. Technical charts are suggesting that break below 5340 will give us the levels of 5290. One should look at above chart to understand Fibonacci supports.

On higher side, no levels can make this market safer. I am assuming that 5380 and 5400 will act as stiff trading resistances. We need to understand the geo-political situation too apart from technical charts. Many leading global market is trading with almost lowest volume of year 2012.

I have already expressed my concerns over absence of reform. Our market will bound to fall if policy makers fail to give some boost up dose to the economy. It is a national shame to see the way things are developing in parliament. Firstly a bigger scam then demands of resignation and then denial of resignation. Whatever is happening in the ‘name of politics’, those will make much bigger impact to stock market in long run. We are far far away from improvement.

The way coal blocks have allocated, I just remember a phrase when I was in school days, “ram naam ki loot hai, lot sake tou lut”. I feel sorry to that parliament is not doing its work. I am not blaming any single political parties, all are equally responsible. If I am saying this then it means that perhaps we are living on the sharp edge for the “VERTICAL DIP” in Indian economy. I am not more than a drawing room analyst but I have successfully forecasted for the fall in Indian GDP toward 5% long back by January 2012.

Wave development: -

Elliott waves are turning very critical now. You can able to see that now every single wave is contracting in nature. First rising wave started form 4531 has a life for 1100 points, and then next rising wave started from 4770 and has a life for 580 points. Next rising wave started from 5032 and has a life for 418 points only.

I like to add few more things for “reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247 points. Confirmation point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~) 83. It means 5279 + 83 = 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation rule to bet for 5526. As it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this close to close basis. (This is a “must know” concept).

Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27^th July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3^rd August 2012, we got a low of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.

This is encouraging with few challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will be lesser compared to past few waves.

Charts are saying that if we manage to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526. Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,

Beginning point of wave = 5032.40

Wave 1 = 5246.35

Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65

Those who are bullish in their nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

(If you think that other readers should also read this article then recommend this on google by clicking g+ link given below).

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates. Link – www.twitter.com/viecapital

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

27 August 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Stopping at 5371 may give us some choppy trading sessions before fresh wave of fall. Yes, fall will come, no matter if it tries to go near to 5450 again.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Nifty took support at 5371. It was exactly the midpoint of assumed fifth wave which has beginning point at 5294 and high at 5448.60. It was flip flop talk about stimulus in US stimulus package, one day hope rises and next day fed away.

We may see some higher beginning but rise will cause choppy moves only. It may not generate good trading opportunity. I like to add that if by any chance nifty slips below 5371-5369 then we can see a dip towards 5340 levels.

Most of the market men were having higher hopes for reforms from monsoon session of parliament but nothing is coming. Politics is busy with demand of prime ministers and denial. Parliament gets adjourned every day without work.

Stock market is still in wait and watch mode but I am repeating again, ‘nothing will come out’. They are busy in handling the allegation of corruption. There are more politics and less concern about economy.

There are few important resistances for global indices. Resistances for few indices are as follow – S&P 500 @ 1425, DOWJONES @ 13340 and DAX @ 7160. These indices are near to its resistances. We may see indices moving here and there. It will be silent week for the first half.

Wave development: -

Elliott waves are turning very critical now. You can able to see that now every single wave is contracting in nature. First rising wave started form 4531 has a life for 1100 points, and then next rising wave started from 4770 and has a life for 580 points. Next rising wave started from 5032 and has a life for 418 points only.

I like to add few more things for “reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247 points. Confirmation point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~) 83. It means 5279 + 83 = 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation rule to bet for 5526. As it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this close to close basis. (This is a “must know” concept).

Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27^th July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3^rd August 2012, we got a low of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.

This is encouraging with few challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will be lesser compared to past few waves.

Charts are saying that if we manage to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526. Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,

Beginning point of wave = 5032.40

Wave 1 = 5246.35

Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65

Those who are bullish in their nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

(If you think that other readers should also read this article then recommend this on google by clicking g+ link given below).

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates. Link – www.twitter.com/viecapital

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

24 August 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It has just missed 5450 as expected and then a fall. Now fall will continue up to 5340 if breaks 5390. I am expecting that 5450 will remain untested.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Nifty has slipped after hitting a high at 5448.60 levels. I have already quoted that it may try to take a move toward 5450 if stand above 5400. Well, now we need to focus on what is going to happen next?

I have also quoted that current rise would be ‘unreliable’. Look at global market. US market has slipped as hope for stimulus is dimming now. Even in India, hopes of reforms are going on back seat. One must note that it was rally driven by ‘hopes’ and ‘only hopes’. I have already warned too many times that policy makers are playing with the fire of stock market. These people can talk a lot but will do nothing.

Elliott waves are turning very critical now. You can able to see that now every single wave is contracting in nature. First rising wave started form 4531 has a life for 1100 points, and then next rising wave started from 4770 and has a life for 580 points. Next rising wave started from 5032 and has a life for 418 points only.

This kind of contraction is indicating that everything is not right in stock market. Although I cannot specifically point out what is wrong but charts are telling me that current wave formation can result a massive dip. When will it start? We will get those answers very soon. Who knows it might have already started.

For today, break below 5390 will give you levels of 5340 levels. I am strongly criticizing the way government is moving with its economic polices. That inactivity may cost a lot to stock price in coming days, weeks and months.

 

Wave development: -

I like to add few more things for “reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247 points. Confirmation point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~) 83. It means 5279 + 83 = 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation rule to bet for 5526. As it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this close to close basis. (This is a “must know” concept).

Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27^th July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3^rd August 2012, we got a low of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.

This is encouraging with few challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will be lesser compared to past few waves.

Charts are saying that if we manage to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526. Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,

Beginning point of wave = 5032.40

Wave 1 = 5246.35

Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65

Those who are bullish in their nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

 

(If you think that other readers should also read this article then recommend this on google by clicking g+ link given below).

 

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates. Link – www.twitter.com/viecapital

 

 

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

23 August 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: As long as it sustain above 5400, it is keeping scope for hit 5450. There are talks of fresh QE in US market. Rise above 5400 will be limited.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

When it was looking that global market is about to fall, US policy makers has played their dice. There are talks of fresh QE (quantitative easing). Most of the Asian indices are trading higher. If Dr.Manmohan Singh is underachiever then why cannot I use same term for Mr. Barak Omaba?

Well, I am still considering that 5450 is a likely target but will not easy to even touch. As long as Nifty sustain above 5400, this market will keep a scope for the test of 5450. Suppose, if by any chance Nifty cross above 5450 then it may try to move higher by further 25-30 points. Technical charts are saying for the target 5526 on the cross of 5450. (Remember ‘reverse H&S’ target is only at 5526 levels and unexpected is nothing in this market).

In the down side we can hope for 5340 to 5300 till the August month expiry. I have another important point about Indian market. Just a month back, people were talking about ‘beginning of reforms’. Where are those? Our parliament gets adjourned every single day without any work. CAG reports are surely damaging the image of India due to corruption issues. I can say that even if government allows FDI then also only handful of foreign people will be interested.

Problem of Indian market is not that money is not available (This is European problem). Problem with Indian economy is that we have shrinking business opportunity due to many policy reforms are in waiting from years and years.

Example – UPA ministers are them self accepting that they took 6 years to form a policy over coal block allocation. Tell me how long we took to write ‘constitution of India’?    

Wave development: -

I like to add few more things for “reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247 points. Confirmation point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~) 83. It means 5279 + 83 = 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation rule to bet for 5526. As it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this close to close basis. (This is a “must know” concept).

Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27^th July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3^rd August 2012, we got a low of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.

This is encouraging with few challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will be lesser compared to past few waves.

Charts are saying that if we manage to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526. Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,

Beginning point of wave = 5032.40

Wave 1 = 5246.35

Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65

Those who are bullish in their nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

(If you think that other readers should also read this article then recommend this on google by clicking g+ link given below).

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates. Link – www.twitter.com/viecapital

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

22 August 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I am still repeating – No easy deal above 5400 although technical charts are giving me target of 5450 with resistance at 5432 too. “Reverse H&S’ target = 5526.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Nifty has crossed 5400. Moreover, FII bought 141 crs and DII sold 141 crs. We have seen silence is mid cap and small indices. Silence on broader indices might be the first indication of tiredness of rise. I have already said that there will be no easy rise above 5400. It is completely true that technical charts are giving two targets; one is at 5450 and then 5526. We must note that to get a fall we have to see the failure of one resistance. Suppose if Nifty open below 5400 then story will remain same as of past few days.

Do take a note that we are getting one-third confirmation of ‘reverse H&S’ pattern which has target at 5526.  

Big question is will we get the pause or fall now? My answer is ‘yes’, we are close to those kind of development. Almost all global indices are on resistance. Even US market benchmark S&P 500 has tested 4 year’s high. Well, I have few important levels for Nifty. For supports, watch out for 5375 and 5350 levels. We are still having higher – high pattern so we must be careful in fall.

I am retaining my views about stocks. It will be stock specific deals but weaker stocks will remains weak and may fall even in consolidating market.

It will be hard to believe but we will see the beginning of a massive bearish cycle very soon which will have a capacity to shock everyone on the street. I will update on right time when it will begin. As of now DOW JONES has resistance @13340, DAX has resistance @7160, S&P 500 has resistance @ 1425.

Wave development: -

I like to add few more things for “reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247 points. Confirmation point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~) 83. It means 5279 + 83 = 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation rule to bet for 5526. As it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this close to close basis. (This is a “must know” concept).

Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27^th July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3^rd August 2012, we got a low of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.

This is encouraging with few challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will be lesser compared to past few waves.

Charts are saying that if we manage to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526. Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,

Beginning point of wave = 5032.40

Wave 1 = 5246.35

Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65

Those who are bullish in their nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

21 August 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I have repeated about 5400 marks many times in past few days. It slipped form 5400 and took the expected support 5340. Repeating – No easy deal above 5400.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I kept on quoting in last many trading sessions that rise in the zone of 5378 to 5400 will not be easy. Nifty hit a high at 5399.95 on Friday and then turn back. I have quoted about the importance of 5340 support. Nifty has recovered form those support. I am repeating that trades below 5340 will be the first sign of weakness from higher levels. Now I am sure that you must have understood the importance of 5400 levels.

Current wave trend is suggesting that 5 waves of rise might see completion. You can ask about the formation of ‘reverse H&S’ pattern. It has one-third confirmation above 5360 but that need to sustain. I am sensing that it is failing. Well, as usual wave theory is giving me a better indication.

When resistance is defined at 5400 then we must discuss the support on fall. (Take a note that above 5400, all these study will be invalid). First point of weakness will be just below 5340. We may see a drag towards 5280 (~5278) and then at 5240 levels.

Before you conclude anything great for trading then I must inform that we cannot get rid of choppy market movement.

Wave development: -

I like to add few more things for “reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247 points. Confirmation point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~) 83. It means 5279 + 83 = 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation rule to bet for 5526. As it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this close to close basis. (This is a “must know” concept).

Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27^th July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3^rd August 2012, we got a low of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.

This is encouraging with few challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will be lesser compared to past few waves.

Charts are saying that if we manage to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526. Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,

Beginning point of wave = 5032.40

Wave 1 = 5246.35

Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65

Those who are bullish in their nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

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17 August 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty fail to sustain in the zone of 5378 to 5400 levels. It seems that rise may remain tough. One must be cautious at these levels. Trading support at 5340 > 5280 > 5240.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Yesterday was the day when Nifty goes in consolidation with rise in Reliance. We must accept that Nifty fail to impress above 5378 even after crossing. Few days back I said that this rally will find tough resistance in the zone of 5378 to 5400.

I must accept that now it can only extremely strong global cues can push the market higher but we are missing those. We have seen dip in metal stocks yesterday which is indicating that we are little far away from further big rise. Still I cannot conclude that this market is turning weak. For any kind of remarkable dip we need some more confirmations.

Reverse H&S pattern is indicating for higher targets but those are not going to be easy one. We can expect trading resistance at 5390-5400 levels for today’s trading. Break below 5340 can be the first sign of weakness. On daily charts, we will have short term support at 5279 only.

I am repeating again for today also that performing blue-chip will not loose its shine so soon. One should be very careful in stock selection. It seems that we entered in a phase where stock market may refuse to accept positive cues. Be careful from mid cap and small cap stocks.

Wave development: -

I like to add few more things for “reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247 points. Confirmation point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~) 83. It means 5279 + 83 = 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation rule to bet for 5526. As it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this close to close basis. (This is a “must know” concept).

Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27^th July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3^rd August 2012, we got a low of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.

This is encouraging with few challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will be lesser compared to past few waves.

Charts are saying that if we manage to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526. Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,

Beginning point of wave = 5032.40

Wave 1 = 5246.35

Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65

Those who are bullish in their nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com