You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
When it was looking that global
market is about to fall, US policy makers has played their dice. There are
talks of fresh QE (quantitative easing). Most of the Asian indices are trading
higher. If Dr.Manmohan Singh is underachiever then why cannot I use same term
for Mr. Barak Omaba?
Well, I am still considering that
5450 is a likely target but will not easy to even touch. As long as Nifty
sustain above 5400, this market will keep a scope for the test of 5450. Suppose,
if by any chance Nifty cross above 5450 then it may try to move higher by
further 25-30 points. Technical charts are saying for the target 5526 on the cross
of 5450. (Remember ‘reverse H&S’ target is only at 5526 levels and
unexpected is nothing in this market).
In the down side we can hope for
5340 to 5300 till the August month expiry. I have another important point about
Indian market. Just a month back, people were talking about ‘beginning of
reforms’. Where are those? Our parliament gets adjourned every single day
without any work. CAG reports are surely damaging the image of India
Problem of Indian market is not that
money is not available (This is European problem). Problem with Indian economy
is that we have shrinking business opportunity due to many policy reforms are
in waiting from years and years.
Example – UPA ministers are them
self accepting that they took 6 years to form a policy over coal block
allocation. Tell me how long we took to write ‘constitution of India
Wave development: -
I like to add few more things for
“reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247 points. Confirmation
point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~) 83. It means 5279 + 83
= 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation rule to bet for 5526. As
it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this close to close basis. (This
is a “must know” concept).
Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27th
July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which
probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a
completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as
1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3rd August 2012, we got a low
of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.
This is encouraging with few
challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous
wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be
most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with
charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are
still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will
be lesser compared to past few waves.
Charts are saying that if we manage
to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and
shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which
should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526.
Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,
Beginning point of wave = 5032.40
Wave 1 = 5246.35
Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times
of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65
Those who are bullish in their
nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.
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Thanks & Regards,
Praveen Kumar
Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com
Mobile number – 09893369889
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