You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
Firstly, I have quoted for
resistance at 5449-5450. I have already said that this is ‘most unreliable’
rise. You can ask for reason. Just a fair question, what was the base of this
rise? Just hope and blind hope. Now we in the final count down of hopes for
Indian, European and American market. I have said this in past and repeating
again that policy makers are playing with the fire of stock market. They are
just buying time from stock market. They will not act on their words.
Elliott wave charts are suggesting
that that we are in the progression of wave ‘a’. There is no great indication
yet for the end of this wave. Based on the end point of wave ‘a’, we can calculate
the magnitude of next fall. I have those ideas but those are not suitable to
publish in advance as I require some confirmation.
Take a note that indices are not
reflecting the true pain of fall. Look at mid cap and small cap indices which are
falling with higher pace than blue chip index. One has to be ‘stock specific’
and make proper entry in the trade. This is not enough to get profit. You need
to give time to your trades, little more than normal.
If does not matter if I like or not,
if you like it or not, but we need to watch parliament too. Sought on CoalGate
will run as of past. Mr. Kapil Sibbal is saying that they cannot cancel coal
block allocation as country is already running short of coal production and
hence power.
At one go this comments look so good
and in favour of nation benefit. I am not supporting any political parties but I
have a simple question. Can only allocation is sufficient enough to fulfill
coal demand? Tell me how many companies have started production in last 6
years?
Do you know? If not then I am
telling you, just one (as per media report),in best case also those are just
fewer. So tell me, is it helping nation? Sorry, but I feel that ministers are
giving logics which are far away from financial world’s reality. My concern is
that India
Wave development: -
Elliott waves are turning very
critical now. You can able to see that now every single wave is contracting in
nature. First rising wave started form 4531 has a life for 1100 points,
and then next rising wave started from 4770 and has a life for 580
points. Next rising wave started from 5032 and has a life for 418 points
only.
I like to add few more things for
“reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247 points. Confirmation
point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~) 83. It means 5279 + 83
= 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation rule to bet for 5526. As
it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this close to close basis. (This
is a “must know” concept).
Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27th
July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which
probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a
completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as
1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3rd August 2012, we got a low
of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.
This is encouraging with few
challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous
wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be
most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with
charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are
still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will
be lesser compared to past few waves.
Charts are saying that if we manage
to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and
shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which
should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526.
Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,
Beginning point of wave = 5032.40
Wave 1 = 5246.35
Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times
of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65
Those who are bullish in their nature
should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.
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Praveen Kumar
Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com
Mobile number – 09893369889
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