13 June 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If bearish June factor has to rule then first indication may come this week. Advising caution, support 9570!!!

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Analysis for 13 June 2017: -

On 12 June 2017: FII Net Sold – 169.24 INR Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 63.11 Crs

Welcome back. I am coming after long time and I see the market where I left. It is dead from past 11 trading sessions. Once again people might start thinking that this may be the sign of weakness and June factor is also in line. Still I can suggest that the possibility is that market may not fall. So far, high point is only at 9709 and we are at 9616.  

We are heading towards second half of the month and I am advising caution as June used to be the month in favour of bears. Still, there is no great technical indication for toppy so far. Medium term technical support is at 9440 which is too far from current levels.

For today’s session, I am expecting market to open on gap on higher side as indicated by SGX Nifty. This may soon knock the door on higher side. It is strongly advisable not to add any kind of shorting as long as Nifty spot is staying above 9570 levels. I am expecting the retest of 9700+ levels sooner. I will be cautious if it breaks 9570 anytime from now but I do not think that it is going to happen easily or in normal circumstances.

Sectoral performance may go on flip flop mode time to time but overall buyers are still interested in market price. Pricing looks expensive but it is still attracting buyers. Can we expect reversal? Well, if this happens then it will be least expected. So far, nothing is suggesting for reversal but caution call is always alive.

Caution note is clear – first one has to watch for weakness on small cap and mid cap indices. Before top, there may be the days where mid cap and small cap indices will be negative and blue-chip index will maintain flat to positive note. I will look on small cap and mid cap index to compare relative under performance.

Strategy for Nifty June future – It is looking like to open around 9640-9650 levels and this must be considered as good opening. Well, I am still quoting a point as 9570 on Nifty June future too. If it breaks then it may be first sign of trading fall. On higher side a pause towards 9700 and not crossing 9710-9720 may result lack of buyers at higher end. Even if the fall comes, this may not able to chance market direction in medium to long term.   

BANK NIFTY June future – I cannot see any nearby possibility of big fall but rather it may register some profit taking from higher end. It is still trading at 23500. To be on the safer side, traders should avoid this index. If June factor has to rule in reverse way the way I am expecting then it can see the beginning by this week only. I will stay away from this index meantime and I will focus on nifty. Bank Nifty June future has support at 23200 for trading and this is 1% far from here. This index is turning heavy above 23500 irrespective of Nifty resilience.