29 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expiry day can be another shocking day. Very likely to see below 8000.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

29 December 2016: -

On 28 December 2016: FII Net Sold – 527.06 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 824.84 Crs

8100 is a high point on dot and it was quite expected. Well, high was good but closing turn worse and giving a sense that market has done with its recovery. We have derivative expiry for this month series. I am expecting that expiry should go below 8000 levels. Is this alarming expiry? I am not taking any view for January month so far but expiry is likely to be on weak note.

Usually, top and bottom used to be that levels where market does not used to stay. Recent top and bottom used to trade for more than expected time on intraday basis. It looks like market reverse every time after conviction.

For today’s trading I am expecting opening on weak to dull note. Technical support is at 8000 levels. If it breaks and sustain below 8000 levels then we can expect levels to go much lower under the expiry effect. Expiry day cannot be within the scope of prediction and I do not like to trade this day. Technical resistance is only at 8100. Somehow expiry is almost dull on month to month move. Still, second half of this month turn eventful and I am expecting the impact to be greater today.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – Nifty January month future is likely to be open around 8040 levels as indicated by SGX Nifty. Technical support is at 8030 to 8020 levels. If this breaks this support range then it has higher chance of giving up of 50-60 points. This is likely to happen in second half if it has to come. On higher side only 8100 and 8120 is meaningful resistance.  

BANK NIFTY – BANK NIFTY has also given up yesterday and closed on the levels which can be alarming. Technical support is at 17750. If it breaks 17750 then we can again expect lower levels. Can we expect things to be so easily on expiry day? Well, it may not be. Some tricky moves are very much likely. Technical resistance is at 18000.