16 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Be aware of “W” pattern on daily chart. Trading range of 8125 to 8275 is avoidable.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

16 December 2016: -

On 15 December 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 611.97 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 177.48 Crs

This flip flow continues and goes worse in last trading session. A strong 100 points of bounce from lower levels and that’s in just 15 minutes was much more than enough to shake any bear’s head. Well, hence I was not short at any point on Nifty future. A “W” pattern is visible now which was my expectation. I can say that market is not tradable even today.

It is simple that the range of 8275 to 8125 is not tradable. Can we expect the break sooner? Well, I feel that we can expect the break on down side only but it may happen next week only. It is strongly advisable not to deal many unless clear signal emerges. It is not that 40-50 points of moves are not coming but in is not in line to trade.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat opening. Thereafter, once again same thing is going to happen, bulls and bears fight which will not come to any conclusion. Without any conclusion I will not participate on market. I can say that one can keep an eye on 8100-8120 support band. If this breaks then only think to trade. On higher side, we are too far from comfort levels.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – I gave a support yesterday at 8120-8100 and Nifty took a “U” turn but gave up a big part in second half. This suggests me that up move will not be easier. Well, I still say that do not trade on dicey signals. “W” pattern will not give fruitful trade. I am expecting fall next week which should be the outcome of this consolidation.  

BANK NIFTY – My study remains same and my key point is 18300. I cannot trade long unless it takes out 18700 which is not going to be easy. Lower side support is at 18300 and we are close to these levels but can it give this downside easily. Let us see but I am biased towards bears to be bearish. I have yet to take bearish trade on this.