09 December 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I am expecting a top near 8300. Do not be buyer at higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

09 December 2016: -

On 08 December 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 698.86 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 64.32 Crs

Market is not disappointed after ECB meeting. Well, I can say that global sentiment is firm so far. Global sentiment is firm and one can say that it is saving the possible fall in Indian market. So it is just saving the fall. Based on Elliott wave count I can say that it is going to make a top here and there sooner. It may be the last day of rise which can come today. I strongly believe that a down move will start sooner in second half of the month.

For today’s trading I am expecting this up move to continue if this can sustain above 8250 levels. What can be the possible top point? My anticipation is that top can be near to 8300. I am keeping a room of 20 points as margin of error from 8300 levels. Technical support is at 8200 levels. As long as it is above 8200 we cannot get any firm sell signal but sell signal can emerge from higher levels.

It is strongly advisable that market may give a top sooner so do not take many long at these levels. December is not going to be comfortable month for trading.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty December future – SGX Nifty is now trading above 8280 and we will see opening around those levels. Nifty Future can come around 8300 but much extension may not be possible. Technical support is at 8230 and then at 8200 levels. I have a soft forwarded long which I will give up at higher levels. We have yet to decide if we can think of shorting at higher levels.

BANK NIFTY – I need to repeat that above 18300 it can chance of hitting 18700. Below 18300 it can open room for 18000 levels. If a firm move has to come then it should settle above 18700 levels. Can we expect this kind of strength sooner? I do not think so. This can be a better instrument for fall rather than betting for a rise.