21 November 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Will Nifty test 8000 or will Nifty break 8000?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

21 November 2016: -

On 18 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 926.32 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1143.42 Crs

I have a simple comparison to show trouble for Indian market. S&P USA has all time at 2193 and it is still at 2182 now. We have all time high at 9100+ and we are now near to 8100. Do not think that this under performance is an opportunity to buy. It is reverse. It may be opportunity to sell. Never think that all indices in the world will necessarily move parallel to each other.

Let, us focus on Indian indices. Nifty is failing to take support at 8100 with is giving an alarm for the test of 8000 levels. I am still not saying that bounce will not come. What I am saying is that market is failing to give a sign of bounce and shorting without bounce is giving a higher stop loss. Hence, we cannot trade long or short at current levels.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat opening but I am not very convinced for the bounce yet although I have soft long on index which I may give up. Let us see if we can get support or Nifty will hit 8000. What market is needed as booster dose is – Rate cut. If bounce comes from 8000 levels then also it should give some remarkable recovery based on wave’s formation.

Well, take a note – we may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty November future – I have no trade on index right now. I am expecting a recovery based on Elliott wave levels but we have no concrete sign so far. If slide continues then it can be bleeding. 101% this may not be time to do many adventures. I cannot say about exact levels for support. It may be at 8050 or 8000. Depending on outcome I will decide by next course of action.

BANK NIFTY – I have no great view on Bank nifty. I am not that firm on my view for bounce now. Today is the last day. If it comes then it is fine else I may look to trade short. This may not be easy to short without any bounce but traders will not left with many choice. Below 19000, who knows what kind of levels will start to come.